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This Angels team is not great, don’t get me wrong, but I like their chances today. Reid Detmers is a fantastic pitcher who has looked great as of late despite getting incredibly unlucky. Detmers currently has a 4.00 ERA, but an excellent 2.87 xERA and 2.86 FIP. His 4.00 ERA is not a true indicator of how good of a pitcher he is. He’s one of the biggest positive regression candidates in the game, and if you’ve watched some of his starts, you know just how unlucky he has been. Detmers is striking out 29.3% of batters, which ranks in the 90th percentile, and he has an exceptional .204 xBA. His only real flaw is his fly ball rate, but his strikeout stuff erases much of that concern. Yes, the Diamondbacks are good against left handed pitching, but this offense has been very bad as of late. Arizona ranks just 26th in wRC+ over the last 30 days and is not playing good baseball. While I don’t love the Angels offense, they rank 16th in wRC+ over that same span. I also think they have a great matchup today. Merrill Kelly looks broken right now. He has a 5.46 ERA with a 7.18 xERA, 5.90 FIP, and 5.45 SIERA. None of his estimators suggest positive regression is on the way. In fact, they expect these poor performances to continue. Kelly is putting up a career low Stuff+ grade and a career low Pitching+ grade. I don’t know if he’s injured or what’s happening, but something isn’t right with Kelly. He currently sits in the 2nd percentile in both xBA (.304) and strikeout rate (13.5%). Almost every ball is being put in play against him, which is not ideal when he’s getting barreled more than almost any pitcher in the sport. This is a matchup featuring a pitcher I love and a pitcher I will gladly continue to fade. Both bullpens are pretty comparable, so I don’t mind taking the Angels full game given the starting pitching advantage. Our model also likes the Angels in this spot. Give me the Angels to win on the road.

@cowhitchurch @gneiffer07 @Tannerstruth ⭐️ https://myaction.app/7R4ycCYt13b

THE BAT X is forecasting 2.22 walks allowed for Framber Valdez. Oddsmakers are implying 1.71 walks allowed, so I believe there is value here. If you take the over, you'd be projected to win 68% of the time resulting in a 29% ROI with expected value of $32.30 (based on a $100 wager). This play is good down to at least -160. Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz