The Carolina Hurricanes will look to avoid going into what would likely be an insurmountable 3-0 hole to the Florida Panthers on Monday night in Sunrise.
The Hurricanes have done a good job of limiting Florida's chances on goal inside regulation, which is the key idea behind this same-game parlay for Game 3.
Check out my same game parlay for Hurricanes vs. Panthers Game 3 below, which includes picks for Carolina, Frederik Andersen and Matthew Tkachuk.
Same Game Parlay: Panthers vs. Hurricanes Game 3
The Parlay (+350 Bet365)
- Carolina Hurricanes moneyline
- Frederik Andersen under 28.5 saves
- Matthew Tkachuk under 3.5 shots on goal
Carolina Hurricanes Moneyline
Even accounting for the Hurricanes' below-average shot quality and finishing ability, what they have done so far in this series could easily have led to a 2-0 lead. That makes me excited to get the Canes at -110 in Game 3.
Carolina leads on expected goals by 3.75 based upon MoneyPuck's model and by 4.39 per NST's model in the series.
Carolina has always been an analytical darling, and the games have been closer than that massive gap in expected goals suggests. Still, I believe the Panthers' middling defensive play is eventually going to lead to some worse results.
Since Game 1 of the Toronto series, Sergei Bobrovsky has played to a +18.45 goals saved above expected rating. Even for a guy who has won two Vezina Trophies, this kind of run is unheard of.
If Carolina can control play at a similar rate in tonight's contest, it should mean a better result and would likely set up the rest of our parlay.
Frederik Andersen Under 28.5 Saves
Carolina has proven to be the best defensive team in hockey over the last two seasons. Despite the losing results, that strength has shined through in the series so far.
In regulation the Canes allowed 20 shots against in Game 1 and 22 shots against in Game 2. They have allowed just 2.19 xGA/60 in the series. My belief is that Carolina will continue to limit the Panthers' shot totals at even strength in this matchup, and I feel confident they will control more of the play again.
This bet is a good way to target those ideas. It is not ideal in terms of game script to bet this prop with a Carolina win. However, I also feel that 28.5 is way too high a number considering how Carolina has defended so far in this series, so we can live with that.
Matthew Tkachuk Under 3.5 Shots on Goal
While it seems scary to bet on the guy with two overtime winners in the series going under 3.5 shots on goal, the case is clear that 3.5 is too high a number for Tkachuk right now in such a tightly contested series.
Counting six overtimes, Tkachuk has averaged just three shots on goal this postseason, and he has hit the over 3.5 only five out of 14 games.
In this series, he has just put up just seven shots on goal in just over seven periods of hockey. In the opening two contests, Carolina actually did a great job of limiting his chances inside of regulation, though it is easy to forget that considering the way the games ended.
This leg works well with our Andersen save total. If Carolina can bring an elite defensive performance, it could be enough to cash all three legs of our parlay.
