NCAAB Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+1.5 -1.5 | -0.7 +0.7 | +2 -2 | B F | +5.3% -10.3% | +2.5-110 -2-110 | 38%62% | 38% 62% | |
12:00 AM E. Washington EWU 779 Idaho IDHO 780 | +1.5 -1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3-112 -2.5-110 | 88%12% | ||||
12:00 AM N. Iowa UNI 771 S. Illinois SIU 772 | -3.5 +3.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5-115 +5-109 | |||||
12:00 AM Austin Peay PEAY Lipscomb LIP | +14.5 -14.5 | +15.5 -15.5 | +15-108 -15.5-105 | 63%37% | ||||
12:00 AM CS Fullerton CSF 783 LBSU LBSU 784 | +3.5 -3.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-105 -5.5-108 | 63%37% | ||||
12:00 AM N. Mexico St NMSU 781 Liberty LIB 782 | +8.5 -8.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-102 -6.5-110 | 72%28% | ||||
12:00 AM Rider RID 775 Marist MRST 776 | +8 -8 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-110 -8.5-109 | 48%52% | ||||
12:00 AM Presbyterian PRE High Point HP | +13 -13 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5-105 -14.5-108 | 64%36% | ||||
12:00 AM W. Kentucky WKU 777 Middle Tenn MTU 778 | +4.5 -4.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-102 -5.5-108 | 97%3% | ||||
12:00 AM Bellarmine BELL E. Kentucky EKY | +13.5 -13.5 | +15 -15 | +14.5-105 -15.5-104 | 70%30% | ||||
+3.5 -3.5 | +4 -4 | +4.5-105 -3.5-110 | 68%32% | |||||
12:00 AM Cal Baptist CBU 785 Ab Christian AC 786 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1-112 +2-110 | 38%62% | ||||
1:00 AM Southern Utah SUU 797 Seattle SEA 798 | +7.5 -7.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-109 -9.5-105 | 63%37% | ||||
-10.5 +10.5 | -9 +9 | -9-108 +9.5-115 | 23%77% | |||||
1:00 AM UCSD UCSD 805 UC Riverside UCRV 806 | -10 +10 | -9.5 +9.5 | -9.5-108 +9.5-109 | 41%59% | ||||
1:00 AM Montana MONT 801 Idaho State IDST 802 | -1 +1 | +1.5 -1.5 | +2-110 -1.5-114 | 72%28% | ||||
+16 -16 | +15.5 -15.5 | +15.5-105 -16.5-105 | 64%36% | |||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +4 -4 | +4.5-113 -3.5-110 | 47%53% | |||||
1:00 AM Denver DEN 795 St. Thomas UST 796 | +17 -17 | +15.5 -15.5 | +15.5-105 -15.5-110 | 56%44% | ||||
+14.5 -14.5 | +15.5 -15.5 | +15-108 -15.5-105 | 70%30% | |||||
1:00 AM Duke DUKE 787 Boston Col BC 788 | -21.5 +21.5 | -23 +23 | -23.5-105 +22.5-105 | |||||
+10 -10 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-110 -10.5-102 | 68%32% | |||||
1:30 AM LSU LSU 807 Texas A&M TXAM 808 | +9.5 -9.5 | +11.5 -11.5 | +11.5-110 -11.5-105 | 44%56% | ||||
2:00 AM Santa Clara SCU 809 Gonzaga GONZ 810 | +13.5 -13.5 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5-102 -15-108 | 67%33% | ||||
2:00 AM BYU BYU 815 Utah UTAH 816 | +1.5 -1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1-105 +1.5-115 | 9%91% | ||||
+10.5 -10.5 | +11 -11 | +10.5-102 -11.5-103 | 40%60% | |||||
-1 +1 | -1.5 +1.5 | +1-115 +1.5-120 | 6%94% | |||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +4 -4 | +4.5-115 -3.5-107 | 50%50% | |||||
-13.5 +13.5 | -13.5 +13.5 | -14-105 +13.5-105 | 87%13% | |||||
3:00 AM Cal Poly CP 821 UC Irvine UCI 822 | +14.5 -14.5 | +15.5 -15.5 | +15.5-110 -15.5-105 | 63%37% | ||||
5:00 AM CS Bakersfield CSB 823 Hawaii HAW 824 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7 -7 | +7.5-115 -6.5-106 | |||||
2ND 1:37 SE Louisiana SELA NW State NWST | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1 | +1.5-115 -1-110 | |||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +2 -3.5 | +2.5-118 -1.5-110 | 58%42% | |||||
-6.5 +6.5 | -6.5 -1.5 | -6.5-108 +7-112 | 78%22% | |||||
+9.5 -9.5 | +8.5 -7.5 | +9.5-110 -8.5-110 | ||||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-112 -1.5-115 | ||||||
2ND 6:36 Chattanooga CHAT 743 Furman FUR 744 | +4.5 -4.5 | +7.5 -4.5 | +4.5-105 -4-110 | 55%45% | ||||
