The Tampa Bay Rays host the Minnesota Twins on May 26, 2025. First pitch from George M. Steinbrenner Field is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Read our Twins vs Rays prediction and MLB pick below.
My Twins vs Rays Prediction
- Twins vs Rays Picks: Over 9 (-105, BetMGM)
My Twins vs Rays best bet is on the Over. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Twins vs Rays Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 9 -105o / -115u | +100 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 9 -105o / -115u | -120 |
Twins vs Rays Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Chris Paddack (MIN) | Stat | RHP Zack Littell (TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | W-L | 3-5 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 3.98 / 4.23 | ERA / xERA | 4.25 / 4.89 |
| 4.64 / 4.96 | FIP / xFIP | 5.43 / 4.44 |
| 1.23 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 7.4% | K-BB% | 11.7% |
| 39.2% | GB% | 38.3% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 85 |
| 113 | Location+ | 104 |
Tanner McGrath’s Twins vs Rays Preview
Steinbrenner Field is a slightly hitter-friendly park (101 Park Factor), but it does favor power hitters (121 Home Run Factor).
I’m expecting plenty of homers in Tampa on Memorial Day Monday.
The weather is projected to be extremely hitter-friendly, with temperatures in the high 80s, solid humidity and breezes blowing out toward right-center field. The ball should be flying.
Additionally, both starting pitchers are fly-ball guys, and thus very home-run prone.
Twins starting pitcher Chris Paddack hasn’t posted a ground-ball rate over 40% since 2022, and he’s allowed 22 home runs across 145 frames during that stretch (1.36 HR/9). He’s also lost some swing-and-miss stuff this season, as he’s on pace for career-low swinging-strike (8%) and strikeout minus walk (7%) rates.
Paddack is pitching to more contact, most of it in the air. That’s a poor recipe for Tampa on Monday, especially when he’s not excellent at avoiding hard contact (45% hard-hit rate allowed, 23rd percentile).
Rays starting pitcher Zack Littell has lost over two ticks of velocity on his fastball since 2023, so his advanced pitching model metrics have dropped dramatically (85 Stuff+ this season). As a result, he’s also lost his swing-and-miss stuff (8% swinging-strike rate, 12% strikeout minus walk rate), and he’s not doing well on contact (14% barrel rate allowed, fifth percentile; 44% hard-hit rate allowed, 30th percentile).
Littell has forced around a 35% ground-ball rate since the start of last season, and he’s become extremely homer-prone as he’s been forced to pitch to more contact — he’s allowed 14 home runs in just 59 innings this season (2.12 HR/9).
Both lineups are slightly better against right-handed pitching, and the Twins have been red-hot against the side over the past fortnight (131 wRC+).
I like Minnesota’s bullpen, but the team’s top five relievers have all pitched at least twice in the past three days — Jhan Duran is likely unavailable on Monday after tossing 41 pitches on back-to-back days over the weekend, earning the loss against the Royals on Sunday.
Tampa’s bullpen isn’t as extended, but the unit has looked shaky recently (5.00 xFIP over the past two weeks, 28th among MLB relief units during the stretch).
Our Action PRO Sean Zerillo projects over 9.7 runs for this matchup, which makes me like the Over even more.
Pick: Over 9 (-105, BetMGM)
