Have this at 45.3. Texans set up well for unders, but the Chiefs' offense was very efficient down the stretch, especially after Marquise Brown returned.

Highest total I've ever projected by a good amount. I have it at 58.3. No precedent for whether this is a good bet, but I'm fine with it.

Has gone over this in 4 of 6 full games since he got healthier off the rib injury. The Lions let up the most Rushing EPA to quarterbacks of any playoff team during the regular season.

Montgomery practiced in full and wasn't on the final injury report. He traditionally plays the first series for the Lions, which is how he scored the first touchdown in 6 of 14 games this year. I think sportsbooks are under-accounting for the order in which the Lions use their backs, leading to value in this specific market.

Ran more routes than Austin Ekeler last week (17 to 13) and turned 5 targets into 22 yards. Has gone over 8.5 receiving yards in 4 of 7 full games with Ekeler even though he sat most of the second half in two of those (a blowout win in one, and they were playing for just seeding in Week 18).

Have this at 53.8 despite 9 mph winds in Buffalo. Happy to be able to sit back and root for points in what should be an incredible game.

Has scored a rushing touchdown in 22 of 36 games since the start of the tush push era.

Has done this in 4 of 7 career playoff games, including last week. Had 10 designed rush attempts there, his second time this year topping 7.

Has done this in 6 of 16 games this year and set a new season-high with 23 carries last week despite sitting most of the fourth quarter due to a blowout.