Michael Calabrese

Last year King faced four ranked opponents, he averaged 81 yards per game on the ground, exceeding this number in all four games. The offense runs through him in big games. The system also protects him from taking sacks, so many RPOs, the quick game is a point of emphasis. That’s why he only took one sack against those four ranked opponents. He’s coming off a lower body injury, which has supressed this number a bit. But he’s already logged two practices this week and should be good to go against Clemson. Clemson and DC Tom Allen haven’t faced a QB with any running upside yet this season, Garrett Nussmeier and Goose Crowder are absolute statues.

I faded Akron, how about we unload on another piss poor MAC team? Bill Connelly’s massive CFB ranking from Oregon at #1 to Oberlin at #766, it places Kent State 190th. That means multiple D2 teams like Ferris State, Harding, Grand Valley State are above them. Hell, North Central out of Illinois, a D3 is only 16 spots behind the Golden Flashes. Offense won’t be able to run against Buffalo, like they’d be lucky to get 40 yards on the ground. Which shifts all the pressure over to their two-QB system of Dru DeShields and CJ Montes. It’s been all boom or bust for the Flashes through the air, and what I like is that Pete Lembo and his DC Joe Bowen talked a ton in the offseason about limited aerial explosives. They were below average in that regard last year, and they looked significantly improved through two games. Because if you walk those safeties back, play 2 high safeties all game, Kent doesn’t have the run game or efficiency to go on 10 play scoring drives. Offensively, Buffalo got to fully unleash Roberson as a dual threat last week, and I expect more that. They beat Kent 43-7 last year at home, and the running game did the dirty work. That’lll be the same formula here, only difference is that Roberson is even better as a runner than Ogbonna was last time. I’ll say Buffalo 42-10 in a snoozer on the road.

This one is simple. OU is back on defense, they have a dynamic passing attack to overwhelm Temple. Third in defensive success rate, OU top 20 in finishing drives. That’s the recipe to cover a big number. Speaking of the number, Action Network’s internal projections puts this at OU-36!! My number is 30.5. So this is the LETDOWN SPOT discount. And finally let’s look at Venables against tin cans. Temple last year 51-3, Maine 59-14 (2-0) 2023, Ark State 73-0, Tulsa 66-17 (2-0) 2022, UTEP 45-13, Kent 33-3 (1-1) That’s 5-1 ATS against non-conf paycheck teams when laying 24 or more points. He won those games by 46 ppg.

The Bluehens found their QB. Nick Minicucci just threw for 312 yards and a score at Colorado. And if weren’t for a missed chip shot field goal, they would have covered against the Buffs instead of pushing. That was a promising sign. Defensively, through two games, they are what we hoped for. This is a solid CUSA defense already, they returned the 4th most production year over year on defense and that continuity has them playing fundamentally sound football. 23rd in HAVOC alrady, top 70 in coverage. Just an above average CUSA unit. But I’m also fading UConn coming off a big letdown. Their win expectancy was 96.7% with 3:19 remaining against Syracuse. They then allow Cuse to run down the field and take the lead in the final minute. They rebound with 41 yard kick at the buzzer to force OT. Then they choke with two shots at the endzone from the 4 yard line. Boom gutwrenching loss.

The Stetson Bennett-Todd Monken days seem like a distant memory at this point. During Georgia’s back-to-back national title run, it had speed to burn on the perimeter, a deep running back room and special weapons like Brock Bowers to build a game plan around. Last year, the receiving corps struggled with drops, and Carson Beck continually forced the football in key situations. With Beck off to Miami, there's a ton of pressure on play-caller Mike Bobo and starting quarterback Gunner Stockton to get things right. Through two games, the offense looks fine, but that’s not that’s going to cut it once this schedule ramps up. Stockton’s meager average depth of target of 5.1 yards (62nd) is troubling because they won’t be able to dink and dunk their way downfield in SEC play. No Power Four quarterback with two starts under their belt in 2025 has a lower aDOT. He has yet to make a Big-Time Throw, according to PFF, and much of that can be laid at Bobo’s feet.

