No team has been more dominant than Iowa State over the last week. They annihilated Arizona State twice, then crushed Texas Tech by 22 yesterday. This team had its ups and downs this season, but they’re undoubtedly one of the most talented rosters in the country. The Cyclones limped to the regular season finish line but now look revitalized in Kansas City. These two teams met just two weeks ago with Arizona winning convincingly by 16 at home. However, when you take a deeper dive into that game, the final score doesn’t back up what the advanced metrics say. Despite losing by 16, Shot Quality actually had Iowa State winning that game by 9 on the road. That’s an incredibly drastic difference in result based on Shot Quality. It does make sense when you consider that Iowa State effectively limited Arizona at the rim. The Wildcats were held to just 15 points at the rim, the lowest of their season. Unfortunately, the Cyclones just couldn’t make a shot. Despite the big loss, I don’t think Iowa State should be too worried. They won the shot volume battle by 17 shots, which is absurd. They were also battling some tough calls, as Arizona went to the free throw line 26 times compared to Iowa State’s 13. It was the worst offensive game of the season for Iowa State in what I would categorize as an anomaly game. Obviously Arizona is elite, but that previous meeting wasn’t a good indication of how equally good Iowa State is. The Cyclones will have the two best players on the floor according to BPR with Joshua Jefferson and Tamin Lipsey. This is also an interesting schematic matchup. Iowa State purposely allows a lot of three pointers on defense, but Arizona simply does not take threes. The Wildcats shoot the third fewest three pointers in the entire country. We’ve already seen Iowa State’s rim denial work, and if their shots start to fall, things could swing much more in favor of the Cyclones. This should also be a pretty heavy Iowa State crowd, as Ames, Iowa is just a 2.5 hour drive to Kansas City. I think Iowa State gets its revenge here. Give me the Cyclones to cover.