The NHL's Eastern Conference Final begins on Thursday night with Florida Panthers vs. Carolina Hurricanes. Both teams love to play with a heavy forecheck and aggressive style and will likely try to set the tone early.
How this series ultimately plays out is debatable, but the potential is there for games to be more high scoring than oddsmakers expect — the Game 1 betting total as of writing is 5.5.
Check out my same game parlay for Panthers vs. Hurricanes Game 1 below, which includes picks for Brent Burns, Sebastian Aho and the total.
Same Game Parlay: Panthers vs. Hurricanes Game 1
The Parlay (+450 Bet365)
- Alternative Game Total Over 4.5
- Brent Burns Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
- Sebastian Aho Over 2.5 Shots on Goal; Over 0.5 Points
Alternative Total Over 4.5
The Panthers haven't defended well this postseason. They've allowed 3.70 xGA/60, which is the worst mark of all 16 playoff teams.
Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has been incredible with a +9.3 GSAx and .918 save % in 10 appearances, but those marks are likely to regress. Bobrovsky's GSAx against Toronto was the stretch he's had since 2018.
Florida has struggled badly on penalty kills during the postseason, with a success rate of 65.8%. Statistics show referees are more likely to call games tight early in series.
That point has been true with the Panthers, who took 16 minor penalties in Games 1 and 2 in their encounters with Toronto and Boston. Florida and Carolina will play with an edge on Thursday night and we could see more power plays than usual.
The Panthers will create chaos with their heavy forecheck, and attempt to use that to create turnovers in the most dangerous areas of the ice. Carolina's defensive core manages the puck tremendously, but it still is reasonable to think the Panthers can create some problems with their aggressive style.
Brent Burns Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
The Panthers will likely prove to be a better target for the Hurricanes' volume shooters than the Devils or Islanders.
Florida has allowed 33.48 shots against per 60 this postseason, which is the third-highest mark of all playoff teams. We want to target Hurricanes shooters in this spot, particularly players who skate on the top power-play unit.
Brent Burns' 21.66 shot attempts per 60 is 10th among skaters who've played over 100 minutes in the postseason — he's done that while averaging close to 24 minutes per game. He's averaged 3.72 shots per game this postseason, but I actually believe he will trend over that in this series.
Sebastian Aho Over 2.5 Shots on Goal; Over 0.5 Points
Carolina's top even-strength unit — Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis and Stefan Noesen — should be able to do damage at five on five.
Aho is trending lower than normal in terms of shots on goal, but Game 1 sets up as a good bounce-back spot. Backing Jarvis, who also plays top-line and in the top power-play unit, could be another solid option.
Aho will also skate with Carolina's top power-play unit, which could be well situated to work often versus the Panthers' weak penalty kill. He has 10 points in 11 playoff games after a regular season with 67 points in 75 games.
If Carolina scores three or more goals as I am expecting, Aho should be involved.