+7.5 -7.5 | +6.5 -6 | +6.5-102 -6-112 | 41%59% | |||||
2ND 7:55 Lamar LAM McNeese St MCNS | +16.5 -16.5 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5-109 -15.5-105 | 69%31% | ||||
+8.5 -8.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-112 -8.5-110 | 69%31% | |||||
1ST 0:17 Alabama St ALST Alabama A&M AAMU | -4.5 +4.5 | +5.5 +4.5 | -3.5-110 +4.5-108 | |||||
2ND 5:21 LA Tech LT 751 Kennesaw St KENN 752 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2 +2 | -2-105 +2.5-112 | |||||
+15.5 -15.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +16-105 -16.5-110 | 71%29% | |||||
2ND 19:08 Jackson St JKST Prairie View PV | -3 +3 | -1.5 +6.5 | -1-110 +2.5-118 | 14%86% | ||||
2ND 15:28 MS Valley St MVSU B-Cookman COOK | +24 -24 | +24 -30.5 | +24.5-108 -23.5-105 | 52%48% | ||||
1ST 4:00 Texas A&M-CC AMCC Incarnate Word IW | -2.5 +2.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -2-110 +2.5-109 | 27%73% | ||||
1ST 2:10 San Jose St SJSU 761 Nevada NEV 762 | +13 -13 | +7.5 -13 | +12.5-102 -12.5-110 | 65%35% | ||||
1ST 13:42 AR-Pine Bluff ARPB Florida A&M FAMU | +5.5 -5.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +7-110 -6.5-110 | 86%14% | ||||
+5.5 -5.5 | +11 -6 | +6-110 -5.5-110 | 78%22% | |||||
1ST 11:49 Alcorn State ALCN Texas Southern TXSO | +7.5 -7.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +9.5-112 -8.5-110 | 56%44% | ||||
1ST 4:04 Drake DRKE 755 Indiana St INST 756 | -5.5 +5.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5-102 +7-108 | |||||
1ST 3:28 Grambling St GRAM Southern U SOU | +9 -9 | +10 -10 | +10-110 -8.5-120 | 49%51% | ||||
1ST 0:53 Mercer MER 765 Wofford WOF 766 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5 -7 | +7.5-108 -7-105 | 67%33% | ||||
1ST 1:58 Arkansas ARK 767 Missouri MIZZ 768 | +5.5 -5.5 | +14.5 -5.5 | +5.5-107 -5-110 | 56%44% | ||||
+17 -17 | +17 -14.5 | +16.5-105 -17-110 | 49%51% | |||||
+6.5 -6.5 | +6 -6 | +6.5-115 -5.5-114 | 37%63% | |||||
1ST 4:02 California CAL 769 NC State NCST 770 | +6.5 -6.5 | +1.5 -6 | +6.5-114 -5.5-114 | 73%27% | ||||
Final Boston U BU Army ARMY | +1.5 -1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-110 -1.5-109 | 38%62% | ||||
+6.5 -6.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-108 -7.5-110 | 43%57% | |||||
Final - OT Clemson CLEM 609 Pittsburgh PITT 610 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-105 -3.5-105 | 67%33% | ||||
-11.5 +11.5 | -13.5 +13.5 | -13-110 +14-109 | 84%16% | |||||
+13.5 -13.5 | +15 -15 | +14.5-105 -15.5-104 | 55%45% | |||||
+8.5 -8.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +10-110 -9.5-108 | 43%57% | |||||
Final - 2OT G Washington GW 613 George Mason GMU 614 | +9.5 -9.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +9-114 -8.5-102 | 59%41% | ||||
-8.5 +8.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | -5+100 +5.5-102 | 51%49% | |||||
Final Lakers MHU Wagner WAG | N/A -5-110 | |||||||
Final Maine ME UMBC UMBC | +1.5 -1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-110 -2-112 | |||||
-1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1-106 +1.5-108 | 38%62% | |||||
-1.5 +1.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1.5-110 +1.5-104 | ||||||
+8.5 -8.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +8.5-108 -8.5-105 | 52%48% | |||||
+15.5 -15.5 | +15 -15 | +15.5-110 -14.5-105 | 37%63% | |||||
+1.5 -1.5 | -1 +1 | +1-115 +2-110 | ||||||
-8.5 +8.5 | -9 +9 | -9-110 +9.5-112 | 42%58% | |||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +5-110 -4.5-110 | 60%40% | |||||
-7.5 +7.5 | -8 +8 | -7-114 +8-110 | 55%45% | |||||
+8.5 -8.5 | +10 -10 | +10.5-110 -9.5-115 | 54%46% | |||||
