Latest MLB Betting Picks

2 unit play of the week. 2 units are 69-41 all time. While -150 may seem steep, our model makes this number -266, which gives us plenty of value here. I’ve loved Nolan McLean ever since he debuted last season. McLean started this season hot but cooled off in May and has been up and down in June and July. However, this is an arm I’m looking to buy low on. He currently has a 3.73 ERA with a 3.41 xERA, 3.43 xFIP, and 3.50 SIERA. He’s a positive regression candidate and has some nasty stuff (108 Stuff+). McLean is striking out 28% of batters and owns a very good .214 xBA. The Red Sox lineup doesn’t scare me, and I think we see McLean pitch well tonight. Sonny Gray has been great this year, but I remain skeptical. His estimators show he’s a major regression candidate considering he has a 3.69 xERA and 3.76 SIERA compared to his current shiny 2.61 ERA. Gray has a below average .242 xBA and is getting hard hit 37.1% of the time. Gray has also been seen very well by this Mets lineup. In a large 87 plate appearance sample size, the Mets are hitting .284 with a .487 xSLG against Gray. They know him very well. Gray has also been almost a run worse on the road this season. I’m ready to sell on Sonny Gray, and I think this is a spot where he gets hit around. I’ll avoid the bullpens, so give me the Mets to win the first 5 innings.

There is a value opportunity on Grayson Rodriguez's pitching outs prop. THE BAT X is projecting 16.38 pitching outs for him with a 75% chance that he records at least 15 pitching outs. If you can get the over at -130 or better, there is great value here. This play is good down to at least -218. Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz

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