The NHL Western Conference Finals head to a pivotal Game 5 knotted at two games apiece.
It's easy to see that an even series score is quite indicative of how the series has been played thus far. Every game has been a back-and-forth affair with a number of blown leads — but it would be fair to say that the better team has won each game thus far.
Let's dive into my Oilers vs. Stars best bets and Game 5 predictions.
Oilers vs. Stars Odds
| Oilers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -240 | 5.5 -120o / 100u | +110 |
| Stars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +195 | 5.5 -120o / 100u | -130 |
While the Oilers may have more specific flaws among the rosters in this series, the totality of their game has been equally effective to that of the Stars.
When a team is taking on a top-heavy roster featuring two top-five players in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, it can expose other roster flaws despite not necessarily being the better side.
The Stars feature a significantly deeper offensive core, particularly with Roope Hintz back in the mix and playing relatively well. They also own two elite defensive pairings compared to the Oilers, who have only received strong results out of the first pairing of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard.
Still, it's been the Oilers who own a 53.88% expected goals share across all strengths in the series, and the eye test agrees that they've controlled more of the overall play.
The Oilers' vaunted power play has yet to record a single goal in the series, but it's clear that Edmonton is carrying play better than expected at even strength.
Jake Oettinger has been the superior netminder this postseason and has been the sharper goaltender in the series with a .907 save percentage. Stuart Skinner has not been as sharp with an .878 save percentage in this series and a -1.0 GSAx in the postseason altogether.
Chris Tanev left Game 4 after taking a shot to the ankle but now sounds likely to play in this contest. His ability to play at a high level is critical for the Stars, as he had been thriving while receiving mainly defensive zone starts against superstar forwards throughout the playoffs.
Home teams continue to display zero home-ice advantage whatsoever in these playoffs, which is another key point to an argument that the Oilers' price is too long in this matchup. Home-ice advantage is clearly being baked into this line.
The Oilers closed at -135 in Game 4 and won fairly convincingly, and Tanev's potential absence for the Stars is the only injury news between these two games.
Road teams are up to 43-34 this postseason for a 12.9% ROI and went 42-36 last postseason. As a general rule, paying a tax to bet home sides hasn't been worth it unless you have a very strong conviction toward that home team winning.
And to me, the causation of this trend is fairly clear. Once teams have equal travel and rest schedules — as we see in the postseason — the heavier home and road splits we see during the regular season go out the window.
So, knowing that the venue change likely means next to nothing, I think the first four games of this series have shown that the Oilers hold value at anything better than +105.
Pick: Oilers ML +105 or Better
Leon Draisaitl
Anytime Goalscorer +150
There's no debate that Draisaitl has the ability to elevate his game to a higher level come playoff time, which is pretty crazy considering the ridiculous numbers he puts up every regular season. Bettors who have not overthought these square bets on Draisaitl to keep producing in each of the last two postseasons have been heavily rewarded.
Draisaitl has scored 23 goals in just 28 games over the last two playoffs. He's scored a single goal in 13 of those 28 games.
While he can score in a number of different ways, Draisaitl's sharp-angle one-timers from the right side of the ice have been the most difficult for opponents to take away. It's so hard for teams to cheat enough toward Draisaitl to take this shot away, and it's one reason his production hasn't dipped in the postseason like the vast majority of star forwards.
Chances are Draisaitl and McDavid are going to play big minutes in this matchup. The Oilers' power play also hasn't had many opportunities to work and hasn't been overly sharp when they've received chances in this series.
I'm not convinced the Stars have actually solved the Oilers' man advantage, though, and I'll bet Edmonton can generate chances more effectively on the power play tonight.
Draisaitl is priced at +150 to score in this game at bet365, which is longer than it was in Game 4 and longer than it has been in the majority of matchups the last two postseasons.
I'm not convinced his number deserves to be that long, and I think there's value in backing Draisaitl to continue his absurd playoff goal production in this pivotal Game 5.
Pick: Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goalscorer +150 (Play to +140)