Final UTEP UTEP 635 FIU FIU 636 | -3 +3 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5-118 +2.5-110 | 50%50% | ||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +2-110 -1.5-110 | ||||||
+3.5 -3.5 | +4 -4 | +4.5-110 -4-110 | 51%49% | |||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +3.5-120 -1.5-115 | ||||||
+1 -1 | +1 -1 | +1-110 -1-102 | ||||||
-2.5 +2.5 | -2 +2 | -1.5-113 +2-110 | 36%64% | |||||
-2 +2 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-109 +2.5-110 | ||||||
-1 +1 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-105 -2.5-110 | ||||||
+1 -1 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5-110 +2.5-112 | 1%99% | |||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-108 -2.5-109 | 52%48% | |||||
-4.5 +4.5 | -4 +4 | -3.5-110 +4-110 | 65%35% | |||||
+8.5 -8.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +10-110 -7.5-110 | 43%57% | |||||
+3.5 -3.5 | +2 -2 | +2.5-110 -2-115 | ||||||
+13.5 -13.5 | +13 -13 | +13-105 -13-107 | 62%38% | |||||
+1.5 -1.5 | +2 -2 | +2.5-115 -1.5-112 | ||||||
Final Queens QUC FGCU FGCU | +5 -5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-105 -4.5-105 | 72%28% | ||||
+1.5 -1.5 | -1 +1 | -1-107 +1.5-118 | ||||||
+3.5 -3.5 | +3 -3 | +3.5-114 -2.5-105 | 99%1% | |||||
+5.5 -5.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-110 -4.5-115 | ||||||
N/A +3-108 | ||||||||
-7.5 +7.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5-110 +7.5-102 | ||||||
+9.5 -9.5 | +10 -10 | +10.5-110 -9.5-114 | 42%58% | |||||
+2 -2 | +1 -1 | +1.5-115 -1-110 | 99%1% | |||||
-9 +9 | -9 +9 | -8.5-114 +9.5-110 | 31%69% | |||||
+5.5 -5.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5+100 -6-110 | 36%64% | |||||
-3.5 +3.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-115 +3.5-112 | 40%60% | |||||
-5.5 +5.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | -5.5-110 +6-109 | 55%45% | |||||
-5.5 +5.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -5.5-109 +6.5-110 | 66%34% | |||||
-6.5 +6.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7-110 +8-110 | 44%56% | |||||
+10.5 -10.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +11.5+100 -12.5-104 | 45%55% | |||||
-5.5 +5.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -5.5-115 +6.5-110 | 47%53% | |||||
-4.5 +4.5 | -4 +4 | -4-105 +4-110 | ||||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-108 -3.5-106 | 38%62% | |||||
-6.5 +6.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-105 +6.5-105 | ||||||
-2.5 +2.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-108 -1.5+100 | 43%57% | |||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-110 -5-110 | 40%60% | |||||
+6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-110 -6.5-108 | 59%41% | |||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-110 -2-112 | 42%58% | |||||
+2 -2 | +3 -3 | +3.5-114 -3-106 | ||||||
+7.5 -7.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-109 -9-110 | 56%44% | |||||
+12.5 -12.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5-108 -13-105 | 64%36% | |||||
-2.5 +2.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -1-110 +1.5-110 | ||||||
+3 -3 | +6.5 -6.5 | +7.5-105 -6.5-105 | ||||||
-7.5 +7.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | -5.5-110 +6-112 | 67%33% | |||||
+15.5 -15.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +15.5-102 -16.5-105 | 74%26% | |||||
+5.5 -5.5 | +6 -6 | +6.5-115 -5.5-112 | 40%60% | |||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-109 -2.5-102 | 50%50% | |||||
-3.5 +3.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-104 +3.5-108 | 39%61% | |||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +4 -4 | +3.5-104 -3.5-110 | 31%69% | |||||
