The 2024 Stanley Cup Final had the makings for a classic series between two elite teams, but has not lived up to the hype as the Panthers have owned all of the key moments in each matchup.
The Panthers will look to become the 20th team to complete a sweep in the Cup Final, and is still priced as a slight underdog in this matchup. Of the 28 previous teams to hold a 3-0 lead, 20 (71%) have won Game 4. Only the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs have ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win the Stanley Cup.
Let's create a Panthers vs Oilers same-game parlay for Game 4.
NHL Predictions: SGP for Panthers vs. Oilers Game 4
My Panthers vs Oilers same game parlay for tonight is a three-legger, and will target the game script in which the Panthers have found success in this series.
- Panthers Moneyline (+100)
- Sergei Bobrovsky Over 25.5 Saves (-120)
- Evan Bouchard Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+140)
Parlay Odds: +550 via bet365
There are some positives to point to for the Oilers thus far, which are are contributing to the fact to oddsmakers' reasoning for the Panthers still being slight underdogs in tonight's matchup. The Oilers own more high danger chances in the series, and have played to a 50.34% expected goal share. Edmonton has generated 27.42 shots for per 60, while allowing only 23.85 shots against per 60.
Sergei Bobrovsky has outplayed Stuart Skinner significantly, and has seen his chances of winning the Conn Smythe trophy skyrocket as a result. Skinner has faced far more chances coming on complete defensive breakdowns though, in which no goalie on earth would have much chance.
SAM BENNETT ROOFS IT 😱
CATS TAKING OVER GAME 3 😼 pic.twitter.com/8zNBMJPGVQ
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) June 14, 2024
While the Panthers are spending more time defending, they still aren't offering the same kind of critical mistakes. This Sam Bennett goal is a good example of the difference, and if Bobrovsky faced this kind of breakdown, he wouldn't save it either.
It seems logical that we will continue seeing this kind of game script in tonight's game. The Panthers may once again spend more time in their defensive zone and allow more total shots against, but find a way to create an equal or greater amount of true scoring chances.
Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci have both been exposed consistently in the defensive zone this postseason, but the Oilers have had enough positives to overcome their breakdowns. One of the main positives to help hide Nurse and Ceci's struggles has been the incredible play of Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm — who have played a ton of minutes this postseason.
It looks like Bouchard and Ekholm are running out of gas, and both have offered up far more concerning defensive play over the last two matchups.
Backing the Panthers to hoist the Cup tonight looks to be a good way to kick off our SGP.
As explained above, it does seem probable that the Oilers will be able to generate a strong total of shots on goal in this matchup. Bobrovsky has averaged 28 saves per game in this series, and in a winning game script like we are targetting, should be a safe bet to push past that mark once again.
Florida is content to spend some time in a defensive shell in leading game scripts. We have seen that so far this series, and it should remain true tonight. I'll bet McDavid and the Oilers go down swinging with an urgent effort here that involves lots of chances created, but I'm not sure that will mean getting the right result with how Bobrovsky is playing.
While it's been clear that Bouchard's play has tailed off in this series, he is still going to continue playing an absurd amount of minutes as he is still the best option available.
Bouchard has averaged over 28 minutes per game in this series, and has generated a 12 shots in three games so far. His 37 shot attempts pass all skaters by a wide margin. Bouchard will always have a well lower % of shot attempts reach the target than average because many are simply focused on not hitting the first blocker's shin-pads. Even still, he should have a good chance of pushing past 3.5 shots on goal in tonight's game.
If the Oilers are chasing the game as we are hoping, it should give us a good chance of cashing Bobrovsky's save total, and Bouchard's shot prop.
