Sam Houston vs. W. Kentucky Odds & Betting Predictions - August 23, 2025

full game and tt

POTD. I don’t think I could possibly be lower on a team than Sam Houston State. They’re in for a brutal season, and the reasons are piling up. Most importantly, Sam Houston ranks 135th out of 136 FBS teams in returning defensive production. They don’t have a single defensive starter back from last year. This defense is going to be very very bad and is projected as a bottom 10 unit against both the pass and the run. On top of that, their head coach left for Temple, leaving the program in disarray. They rehired Phil Longo, a recognizable name, but one I don’t think fits here at all. His air raid system can thrive with the right personnel, but Sam Houston’s quarterback, Hunter Watson, is a dual threat, not the pure pocket passer Longo prefers. To make matters worse, Watson lost his top three wideouts from last year’s bowl team, meaning he has to learn a brand new system while building chemistry with new receivers. The Longo hire is baffling to me. He tried the same offense at Wisconsin and failed miserably because it was a poor fit, and I see a repeat here. Watson hasn’t shown he can consistently push the ball vertically, which makes this scheme feel doomed from the start. Yes, Sam Houston finished 10-3 last season, but don’t be fooled by that record. They ranked as the luckiest team in all of college football with a 2.9 luck rating. Every bounce and every last second play seemed to go their way. This roster is now much worse. I honestly don’t see many paths to victory for the Bearkats. Western Kentucky, on the other hand, looks very promising thanks to transfer quarterback Maverick McIvor, a name everyone should know heading into the season. Not only is the name elite, but the talent matches. Last year at Abilene Christian, McIvor threw for 3,847 yards and 30 touchdowns, including a ridiculous 500 yard performance against Texas Tech in a narrow 52-51 overtime loss. This kid is a baller who’s proven he can shine on the big stage. Even better, he transferred alongside his offensive coordinator from Abilene Christian, so the system is already second nature. With weapons like K.D. Hutchinson and Matthew Henry, this Hilltoppers offense should absolutely torch Sam Houston’s defense, especially over the middle. These two teams faced last year, with Western Kentucky winning 31-14 as a 1 point underdog. Now, they face a depleted version of that Bearkats team. WKU went 5-1 at home last season with an average margin of victory of 16.4 points. I expect them to start the season with a dominant win. Take Western Kentucky to cover.

Expect 35+ attempts out of Mav, a ladder strategy is worth a look as well 4 TDs (+370), 5 TDs (+920) at FD

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62 and 65 are the next key numbers in totals. Expecting a plethora of possessions here. Longo/SHSU heavy tempo with 3nOuts. WKU should be firing from the first snap w QB Maverick McIvor and his Abilene OC Rick Bowie. These two defensive front 7’s project as the worst in Conference USA Keep eyes on wind, excessive heat