Latest NFL Betting Picks

Have the full game spread closer to SEA -5, so pretty much in line with the market. Like getting the Pats at a key number for the 1H here at -120. Seattle winning the 1H by exactly 3 is probably the most likely outcome, so I wouldn’t recommend NE +2.5. Pats went a league-best 14-5-1 ATS in the 1H and typically get off to better starts than expected. Spillane trending toward playing helps and Emmanwori’s late-week ankle injury is a bit of an unknown, but if he’s less than 100% it could throw off Seattle’s game plan early enough to matter for the 1H market. Pats are sneaky at +3.5 for the 1H.

At DK under Super Bowl MVP tab and scroll down Given on @Stuckey2 's 1k Challenge

Smith-Njigba's receptions line of 6.5 is badly mispriced and worth a play, even juiced to -139 (DraftKings). It's probably a full reception too low since he has 8+ catches in 10-of-13 non-blowout games. The alternate line of 8+ catches is worth a play at +130 (Fanatics). But what if Smith-Njigba has an even bigger game? He's racked up 123+ receiving yards seven times this season and has seven games with exactly eight catches and a few others with nine or 10. You could play an alternate yardage line like 120 yards for +210, but is that really worth it? If he really does rack up eight catches for 120+ yards, we should be dreaming about a much bigger target: Super Bowl MVP. I already bet Smith-Njigba for Super Bowl MVP twice — once right before the playoffs started at +2800, then again at +1500 heading into the NFC Championship Game. And I'm ready to triple down. Like most NFL awards, quarterback is the default for Super Bowl MVP. The award has gone to a QB 34 times (58%), including 14 of the last 19 Super Bowls (74%). If the Patriots win, Drake Maye is rightfully a heavy favorite to win MVP. But could Smith-Njigba steal it from Darnold in a Seahawks win? Remember, Smith-Njigba is typically responsible for almost half of Darnold's production. What's more impressive — 260 yards and two scores as a passer, or 8/130 and a TD as a receiver? Take a look at the receivers who won Super Bowl MVP over the last couple decades: 2005 Deion Branch: 11 receptions, 143 yards 2009 Santonio Holmes: 9 receptions, 141 yards, 1 TD 2019 Julian Edelman: 10 receptions, 141 yards 2022 Cooper Kupp: 8 receptions, 92 yards, 2 TDs These aren't guys putting up huge touchdown numbers. These are workhorse receivers seeing the ball all game, catching 8-to-10 passes and moving the chains drive after drive, piling up big yardage along the way. The average line for those four Super Bowl MVPs is 9.5 catches for 129 yards, even though they also combined for under one touchdown a game. Isn't that line an exact bullseye for a typical big Smith-Njigba game? It's also worth mentioning that no running back has won Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis last century, and that these defenses rank top four in fewest touchdowns and fantasy points allowed to RBs. This is a passing game, and no one gets a bigger piece of the passing pie than Smith-Njigba. He is consensus +550 to win Super Bowl MVP, implied 15.4%. We know MVP will go to someone from the winning team, and Seattle moneyline is priced around -225, implied 69.2%. If you do the math, that means Smith-Njigba would need to win MVP in about 22% of all Seahawks wins for that bet to have value. If you go through the Seahawks' schedule this season game-by-game, Smith-Njigba would've won MVP at least three times, maybe four or five. That means he would've been MVP in at least 19% of Seahawks wins this season, and maybe 25 or 31%. Combine that with the matchup advantages and there's still value on Smith-Njigba to win MVP — but we can get even better bang for our buck. At FanDuel, you can bet on him to record 100+ receiving yards and win Super Bowl MVP (a prepared parlay under Super Bowl Game Specials) at +850. We should not be getting an extra three bucks on our +550 MVP ticket for just 100 receiving yards — that's almost Smith-Njigba's receiving line! He's had 90+ yards in 14-of-19 games (74%), and if he goes under that line, the odds of him winning MVP are perilously low. If he did still steal MVP, maybe it's by finding the end zone multiple times — you're welcome to nibble JSN to score 2+ TDs and win MVP at +2500 (FanDuel) to cover yourself, just in case. Either way, it's time to invest in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Bet JSN to catch at least seven or eight passes on Sunday night, and bet him to top 100 yards and win Super Bowl MVP at +850.