Michael Calabrese

Jacob Clark, welcome back! That’s the injury buzz at least, for what it’s worth if it is Duece Bailey, kid looked good in relief against MIddle Tennessee. Now back to Clark, He took his lumps right alongside this Mo State offense in paycheck games with USC and SMU. But he threw for 359 and 3 scores against Marshall, helped them drop 42 on UT Martin and then he got hurt. He’s drawing the New Mexico State defense, and the Aggies are pitiful. La Tech 49 points, New Mexico 38 points, Liberty 30 points. Everyone is moving the football, and everyone can throw on them. Four of their five starting DBs are 6-feet or shorter and MO State have some tall, physical receivers like Tristian Gardner and James BlackStrain. This was a very high scoring, high flying offense last year in the FCS with Clark healthy. His return unlocks the potential of fireworks here. Last piece, Aggie Memorial Stadium, outside of the the Rio Grande Rivalry, the home field advantage is non-existent. So don’t sweat the roadie here.

Two factors pushed me to the points: Is this the same Mateer pre injury? He’s not using his legs nearly as much and he’s checking it down a ton. And the second piece, how much of OU’s defense profile is based on the teams/QBs they’ve faced? Michigan? Auburn? Texas? Those are their best opponents, and all three have failed to live up to preseason hype. Gimme the points with Chambliss and the Lane 🚂

JJ Kohl the 6’7” 245 pound gunslinger has opened up this offense. 78 points in their past two games with him as their QB1. Kohl has been surging, ODU’s defense has been imploding. They’ve allowed, ready for this, 111 points in the past two games. The reasons are simple, they can’t tackle and they can’t rush the passer. So if you have a quality QB, you can score 50 points against them. 17 missed tackles against Marshall, 16 against James Madison. When ODU has the ball, Colton Joseph is still an elite playmaker. 22nd in QBR, five games with 50 or more yards rushing, and when he has time to read a defense, he knows where to go with the ball. When he’s kept clean in the pocket, he pushes the ball down field and gashes teams. 13.6 aDOT in a clean pocket, has translated to 15 passing TDs, 66% completion percentage, and 14 big time throws. Only one QB in the country, Walker Eget, has more big time throws overall than Joseph. App State is miles away from the stingy defenses they used to field in The Belt. 111th in coverage, a matching 111th in tackling, and they’ve already given up 23 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season, which is good for 93rd. I trust in both of these QBs to put up monster lines, in perfect fall weather at noon on Saturday.

It’s time to buy the Bulls after an 0-3 start in MAC play agaisnt the spread. They haven’t come close to cover as heavy favorites yet. Won by 3 over Kent as 24 point favorites. Won by 1 over EMU as 10 point favorites. And then last week they come from behind and win by 7 over UMass, laying 16. The common factor in all three loss ATS, Buffalo lost the turnover battle. But the UMass performance, not only included a losing turnover battle, they also got stopped on fourth down at the Minutemen’s 35 and gave up a flukey 90 yard rushing touchdown and an insane 77 yard reception that included a side arm scrambling throw and then three missed tackles. This is from a top 20 team in terms of tackling. They outgained UMass 169 yards and should have lost the game outright if we’re being honest. Akron has lost three MAC games by 42, 13, 14. They cannot stop the run at all, letting opposing lines get to the second level with ease (109th in line yards). Near 100th in quality drives and big plays allowed. I foresee the Buffalo running game getting it going again. Ta’Quan Roberson hasn’t run much since his lower leg injury early in the year. But what���s interesting is he’s no bailing as much from the pocket and as a result he’s taken flight as a passer. 675 yards, 5 passing TDs in his last two games. Buffalo hammered Akron on the road last year, opening up a 38-7 lead in the third quarter before coasting to a 41-30 win. Recent close wins, an 11 pont win that wasn’t nearly as close last year, a lot of this is surpressing this number and it’s time to take advantage with Buffalo at home.

Four of the Aggies’ last five games, they’ve hit 30 points. They have balance with Barnes and Davis on the ground, big play upside when Barnes pushes the ball down field. They’re all the way up to 11th in Big Play rate, and Barnes has smoothed over the fact that their offensive line isn’t very good. Speaking of which, New Mexico is boom or bust on defense. They get home to the quarterback or give up home run plays. They are 49th in sacks per game but 132nd in HAVOC. That’s their one trump card, get teams behind the sticks. But Barnes has overcome sacks and pressure really all season long. During this high scoring runs, 38 ppg across their last five, he’s taken 12 sacks. For some offenses that’s too much to overcome, not Utah State. They’ll keep this scoring train running.

🎶 Diego, Diego 🎶

Navy will move the football, they’ll hit 7 yards per carry on the ground. But something, at some point has to give with their luck in close games and when it comes to turnovers. 8 pt win over Rice 3 pt win over Air Force 1 pt win over Temple Those teams are collectively 8-11 SU and all of them had BAD run defenses. Air Force was 110th and Temple 108th against the run, So FAU checking in a 111th isn’t a deal breaker. Turnover luck, Navy has lost all of five this season in six games. But here’s the thing, they’ve fumbled it 9 times! And only lost 2. That’s insanely lucky to be landing on 78% of your fumbles FAU…dead last in turnover margin this season. The TO regression gods are you listening, give me a bounce. Because if FAU does get a lucky bounce, they have the passing attack to carve up Navy. They throw, throw and throw some more, 4th in passing yards per game, no one throw more per game than the Owls. The Middies pass defense 117th in coverage, 114th in Pass D success rate, 126th in passes defended. Look for some comps, Evan Simon 25/36, 345, TD, only sacked once. Jalen Kitna 22/32, 304, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, only sacked once. Veltkamp can stand in the pocket and carve these guys up. Last thing here, situational angle. Who is on deck? North Texas, Notre Dame, USF, Memphis If they go 3-1 there, and win the American Title Game, they’re in the playoff. How is that not on their mind as an undefeated team. THIS IS THE LOOKAHEAD SPOT.

We warned everyone that Miami would turn it around. They should have upset UNLV, but they had injuries and bad luck in a 41-38 loss. Since then four straight wins, all four by double digits. Defenses stuffed NIU and Akron into a locker. And the offense came alive against EMU, dropping 44 points. They’re showing off their depth too. They lose Kenny Tracy for the season, Jordan Brunson, a career backup, rolls in with 267 yards in the past three games. The offensive line is rolling, one of the best units in the MAC, 36th in line yards. And DeQuan Finn is now pitching in that rushing element every game. 213 and 2 rushing scores in MAC play. I still have my doubts about this Western Michigan offense mainly because of the schedule. Rhode Island, UMass, Ball State. That’s tailor made to throw some noise into their season-long stats. But even with that cupcake trio now behind them, 111th in Rush EPA, 118th in Passing Success Rate. 127th in Big Play rate on offense. They haven’t been in a real hole since the played Illinois and Michigan State. And I think it’s going to be a bit of a shock to them, and finally we’re going to see them for what they are, a below average MAC offense going against the best coach in the MAC and a QB with the highest upside in the conference.