-6.5 +6.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | -5-107 +5.5-112 | 34%66% | |||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +3 -3 | +3.5-105 -2.5-110 | 57%43% | |||||
-1.5 +1.5 | +1 -1 | +1-110 +1.5-122 | ||||||
+10.5 -10.5 | +11 -11 | +11.5-110 -10.5-110 | ||||||
-2.5 +2.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3-113 +3.5-110 | ||||||
-3.5 +3.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -3.5-115 +4.5-110 | ||||||
+7.5 -7.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +8.5-115 -7.5-110 | 30%70% | |||||
+13.5 -13.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5-105 -13.5-110 | 62%38% | |||||
-8.5 +8.5 | -8.5 +8.5 | -8-105 +8.5-114 | 38%62% | |||||
Final - OT Loyola (IL) L-IL 715 Dayton DAY 716 | +9.5 -9.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-110 -9.5-112 | 44%56% | ||||
Final Wolves UWG Stetson STET | N/A -1.5+102 | |||||||
-1.5 +1.5 | -1 +1 | PK-110 +1.5-114 | ||||||
-1.5 +1.5 | -2 +2 | -1.5-110 +1.5-102 | ||||||
-3.5 +3.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5-110 +4.5+100 | ||||||
+3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -3.5-108 | ||||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-115 -4-113 | 58%42% | |||||
Final Navy NAVY Bucknell BUCK | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +4.5-112 -4-110 | 45%55% | ||||
+7 -7 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-110 -7-108 | 43%57% | |||||
+8.5 -8.5 | +8 -8 | +8.5-109 -8-110 | 41%59% | |||||
+4 -4 | +4 -4 | +4-110 -3.5-110 | 34%66% | |||||
+4.5 -4.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-105 -4.5-115 | 36%64% | |||||
-2.5 +2.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-110 +4.5-118 |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAB bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAB projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAB Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAB projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college basketball handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAB projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in college basketball betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building NCAAB projections to be aware of news and injuries.
It's not unreasonable to see a line move 6-7 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out ahead of a game. Using advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense and defense, player values, news, predicting home-court advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAB Projections
Our college basketball experts will provide consensus projections for every NBA game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college basketball: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Gonzaga Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the UCLA Bruins. In that situation, a spread bet on Gonzaga would cash if they won by a 7 points or more. A bet on UCLA at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
When it comes to totals or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Baylor Bears vs. Arizona Wildcats game has a total of 175 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 174 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 175 or more. An exact total of 175 would be a push and the bet would be voided.
In moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright, everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NBA projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Ohio State Buckeyes are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Michigan Wolverines, who are -290. If you bet $10 on the Buckeyes and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on the Wolverines, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.