It's often debatable whether or not the NHL Finals is truly featuring the two best teams in hockey. Due to a combination of awful injury luck, variance and a controversial bracket setup, we end up with one lesser team in the Stanley Cup Final.
That's not the case this year. The Oilers were in large the most popular pick to win the Cup this season. They struggled early on, but ultimately finished with 104 points and a +57 goal differential. Edmonton finished the regular season with the top expected goal share in hockey, and has been a deserving winner in all three postseason series.
The Panthers probably were not the best team in the East last season, and realistically were just happy to be there in the final. That's not the case this season, as they appear to be a far superior team. Florida put up 110 points and a +68 goal differential. The Panthers ranked second to only Edmonton in expected goal share, and were also without question deserving winners in all three rounds.
This has the makings of being one of the better Cup Finals in recent memory, and I'm excited to lay out my best bets for the series, as well as Oilers vs Panthers Game 1 in this article.
Of the many storylines entering this series, the NHL's best player looking to claim his first Stanley Cup might be the most interesting one. Since being drafted first overall in Sunrise in 2015, McDavid has earned three Hart Trophies and won the Art Ross five times.
Everybody knows his legacy is not complete without a Cup win though. We should expect an incredible showing in the Final as he looks to solidify his place as an all-time great.
McDavid has put up 31 points in the playoffs thus far, which is three ahead of Leon Draisaitl, and 12 points clear of any Panthers skater. During the regular season, McDavid proved to be a far better player defensively than in previous seasons, and he has carried that into the playoffs.
At even strength, the Oilers own a 57.2% expected goal share with McDavid on the ice, and he's been far more than a guy who's just racking up points on the power play.
The Panthers are the deeper of the two teams to be sure, which is one of the main reasons Florida is favored. If the Oilers pull out the series, it would be pretty shocking if we aren't talking about an excellent showing from McDavid as the main reason why.
McDavid should enter this series with a huge lead in the race for this trophy, so any kind of solid performance should be enough to win this award.
It's important to consider that given McDavid's reputation and overall significance to the sport, he will likely receive some leniency from the PHWA (Professional Hockey Writers' Association) if it becomes somewhat debatable who the most deserving winner is, too.
It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to see McDavid become the first player on a losing team to win the Conn Smythe since J.S. Giguere, which adds a little value to this bet in my eyes.
There is value backing McDavid to win this award down to the current +190.
The Pick: Connor McDavid Conn Smythe (Playoff MVP) +190 (bet365)
Oddsmakers continue to underrate the difference in early-series hockey vs. late-series hockey, and there does appear to be actual causation to a lot of the betting trends which have been effective. Playoff totals have followed a very consistent rhythm, with Games 1-4 trending toward overs and Games 5-7 trending toward unders.
The Oilers offense has generated more chances than any team in the league this season. The Panthers are the best defensive side in the league, but still, none of the teams they have faced thus far offer offensive play close to that of the Oilers. The Bruins, Rangers and Lightning all offer drastically less punch offensively at even strength.
The Panthers feature a deep offensive core of their own, and should be able to make life hell on the Oilers' second and third defensive pairings. Look for the Panthers' heavy forecheck to expose some of the Oilers lesser defenders, particularly the freshly reunited defense pairing of Cody Ceci and Darnell Nurse, which has been a train wreck.
Typically, we see teams be more willing to risk penalties trying to set a physical tone early on in series, as well as referees calling games with a tighter whistle. Increased man advantage time is another reason for the heavy gap in game totals from Games 1-4 and 5-7 in playoff hockey.
The last seven Game 1s of the Stanley Cup Final have averaged 7.00 goals per game, with just one staying under the betting total.
This specific matchup looks like a good time to target that trend with a high-event Oilers side kicking off what should be an excellent Cup Final.
