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Pre Game Line F5 o4.5 -105

(FD = typo, suppsed to be +112) Trop playing more hitter friendly this year (104 Park Run Factor since Rays returned). Lugo (0 K Last start) best non-FIP estimator 4.43 xFIP. TBR LU 110 wRC+ v RHP. KCR def -18 FRV. KCR pen worst estimators MLB L30 days

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Miller is similar to Bryan Woo (cashed on his under 5.5 yesterday) in that he has pretty extreme home/road splits thanks to T-Mobile Park being the most strikeout-friendly park for pitchers. Simply getting him away from Seattle gives him a noticeable downgrade in my model. He’s also shaping up as a sell-high candidate. Miller has racked up 23 strikeouts over his last three starts, but my expected K model had him closer to just 15.2 over that span. A huge reason for the gap is that hitters continue to chase pitches out of the zone at a career-high 38% rate against him. That’s the primary reason he’s sporting a career-best 30.5% K rate so far this season. Once you adjust for his favorable schedule and that unsustainably high chase rate, my model has him much closer to a 23.5% true strikeout pitcher. I’d expect opponents to become more disciplined, with his chase rate regressing closer to his 28% career average, which would naturally pull his strikeout rate back toward his 22.9% career mark. The Pirates rank around league average in chase rate, making them a decent candidate to force some of that regression. There’s also a sneaky lineup-construction angle here. I’m projecting Miller for a full workload today around 90 pitches before Luis Castillo piggybacks him (or another RP? Not sure what their plan is), which works out to roughly 23 batters faced. That would make Ryan O’Hearn, the No. 5 hitter, his most likely final batter, although there’s obviously some variance around that. The key is that the Pirates’ easiest stretch to strike out is hitters 6-9. Miller is likely to face that group only twice, while the tougher top five should get a third look at him. That’s a subtle but meaningful ding to his strikeout ceiling. My sim has him staying under 5.5 strikeouts at a fair price closer to -150.