This USF story has been awesome, I was a part of it in the opener with that ML call over Boise. But it’s time to get off the ride. To me that loss for UF was more about Billy Napier and the Gators than USF playing out of their mind. Now they catch the Canes off a de facto bye week, giving Corey Hetherman more time to plan for the Veer n Shoot. It isn’t apple to apples at all, but USC’s spread offense ran into a wall against Hetherman’s Minnesota defense last season. Gophers upset USC, completely put Miller Moss in a box. The key here is stopping the QB run. Brown is a scramble threat, but also a key goal to go and 3rd down runner. Hetherman will make him consistently win from the pocket and that’s a losing recipe. Plus Miami may be healthier on offense, expecting the return of JoJo Trader.

Shula Bowl is an Owl Showcase. FAU has won 7 straight in this series. Dominating FIU by an average margin of 30 points per game. And in this game, only 1 side has shown any signs of life offensively. Veltkamp bounced back from his nightmarish start against Maryland. 5 TDs last week through the air against FAMU. Passing game will shine here and questions remain if FIU can counter. Keyone Jenkins Named CUSA Preseason Offensive Player of the Year. But he hasn’t thrown a TD yet, and the Willie Simmons offense has been dink and dunk. That’s going to put the Panthers in a lot of third down situations, and FAU’s 3rd Down defense has been stout this season allowing just 30% conversions. Pitbull Stadium can get raucous on their theme nights, but we avoid Miami Vice night and Biscayne Blue, all they’re doing is Shula Bowl Rally Towels.

Eight multi-TD games in his young career already. Play this at any number north of 10:1.

Shakespeare coined the phrase “strange bedfellows” and that’s exactly what we have here in Week 3. I, Michael Calabrese, of my own free will am entering a gambling pact with Trent Farris Dilfer. This is 2/3 a play on a sometimes dynamic UAB offense, and 1/3 a fade of Akron that has bottomed out. The Zips haven’t scored yet in 2025, outscored 78-0 in back-to-back shutouts at the hands of Wyoming and Nebraska. There is no path to bowl eligibility for the Zips, Ben Finley can’t elevate this unit on his own, he’s regressing behind a patchwork offensive line and they’ve had no success replacing their top three wide receivers. UAB meanwhile will be healthier than they’ve been all season long on defense. And they have a laser focus for this not only being a win but a spring board. Outside of UAB’s assistant Sports Information Director, I’ve watched more Coffee With Coach epsiodes than anyone. And I Dilfer is an open book, when its falling apart in the locker room, he shares that. When they have optimism, he shares it. The message from this week, came straight from Dilfer’s mouth. “It’s a pretty desperate building” They are hungry to build on an awesome first half performance against Navy where they scored TDs on all three of their drives. Then two lightning delays messed with their rhythm and timing and they crashed out. Akron is lost defensively, and you see the gulf between these two teams in stats like EPA per play. UAB offense 14th, Akron Defense 104th. They’ll be able to open up a lead and then Akron’s dysfunctional passing attack is all that stands between us cashing this ticket. Dead last in success rate at the FBS level through the air. One nugget from Evan Abrams, our Director of Research, teams coming off back-to-back shut out losses are 3-22 SU, 7-16-2 ATS in the past 20 years.

This is a get right game for Sam Leavitt and the Sun Devils who laid an egg in Stark Vegas. Bobcats are 115th in explosivness allowed, and are struggling to get their run fits down. That’ll be a big problem against ASU’s three-headed monster in the backfield. Defensively, if Miss State can throw 3 TDs against you, GJ Kinne’s system is going to do damage. This unit scored 28 points on Arizona State in 3 quarters last fall. They have the same balance WIth Brad Jackson as their dual threat QB.