Joe Dellera
7.8K
Total Bets
31.7K
Followers
Joe Dellera
Last 30d: 69-75-7 (+4.38u)
Joe Dellera's Picks
Today
G.Antetokounmpo o29.5 Pts-125
MIL
97
-
81
OKC
1u
FINAL 12/18
The Thunder have a million wings to defend Dame, Middleton, AJ Green, etc for this spot; however, it's still brutal to defend Giannis. I would expect them to put either Jalen Williams or Isaiah Hartenstein on him; however, I think this is a spot where you live with whatever Giannis puts up and make sure you limit Dame, Middleton, AJ Green, and Gary Trent Jr from the perimeter.
Hartenstein is extremely valuable as a help defender and his rebounding is incredible but he is still not strong enough to stop Giannis one on one.
OKC should stay in single coverage to prevent those drive and kick opportunities.
Giannis' median outcome in wins is 32 while in losses it's 30.5 so there is not a strong correlation between his scoring and winning. I like Giannis to score 30 points (-120 FD), a number he's hit in 70% of games this season.
93
21
OKC -4.5-115
MIL
97
-
81
OKC
1u
FINAL 12/18
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/bucks-vs-thunder-prediction-odds-parlay-pick-for-tuesday-december-17
66
15
I.Hartenstein o22.5 Pts+Rebs-140
MIL
97
-
81
OKC
0.71u
FINAL 12/18
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-best-bets-today-predictions-picks-for-tuesday-december-17
86
16
K.Middleton o7.5 Rebs+Ast-105
MIL
97
-
81
OKC
1u
FINAL 12/18
The Bucks have benefitted from Khris Middleton’s return even though he’s been on a minutes limit. Considering they are ring chasing I don’t think he will see a complete deviation from the restrictions; however, seeing closer to mid 20s would provide a boost.
Middleton has been able to provide counting stats even though he’s struggled a bit with his shot. He’s recorded 8, 8, 12, and 7 RA with slightly above average Assist conversions but below average rebound conversions. Considering this is a tough matchup offensively for Middleton, I like the assists and for the rebounds, OKC has improved on the glass with Hartenstein but they still aren’t a juggernaut in that department.
I’ll grab over 7.5 RA.
70
12
Pending
🌟 Karl-Anthony Towns to be an Eastern Conference All Star+240
1u
I'm expecting a big bump from KAT on the offensive side of the ball as he returns to the Center position. It should dramatically impact his spacing and his shot profile while also seeing a bump in rebounds not playing alongside Gobert.
Couple that with the NY Boost and the comments surrounding Embiid, Paul George, etc regarding their health/health management there are multiple outs for him to get there.
I love that players designated as a replacement will also be graded as winners.
31
19
Jalen Williams to be a Western Conference All Star-110
1u
Aligned with @TurveyBets
17
11
Julius Randle 5+ Assists per game+100
1u
27
13
Jalen Brunson o6.5 Assists per Game-115
1u
38
14
Chris Paul over 6.9 Assists per game-115
1u
21
14
LaMelo Ball over 3.3 3s per Game-130
1u
21
12
Victor Wembanyama o11.5 Rebounds per Game-110
1u
Via @TurveyBets
31
13
Luka Doncic over 9.2 Assists per Game-110
1u
Via @TurveyBets
22
14
Michael Porter Jr over 2.8 3s per Game-115
1u
This is my favorite one
15
13
Michael Porter Jr over 2.8 3s per Game - 24/25 Regular Season-115
1.5u
Relogging, not doubling down.
The Denver Nuggets will be adjusting to life without KCP this season and I expect a boost for MPJ.
MPJ has averaged 2.7, 3.0, and 2.8 3s per game in the three healthy seasons he’s played in despite the Nuggets playing at a Bottom 6 Pace in the league in each of those seasons (per NBA Advanced Stats).
There’s reason to believe in a change here with the acquisition of Russell Westbrook along with the injection of Christian Braun or Julian Strawther into the starting lineup instead of KCP. This is a significantly faster and more athletic rotation and Denver will be able to play at an overall faster Pace. Further, those players are not nearly as good as KCP from shooting beyond the arc. MPJ will need to absorb a greater number of 3 point attempts to maintain the team’s spacing. He is a deadeye shooter with a 41.0% mark from behind the arc throughout his career.
Even if we see a decline in efficiency due to an uptick in volume, 2.8 3s per game is too low for MPJ.
I’ll take over 2.8 3s per game.
19
14
Ja Morant Season Assists Leader+13000
0.1u
Discussed on Buckets
19
8
Lamelo Ball Season Assists Leader+4000
0.1u
19
10
JALEN WILLIAMS TO AVERAGE 23+ PPG, JALEN WILLIAMS TO AVERAGE 4+ APG +350
1u
Team Specials on DK
- NO Giddey this year and they replaced him with lower usage guys in Caruso and Hartenstein.
