Latest NCAAF Betting Picks

We’ve seen these Miami slow starts. Last four games, dating back to the regular season finale against Pitt, 6 first quarter points in total. Shannon Dawson wants to establish the run, you can see Mario fist-pumping on the sideline as they push the pile from a three yard run into an eight yard run. It’s offensive line coach porn, that’s how I’d describe their scripted stuff. And when they flip on the Oregon tape, they desparetely want to avoid throwing the game away like Dante Moore did with an opening play pick six that put them behind the Eight Ball. I feel confident in a conservative, set the tone on the ground opening script, which makes early explosives less likely. Speaking of explosives, I think a truly elite offense could take advantage of IU’s defense in the big play department, but that’s not what we have here with Miami. They never break rushing explosives, 133rd in Rush EPA, they had 4 runs of 30+ all season long. Now they had more success creating big plays through the air, but Indiana is buttoned up there, 4th in coverage, 2nd in tackling, and they are 1st in HAVOC. The scary part of this total is obviously Indiana. 35 against Alabama, 56 against Oregon. But this is the same team that was held to 13 against Ohio State and 20 by Iowa, a pair of top 10 defenses. That’s what Miami is, an elite, make you earn every yard kind of defense. @_Collin1 brought up a great point before the Ole Miss game about the field, about pass rushers not getting the best footing, and yes Miami only got home once. But they still generated 17 pressures, a season-high on Chambliss, forced more TWPs than BTTs. And similar pressure is what caused Mendoza to go from a Heisman winning game changer to a game manager against Iowa and Ohio State. Iowa heated him up 12 times, 2 sacks. Ohio State 13 pressures, 3 sacks. I have a ton of faith in this Miami defensive line to continue to be game plan wreckers. Last piece, these defensive coaching staffs have shown up huge in the second half this season. Indiana 2nd Half scoring defense, 1st, 5.2 ppg Miami (FL) in the third quarter 10th, 2.9 ppg Remember that Hetherman worked for Cignetti at James Madison where he won the AFCA’s Assistant Coach of the Year. He knows how Cig preps and adapts. So I think this game is brutal in the trenches, both QBs are heated up more than they have been in recent games, and it’s a chess match in the second half with points coming at a premium.

Small fun hedge play against heavy Indiana backed card. If Miami is going to win (or play it close), Toney is going to be a catalyst. Dawson gets Toney involved. He has 11 rush attempts in last four games, a few in the red zone. Home town kid playing for a national championship with his home town university in his home town stadium. Longshot for a reason, but a roulette chip to hedge for an all-time Hurricanes upset.