Check out Tony Sartori's Oilers vs. Panthers prediction with a same-game parlay for Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final on Monday, June 24.
Game 7 will get underway Monday night (8 p.m. ET, ABC & ESPN+) at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida, with the Florida Panthers facing the Edmonton Oilers. The Panthers return south of the border after blowing a 3-0 series lead and now find themselves in a winner-takes-all situation.
The latest Oilers vs. Panthers odds have Florida priced as a slight -113 favorite while the over/under is set at 5.5 for the clash.
Find out my Game 7 prediction and tail my +1840 same-game parlay (SGP) at FanDuel for tonight's big game.
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Oilers vs. Panthers Prediction: Same-Game Parlay for Game 7
My Oilers vs. Panthers same-game parlay for Game 7 tonight is a three-legger, and it focuses on two player props and an alternate total:
- Sam Reinhart anytime goalscorer (+175)
- Evan Bouchard anytime goalscorer (+500)
- Over 4.5 (-235)
Sam Reinhart anytime goalscorer (+175)
Sam Reinhart is one of the league's most dangerous goalscorers. He scored nearly 60 times in the regular season and ranks second on the team in postseason goals. With that said, his underlying metrics suggest that he is still due for offensive positive regression.
There is not a single skater on the Florida Panthers with lower goals above expected (-1.7) at 5-on-5 than Reinhart this postseason, which is pretty remarkable given his success. I am isolating performance at 5-on-5 because, among the 16 playoff teams, the Edmonton Oilers rank 11th this postseason in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at even-strength.
Reinhart continues to generate an abundance of high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5, which should present a problem for an Edmonton blue line that is surrendering those type of opportunities at a relatively high rate.
Evan Bouchard anytime goalscorer (+500)
This play is the reason for the elevated 19/1 payout in this same game parlay, but I just think 5/1 is far too long of a number to pass up on Edmonton defenseman Evan Bouchard. There is perhaps nobody less scared to shoot than Bouchard, whose entire existence on the Oilers seems to be to look for one-timers at the point.
Due to his position, it is normal for a player like Bouchard to see an increase in the number of his shots blocked. However, the rate of which he his shots have been blocked this postseason has been absurd – and unsustainable.
Bouchard has seen 92 of his shots blocked this postseason, which is 42 (!) more than the next highest guy. That is potentially 3.83 shots on goal per game that have been blocked, which is a noticeable increase from his regular season average of 2.28.
Point being, those shots are due to get through more, and if he is getting three or more shots on net in Game 7, I think it is more probable than his +500 odds suggest that one gets by goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky.
Over 4.5 (-235)
If we are backing a guy from each team to score, then a highly correlated outcome would be for there to be at least five goals scored. There have been five or more goals scored in each of the past five games in this series, and despite this being a Game 7 of the Cup Final, I still think these offenses are so good that the trend of high-scoring games will continue.
Bobrovsky has just not had his best stuff over Florida's three-game losing skid. He possesses a troubling .793 SV% and 5.06 GAA over that stretch.
On the other hand, Stuart Skinner has played well between the pipes for Edmonton. However, this is still a guy with a mediocre .901 SV% through 22 starts this postseason, and the Oilers' propensity to surrender high-danger scoring chances worries me about the 25-year-old's potential performance in a high-stakes Game 7.
The Prediction: Oilers vs. Panthers Game 7 SGP (+1840 at FanDuel)
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