- In 2 games w/o Giddey, Williams averaged 22.5 ppg
- Mins w/ and w/o Giddey last season
- 25.554 points per 100 poss w/ Giddey
- 35.029 w/o Giddey
- About half an assist bump w/o Giddey and averaged 3.5 per game last year
22
13
V. WEMBANYAMA TO AVERAGE 23+ PPG, V. WEMBANYAMA TO AVERAGE 12+ RPG+265
0.5u
16
9
Victor Wembanyama to avg 5+ Blocks per Game+370
0.25u
Under player averages
Averaged 4.455 post ASB last season
21
10
V. WEMBANYAMA TO AVERAGE 25+ PPG, C. PAUL TO AVERAGE 8+ APG, SA SPURS TO WIN 40+ GAMES+800
0.12u
22
9
V. WEMBANYAMA TO LEAD THE LEAGUE IN RPG, SA SPURS TO WIN 35+ GAMES +1500
0.1u
19
12
Luka DONCIC TO AVERAGE 10+ RPG, L. DONCIC TO AVERAGE 10+ APG+1000
0.1u
Luka averaged this post ASB last season
23
12
KAT 22+ ppg +200
0.25u
🎙️ Discussed on Cash That Podcast
12
8
KAT 24+ ppg +500
0.1u
17
9
Michael Porter Jr 20+ ppg+475
0.1u
Discussed on Cash That Podcast
20
10
Andre Drummond Regular Season Rebound Leader+7500
0.1u
With you @TurveyBets
24
11
KAT Regular Season Rebound Leader+5500
0.1u
26
10
LeBron James to average 8+ Rebounds per Game+500
0.25u
19
12
JALEN WILLIAMS TO AVERAGE 20+ PPG, OKC THUNDER TO WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP (+10000000 DK)
1u
Team Specials on DK
- This is a “free” boost on OKC to win the title in my opinion, he averaged 19.1 last season primarily w/ Giddey and if he DOES NOT average 20+ ppg, it would dramatically affect my opinion of OKC anyway
***- This is how I'm betting OKC to win the title***
25
13
Mike Budenholzer NBA Coach of the Year+1400
0.25u
15
Futures
Golden State Warriors o41.5-110
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
Bet on 7/16
13
Boston Celtics u58.5-110
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.5u
45
12
Orlando Magic u47.5-110
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1u
Bet on 7/16 - discussed on Buckets
46
13
Memphis Grizzlies o45.5-115
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
1.5u
Bet on 7/16 - discussed on Buckets
37
15
Keegan Murray+10000
2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player
0.1u
🎙️ Discussed on the Cash That Podcast
Bet on 8/21
61
18
Memphis Grizzlies o49.5+150
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.25u
30
8
Memphis Grizzlies o54.5+600
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.1u
27
8
Mitchell Robinson+30000
2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year
0.1u
I am ready to get hurt again, and by I, I mean Mitch
33
17
Bennedict Mathurin+2500
2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year
0.5u
Play down to +1500
I like Mathurin's opportunity here as a guy that plays primarily off the bench. He's a microwave scorer and even though he's coming off of injury, he can easily score 17-18 ppg this season. He had better splits post ASG and at home, those are things that tend to regulate as players get more seasoned and watch more tape.
25
13
Payton Pritchard+10000
2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year
0.05u
For Pritchard, he continues to improve and Boston just destroys teams. He could sneakily score even 13 ppg this year and that's assuming perfect health from Boston who is coming off a Championship. It's worth a sprinkle.
20
12
San Antonio Spurs o39.5+200
2024-25 NBA Regular Season - Total Wins
0.25u
Discussed on Cash That Podcast
21
9
Anthony Davis+4000
2024-25 NBA NBA Cup MVP
0.1u
7
Karl-Anthony Towns+10000
2024-25 NBA NBA Cup MVP
0.1u
10
5
Karl-Anthony Towns+7500
2024-25 NBA NBA Cup MVP
0.1u
Discussed on Buckets 11/18
25
13
Bogdan Bogdanovic+15000
2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year
0.1u
11/18
32
12
Milwaukee Bucks+1600
2024-25 NBA NBA Cup - To Win
0.25u
11/23
29
9
Oklahoma City Thunder+1300
2024-25 NBA NBA Cup - To Win
0.15u
They have the tiebreaker over Phoenix and essentially the remaining games are
OKC VS LAL
PHX v SAS
LAL have tiebreaker over SAS SAS have tiebreaker over OKC OKC has tiebreaker over PHX PHX has tiebreaker over LAL
The way I project these games the most likely outcome is OKC 3-1 and PHX 3-1 at the end of group play. Think of this as almost an alt on OKC ML vs the Lakers today
15
6
Zach Edey+5500
2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year
0.15u
12/14
27
15
Past Performance | |||
---|---|---|---|
Yesterday | 1-3-0 | 25% | -1.49u |
Last 7 Days | 16-23-2 | 39% | -1.89u |
Last 30 Days | 69-75-7 | 46% | 4.38u |
All Time | 3493-4183-130 | 45% | 211.87u |
Top Leagues | |||
---|---|---|---|
NBA | 2506-3063-107 | 44% | 176.77u |
WNBA | 153-156-2 | 49% | 17.44u |
OLYMPIC_BASKETBALL | 50-76-0 | 40% | 17.13u |
MLB | 471-433-11 | 51% | 4.97u |
NCAAB | 56-53-0 | 51% | 1.09u |
UFL | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.10u |
World Cup | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.15u |
ATP | 1-2-0 | 33% | -0.17u |
UFC | 0-2-0 | 0% | -0.40u |
NFL | 211-284-7 | 42% | -0.44u |
NHL | 9-17-0 | 35% | -0.94u |
NASCAR | 2-16-0 | 11% | -0.97u |
Golf | 0-8-0 | 0% | -1.55u |
NCAAF | 16-21-0 | 43% | -1.76u |
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