Check out my favorite NHL best bets for Saturday, as the Stars look to eliminate the Kraken.
NHL Best Bets for Saturday, May 13
Adam Larsson Over 1.5 Shots on Goal -135, Anytime Goalscorer +1000
| Team vs. Team | Stars vs Kraken |
| Puck Drop | 7 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Larsson is first and foremost a defensive-minded blue-liner who is not known for creating much at the other end of the rink. However, he's pouring attempts on goal at a ridiculous clip in this series with 29 shots in five games versus Dallas and has 11 of those shots reach the target.
Seattle moves the puck well in transition and create a high danger chance for a
SEATTLE
KRAKEN
GOAL!
Adam Larsson makes this a two-goal game.#SeaKraken trail 3-1 pic.twitter.com/XfIcFv0aX7
— x – Davy Jones' Locker Room (@DavyJonesLR) May 12, 2023
Larsson leads the Kraken in ice time this postseason at close to 25 minutes per game. We should count on him and Vince Dunn to play huge minutes again tonight as Seattle's top pair in defense. It's clear that Larsson is more involved on the offensive front right now and that the Kraken will often be forced to settle for shots from the point with how Dallas is defending.
This is a very playable number on Larsson to record two shots on goal, and I also believe betting him to score at +1000 is worth a smaller play.
Pick: Adam Larsson Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-140) |
Pick: Adam Larsson Anytime Goalscorer (+1000) |
Jared McCann Over 2.5 Shots on Goal inside Regulation -144
| Team vs. Team | Stars vs Kraken |
| Puck Drop | 7 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
At the end of the regular season, bettors' eyes would have lit up to see McCann priced at -154 on over 2.5 shots on goal, as his shot prop line had settled upon 3.5 nightly.
There are two differences between those games late in the regular season and now that are helping hold this line where it is: The Stars are an elite defensive team, and McCann has been skating in a fourth-line role since returning.
Neither of those factors has made a difference in McCann's first two games of the series. He recorded three shots and six attempts in just 13:11 of time on ice in Game 4. In Game 5, his time on ice rose to 17:33 and he recorded four shots on goal from five attempts.
It's clear that Kraken coach Dave Hakstol wanted to let his top forward slowly settle in as he returned to the lineup after injury, which is why he was playing on the fourth line in Game 4 and to start Game 5. As the Kraken trailed in Game 5, McCann was used more often away from the fourth line and was relied upon more heavily.
It would make sense to see McCann reunited with Jordan Eberle and Matty Beniers on the top line for the Kraken's win-or-go-home matchup. If not, I imagine Seattle will find ways to keep its top scorer highly involved.
This is a playable number for McCann to record three shots on goal.
Pick: Jared McCann Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-154) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Under 5.5 (+105)
| Team vs. Team | Stars vs Kraken |
| Puck Drop | 7 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
Most analysts thought this series would average well below 5.5 goals, and that betting the under would be highly profitable. That is yet to be the case, but tonight seems like a good time to buy back in with that idea.
As the stakes rise later on in playoff rounds, NHL totals tend to trend downward. Goals in hockey are more likely to come because someone made a mistake defensively and not due to an offensive player coming up with a moment of brilliance.
It's standard for teams to play with a conservative mindset in these potential series-clinching matchups. Nobody wants to be the guy who lost his man, which leads to a season-ending goal, and often times defensive mistakes become far harder to come by.
Stars netminder Jake Oettinger has not been at his sharpest so far in this series, which has been part of the causation of the higher totals. Over a larger sample that is unlikely to continue, though, and Oettinger surely still deserves to be viewed as an elite netminder.
My colleague Tony Sartori writes about how he likes Seattle's team total to go under here, and I believe that is a solid option.
The play of Philipp Grubauer in Seattle's goal is far more concerning, and it is less of a guarantee he will bounce back. I am willing to risk that, though, as I think the Kraken are to insulate him with an excellent defensive performance.
