Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final is set for Saturday night as the Vegas Golden Knights host the Florida Panthers. And with Game 1 comes plenty of angles to sift through on PrizePicks.
But first, a quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: You can combine up to five different player squares to pay out up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money if you do not nail every pick. A Power Play is an all-or-nothing endeavor.
Here’s how I would approach Saturday's Game 1 (8 p.m. ET, TNT).
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Jonathan Marchessault + Aleksander Barkov More Than 0.5 Goals
We just need one of these two to bury the puck for this entry to go green. First, let's look at Vegas forward Jonathan Marchessault.
After a quiet opening series against the Winnipeg Jets, Marchessault has exploded over the past two rounds. Not only has he scored nine goals over his past 10 games, but he leads the Knights in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at five-on-five.
The Barbeshev-Eichel-Marchessault line has been — by far — the most dominating line for Vegas this postseason, with all due respect to the fourth line (Carrier-Roy-Kolesar), which has also played extremely well. That aforementioned first line has generated a 60.5% xGoals% this postseason with an excellent 3.45 xGF/60.
Meanwhile, Barkov is also coming off his best series of the postseason as he scored two goals and added three assists during Florida's four-game Eastern Conference Final sweep of the Carolina Hurricanes.
Sergei Bobrovsky More Than 29.5 Saves
The Panthers likely aren't even in this spot if not for the stellar play of goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. He is putting together one of the best stretches of goaltending I've ever seen. It remains to be seen if this play is sustainable, but we're going to keep backing him until we see otherwise.
Over the past two rounds, Bobrovsky is 8-1 with a .954 save percentage (SV%) and a 1.51 goals against average (GAA). His underlying metrics are just as strong as he's saved a ridiculous 19.7 goals above expected.
That is an absolutely absurd stat, and it's also an indictment on Florida's weak blue-line play. The Panthers not only allow Bobrovsky to get peppered in each game, but a lot of those shots are in high-danger scoring areas.
With that in mind, even if Bobrovsky regresses, he should still see a minimum 35 shots. He has recorded at least 30 saves in eight of his past 10 starts.
William Carrier More Than 3 Hits
In the first section, I alluded to how tremendous the Knights' fourth line (Carrier-Roy-Kolesar) has been this postseason. They are playing well in all three zones, and lead all Vegas forward lines in xGoals%.
Therefore, even in a Cup Final where most teams shrink the rotations and lean heavily on the top six forwards, we should expect coach Bruce Cassidy to keep a healthy balance and roll all four lines. He has a tremendous amount of confidence in all four lines, which is completely justified given how well every member of this team has played.
With that said, William Carrier is going to continue to get strong minutes, making three hits easily attainable. He has recorded at least three hits in each of his past three games and has surpassed 11 minutes of ice time in three of his past four.
This line is going to keep getting looks, and if Carrier is out there, he will be looking to play physical.
