NFL Props Projections

How to Use the NFL Prop Projections Page

Our NFL prop projections are powered by Sean Koerner, the most accurate fantasy football ranker in the industry in 2023 (and 2015-2017, for that matter).

All our projections vs. the market are available to Action Network PRO subscribers. Here's how it works.

You'll see five total columns:

• Player: Player name and the prop
• Pick: Whether our projections like the over or under
• PRO: What our actual projection is for that stat (i.e. Derek Carr 4 total rushing yards)
• Odds: The best available price across sportsbooks we track
• Edge: The advantage we believe our projections have over the listed price at that sportsbook. 

How the Edge Works

You may notice different-sized edges depending on the stat and sport. That's because with numerally-smaller statistics, 1.0 will mean more. Think about the different between 5 and 6 receptions in an NFL game vs. 265 and 266 passing yards.

What Else Can You Do on This Page?

• Filter by game, prop type, player and more
• Switch sport to find prop projections for different sports
• View more props for each specific player

The last one is particularly impactful because if our projections like a particular prop, it's likely they something else, depending on the player. Here, we like Carr under both his completions and pass attempt props (which are obviously quite correlated).

NFL Player Props Overview

Come check out our NFL Player Props hub, where you can get our projections against the best prices at leading the best sportsbooks in the U.S.

Before you start wagering on NFL Player Props, make sure you always shop for the best price! Specific markets like anytime touchdown scorer, most receptions, or an over/under in rushing yards may have the best price on three separate sportsbooks. Make sure to download and use our FanDuel Promo Code, bet365 Bonus Code, DraftKings Promo Code, Fanatics Sportsbook Promo, and ESPN BET Promo Code, among other legal online sportsbooks to take advantage!

NFL Player Props contain some of the fall's most popular sports betting markets. At the Action Network, you'll find popular player props, our biggest edges against those props, and some of our expert's favorite picks for that week.

Below are some of the NFL Player Props you can bet on weekly and expect us to handicap and bet:

Passing Yards

Sportsbooks will offer a passing yardage total for each starting quarterback in the game. These are adjusted based on the player's ability, the matchup, and the potential game script. Let's review an example of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

• Patrick Mahomes: 254.5 (over -112, under -108)

If you bet Mahomes over 254.5, he would need at least 255 passing yards for you to win your wager. You would need to risk $1.12 for every dollar you want to win. This prop works similarly to rushing and receiving yard props.

Anytime Touchdown

Some sportsbooks may give you two options (also known as a two-way market) on whether a player will score a touchdown or not. Users can bet either "Yes,” as in you're betting on them to score a touchdown, or "No.”

Let's use an example from FanDuel for the Cardinals vs. Rams game:

• Puka Nacua to Score Anytime: +150 ($10 risk wins $15)

Anytime touchdowns cover rushing, receiving, or special teams touchdowns! They do not cover passing touchdowns as these are a completely separate market. At a sportsbook like ESPN BET, they offer odds on the "Yes" and "No" for anytime touchdown scorers.

Want More?

We have plenty of resources available to you, such as NFL Props Picks, Touchdown Props, NFL Odds, NFL Futures, NFL Picks, and NFL ATS Standings.