Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, July 5.
MLB Predictions Friday | Expert Picks & Previews (July 5)
Angels vs Cubs
Griffin Canning (RHP, LAA) vs Justin Steele (LHP, CHC)
I’m betting a trio of totals for Friday’s slate, beginning with a classic Wrigley Field Friday afternoon game.
We know the wind always plays in North Chicago, but I think the out-to-center-field double-digit breezes have overinflated this total. Our Action Network PRO model projects just 9.5 runs for this one, while BallParkPal projects closer to nine.
Justin Steele looks as good as ever, with earned run indicators in the low threes (3.20 ERA, 3.06 xERA) and advanced pitching model numbers above league average (101 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 102 Pitching+). He’s avoiding walks (5%) and barrels (6%) while earning whiffs with his slider (28% on the offering).
He’s coming off three solid starts against two decent offenses in the Brewers and Giants (twice), allowing seven earned across 20 frames (3.15 ERA) while posting a 22-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.71 FIP).
The Angels are a league-average offense against southpaws (104 wRC+, 12th), but they’ve been slumping over the past month (64, 29th). I think Steele can handle them at home on Friday.
I have much less confidence in Griffin Canning. But the Cubs have been a poor offense since April ended (93 wRC+, 21st). They overperformed their lack of depth in the early going, and Mike Tauchman’s injury takes away another above-average bat (110 OPS+).
I don’t entirely trust either erratic bullpen, but both units are reasonably well-rested and working on hot streaks. Over the past two weeks, Chicago relievers have posted a 2.40 ERA and 3.38 SIERA, while Anaheim relievers have worked to a 1.73 ERA and 3.92 SIERA.
Considering the whole picture, I don’t think the wind will play much.
Bet: Under 10 (-114, FanDuel)
- Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.
Red Sox vs Yankees
Tanner Houck (RHP, BOS) vs Nestor Cortes (LHP, NYY)
As much as I adore the guy, I’m worried about Tanner Houck.
He could never sustain a low-2.00s ERA with expected run indicators around or above three (3.68 xERA, 2.97 xFIP). But the bigger worry is his usage. Houck has never thrown more than 106 innings in a season, yet recently hit 107 in his most recent start against the Padres.
Lo and behold, he blew up, allowing seven earned runs across 4 ⅓ innings, getting crushed on contact (96 mph average exit velocity, three barrels). He allowed three homers – including two to Manny Machado – which could play into more general home run regression.
If the 47-39 Red Sox are serious about contending, they should probably add another reliable rotation arm at the deadline. Kutter Crawford has never pitched more than 130 innings, Brayan Bello is struggling, and Cooper Criswell’s injury means they’re working through bullpen games every five days. I’m unsure if the young, overextended staff can provide enough quality innings through the Dog Days.
The Yankees are slumping, but they’re still better against righties (122 wRC+) than lefties (104 wRC+), so they should battle with Houck today.
Nestor Cortes looks good, but the surprisingly southpaw-heavy Sox lineup has posted a 128 wRC+ against lefties over the past month. They’ve been hitting the side hard (44% hard-hit rate, 10% barrel rate), and Cortes has allowed a 91 mph average exit velocity across his past seven starts, leading to a 3.89 ERA.
It’s also worth mentioning that Cortes has a career 5.59 ERA against his hated divisional rival. Rafael Devers has smacked three extra-base hits in 12 head-to-head plate appearances (two homers and a double).
Of greater importance, the Bronx Bomber bullpen has blown up. Yankee relievers posted a 2.53 ERA through May 1, but their 4.37 xFIP suggested that wasn’t sustainable. Unsurprisingly, they’ve posted a 4.31 ERA since, including allowing three late-inning game-sealing runs on Thursday against the Reds, capping off Cincinnati's three-game road sweep in the Bronx.
The Red Sox boast a top-five bullpen, but they’re extended after Thursday’s extra-innings win against the Marlins, where Zack Kelly, Greg Weissert, Brennan Bernardino, Justin Slaten and Kenley Jansen were all deployed.
BallParkPal’s model projects 9.7 runs for this game behind a +27% Home Run factor, based on winds out toward left field. Our Action Network projections make the total 8.8.
Bet: Over 8 (-110, FanDuel)
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Blue Jays vs Mariners
Kevin Gausman (RHP, TOR) vs Luis Castillo (RHP, SEA)
I recently wrote a long piece discussing Kevin Gausman’s struggles for Pitcher List. The long and the short of it is that he’s lost velocity and movement on his fastball-splitter combination, meaning he can’t put away batters in two-strike situations – opposing batters are slashing .253/.300/.373 off him in 0-2 counts, worrisome compared to the .167/.200/.253 MLB average.
Gausman’s strikeout rate (23%) is down eight points year over year (31%). He’s allowed 14 homers across 91 innings, including three on 0-2 counts. His Stuff+ marks (96 overall, 92 on the splitter) have dropped below the league average for the first time.
Here’s Bryce Harper obliterating a 1-1 hanging splitter from Gausman:
Here’s Devers mashing a two-strike fastball off Gausman:
It's been the same story all year.
As a result, Gausman pairs a 4.75 ERA with a 5.41 xERA. He’s allowed 17 earned over his past 21 frames. He tossed a complete-game shutout against the A’s on June 8th but allowed six earned across three dingers in the prior start against Baltimore.
I don’t have much faith in Seattle’s offense, but anyone can score on Gausman.
Similarly, Luis Castillo isn’t having his best season, with earned run indicators near four (3.87 ERA, 4.00 xERA, 3.85 xFIP). The stuff looks fine, but his fastball velocity is down a tick.
He’s also slumping, allowing 19 earned over his past 26 frames. After posting a 29% strikeout rate through his first nine starts, he’s posted an 18% rate in the nine starts since. It’s strange, given Castillo typically starts slow and heats up, rather than vice versa.
The Mariners are a borderline top-10 bullpen (3.79 xFIP, 1.9 fWAR), but they were forced to deploy four higher-leverage relievers on Thursday (Andres Munoz, Ryne Stanek, Trent Thornton, Austin Voth).
That might not matter, given Toronto’s bullpen is among the league’s worst (4.29 xFIP, -0.9 fWAR). Jordan Romero is a mess (6.59 ERA, 7.39 xERA, -0.3 fWAR) and recently hit the IL alongside the team's best-performing reliever, Yimi Garcia (28 IP, 2.57 ERA, 2.30 xERA, 0.7 fWAR).
I don’t see any run-prevention happening across all nine innings on Friday in Seattle. Our Action Network model projects the total closer to 7.7, while BallParkPal’s projects it closer to 8.4.
Bet: Over 7 (-120, DraftKings)
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McGrath's Best Bets for Friday, July 5
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App (@tannerstruth).
- Angels vs Cubs Under 10 (-114, FanDuel)
- Blue Jays vs Mariners Over 7 (-110, DraftKings)
- Red Sox vs Yankees Over 8 (-110, FanDuel)
