Mets vs. Nationals Odds & Betting Predictions - July 4, 2024

Mets at Nationals

3:05 pm • MLB Network

New York Mets

7-6

0 - 1

Washington Nationals

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Irvin			4.41	10-14
J.Quintana			3.75	10-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 7-6	-1.5+141	o9-120	-110
Nationals 0-0	+1.5-170	u9+100	-108

Thursday 3:05 p.m.

July 04, 2024

Nationals ParkWashington

Over 9.5+102

WSH -105 (F5)

0.26u

Small to -108

Over 9-110

0.55u

Bet to -115

Under 1 (1st Inn)+100

FanDuel and Kambi overnight lines

Featured Insight
The Mets have scored 4.9 runs per game on the road since the 2022 season -- fourth highest in MLB (199 games). The Nationals have allowed 5.2 runs per game at home since the 2022 season -- second highest in MLB (200 games).

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Featured Insight
Nationals left-handed hitters have struck out just 15% against RHP over the last two weeks -- third lowest in MLB. Mets RPs have a strikeout rate of just 13% vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks -- lowest in MLB.

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The Mets are 8-25 (.242) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .142.

29% of Brandon Nimmo strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- 14th highest in MLB-- 88th Percentile. 45% of Dylan Floro strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- highest among qualified RPs-- 100th Percentile.

46% of Jesse Winker strikeouts are looking since last season -- second highest among hitters with at least 366 total PA's-- 99th Percentile. 36% of Adam Ottavino strikeouts are looking since last season -- tied for 12th highest among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 57% (443/775) in two strike counts since last season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 65% -- 0 Percentile.

Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 50% (471/943) when ahead in the count since last season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 61% -- 0 Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nationals are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Nationals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Nationals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	89-73	44-37	45-36	14-12	75-59
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nationals	76-78-8	37-39-5	39-39-3	9-16-1	65-62-7
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	71-91	38-43	33-48	15-11	56-78
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 3rd	NYM	W 7-5	+1.5 W	O 9	WSH +106
Jul 2nd	NYM	L 2-7	+1.5 L	U 9	NYM +120
Jul 1st	NYM	L 7-9	+1.5 L	O 8.5	NYM +100
Jun 30th	@TB	L 0-5	+1.5 L	U 8	TB +160
Jun 29th	@TB	W 8-1	+1.5 W	O 7.5	WSH +114

Alex Call
OF
Call is out with foot
Out
Josiah Gray
P
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out
Cade Cavalli
P
Cavalli is out with elbow
Out

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Quintana, P		95	7	1	0
RA.Houser, P		15	1	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	0-4	0	0	0
2B.Nimmo, LF	0-4	0	0	0
3F.Alvarez, C	0-3	0	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
5D.Stewart, DH	0-2	0	0	0
6M.Vientos, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
7B.Gamel, RF	0-3	0	0	0
8T.Taylor, CF	0-3	0	0	0
9J.McNeil, 2B	1-3	0	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Irvin, P		99	8	8	0
RD.Law, P		9	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Abrams, SS	0-4	0	0	0
2L.Thomas, RF	1-3	0	0	0
3H.Ramirez, DH	0-3	0	0	0
3J.Winker, PH	1-1	1	1	1
3J.Winker, DH	1-1	1	1	1
4J.Meneses, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Wood, LF	1-3	0	0	0
6N.Senzel, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
7R.Adams, C	2-2	0	0	0
8I.Vargas, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
9J.Young, CF	0-2	0	0	0