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If we like Seattle's offense just enough against New England's defense and love the matchup on the other side of the ball, that should be enough to make the side clear. But if it's not, Seattle has a few other advantages too. Like usual, special teams should be a huge advantage for the Seahawks. The Patriots are actually the only team that ranked better by DVOA on punt returns this season — Marcus Jones and Rashid Shaheed rank first and second all-time in yards per punt return at the moment — but New England was below average or bad at every other facet of special teams, notably including its own punting and coverage. Seattle is good to great at every facet of special teams. The Seahawks are the best team in the league at kickoffs, both kicking and covering. All those little special teams edges may not seem like much, but when Seattle consistently starts its possessions 10 yards ahead of where New England starts, that's like a free first down on every possession. It adds up in a hurry! The Seahawks also have a significant rest and health advantage. Unlike Seattle, the Patriots didn't get a bye week. Instead, New England has played three close, tough games, two of them in difficult outdoor conditions. The Seahawks had that first week of the playoffs off to heal and will also have a massive preparation advantage. Seattle has faced only one new opponent since Week 15. This coaching staff has had plenty of time to self scout and get ready for every facet of the Patriots. That rest advantage also leads to health advantage. Drake Maye's shoulder concern has been a story for two weeks, and New England also has key injuries to guys like Robert Spillane and Harold Landry in defense. And as much as the scheduling thing has been overblown — whoever you beat, you're here now — it does matter. New England played 11 of its 17 regular season games against an opponent that'll have a new head coach next season, plus two more against the Jets and three others against the woebegone NFC South. Seattle, on the other hand, already has an NFL-record six wins against teams that won 12+ games this season, and they can add to that record with a victory here. Seattle is battle-tested time and again against big time opponents. That will matter in the game's biggest moments. New England actually has the better record on the season, thanks to having to play in the opening round, but teams with the better winning percentage are an awful 1-17 against the spread (ATS) in the Super Bowl since 2003 — and the one cover was the Patriots team that first trailed 28-3. The Patriots also failed to cover in the Conference Championship, showing some vulnerability, and that doesn't happen often. Since 1970, teams that fail to cover in the Conference Championship are 2-11-1 ATS in the Super Bowl. I grabbed Seattle -3.5 at open but it's been stubbornly stuck at -4.5 since. That's a hefty line as well as Super Bowl underdogs have played in recent years, and New England hasn't lost by more than a touchdown all season. But Super Bowl winners cover. They're 50-7-2 ATS, an awesome 88% cover rate, that that includes 31-1 ATS with a spread of six or less. New England's three playoff wins have mostly felt like an opponent beating itself. Seattle is the better team and the Seahawks control their destiny. Either Seattle will win or Darnold and the Seahawks will beat themselves. I'm not investing too heavily in a side when there are better ways to play it, but if you're playing, it's Seattle -4.5 or nothing.