What has been an incredibly entertaining first round of the NHL playoffs will come to a conclusion Monday night as the Devils host the Rangers for Game 7. Road teams are 2-0 this season in Game 7s and have been extremely profitable this postseason.
We're going to look for that to continue with this single-game parlay.
In the last two postseasons, New York has shown the ability to hang in contests behind the exceptional play of Igor Shesterkin and the ability to find opportunistic goals going the other way despite not holding a ton of the overall play.
That's the angle we're going to target in Game 7 with our well-correlated single-game parlay.
Single Game Parlay: Rangers vs. Devils
The Parlay (+700 at bet365):
- Alt. Total Under 7.5
- New York Rangers ML
- Igor Shesterkin Over 29.5 Saves
- Jack Hughes Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
- Nico Hischier Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Alt. Total Under 7.5
It's rarely hard to make the case for a Game 7 under in the NHL, and I believe that remains the case in this matchup.
As a general rule, lower scorelines in the NHL come from more fundamentally sound gameplay, and not the opposite. Players never want to be the ones to make mistakes, and this typically leads to more conservative, cagey matchups.
Goals should be very tough to come by tonight, and I believe the highest-scoring scenario is a 3-3 tie, which just barely pushes the total of 6.5, or maybe an empty net situation ending in 5-2.
Backing the under by itself is no doubt a very reasonable look, and if you wanted to get a little more aggressive with this parlay, playing under 6.5 or 5.5 would make sense.
Game 6's 5-2 scoreline was the highest number we've seen in this series. It would be shocking to see that mark surpassed tonight, which makes an easy case for this leg.
New Jersey has defended quite well since the start of Game 3 and has allowed Akira Schmid to shine behind its strong defensive play. I'm not expecting that to change in Game 7.
At the other end, we know it will be extremely tough to break through against an in-form Shesterkin. Shesterkin has played to a league-leading +7.3 GSAx in the postseason and owns a .939 save percentage.
New York Rangers ML
This game is going to be extremely divisive for all bettors, fans and analysts depending on where certain strengths are rated by each person.
As expected, the Devils have controlled more of the overall play in this series at even strength with a 54.6% expected even strength goal share. Factoring in special teams, the Devils own a 51.6% expected goal share.
On paper, it's easy to say the Devils are more well-rounded and that there's a meaningful edge with their roster, which holds several more dominant two-way forwards. However, New York proved last season how easily it can mitigate those edges and hang in with a relatively modest share of the overall play.
With Igor Shesterkin in net, it's all about not making extreme breakdowns
If the Rangers don't allow many breakaways, odd-man rushes and passes through the box in the zone, Shesterkin could become a massive factor. That's a gigantic edge in what will likely be a very closely contested Game 7 in which neither team should make many mistakes.
It's easy to forget the Rangers got caved in far worse last year versus the Pens before taking Game 7 in overtime. They also found a way in Game 7 on the road versus an elite Carolina side.
The way those two games played out is exactly the way we want tonight to play out to cash this single-game parlay.
If New York can stake an early lead, it sets up the rest of our longshot extremely well. I like taking a chance on the more experienced Rangers to own the moment and play a relatively mistake-free game in this huge spot.
Igor Shesterkin Over 29.5 Saves
As discussed, I like the Rangers to win this game despite the fact they may not control the overall play. If we get into a situation where the Rangers are leading by one or two goals for the vast majority of the game, that will go a long way to cashing this saves prop, our shot props, and obviously, the Rangers moneyline.
New Jersey has put up 32.3 shots on goal per game over the last three matchups in this series. If it's forced to push for offense late in this game, 35 shots on goal should be a pretty safe bet. It put up 17 shots on goal in the third period of Game 6, and if this game goes how we want, that could be the case tonight.
Jack Hughes Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
Hughes' dynamic offensive play has led to a ton of shots and shot attempts all series long. He has put up 4.8 shots on goal per game in this series so far.
If the Devils need offense late, we know he will play huge minutes, so targeting the most prolific Devils shooter makes sense for our game script here.
Nico Hischier Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
New Jersey captain Nico Hischier has been the most consistent Devil on the shot prop side of things, cashing the over 2.5 in five of the six matchups.
Hischier, Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier have been the best line at even strength in the series, generating a ridiculous 4.58 xGoals per 60.
