Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my favorite bets for Friday, May 17.
MLB Predictions Friday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (May 17)
Pirates vs. Cubs
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-104 | 8 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +150 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-112 | 8 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -182 |
Starting Pitchers: Paul Skenes (RHP) vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP)
I have zero clue why the Pirates opened as 'dogs.
Perhaps it’s because of Paul Skenes’ 6.75 ERA? But that’s a fluke, given he was pulled from his MLB debut when the score was 6-1 in the fifth after he struck out seven of 20 batters faced, only for Kyle Nicolas, Josh Fleming and Colin Holderman to walk six batters – including a stretch of 15 consecutive balls – and allow a Mike Tauchman infield single in a seven-run half-inning.
Skenes stranded the runners, so technically, he’s on the hook. But that was so flukey and strange. I’m unsure if I’ve seen such absurdity regarding command and control. There was a lengthy weather delay during the inning, perhaps explaining some of the variance.
The fact is that Skenes shoved. He forced a 14% swinging-strike rate, inducing 14 whiffs. The Stuff+ mark on his slider checked in at 147. The splinker is a game-changing pitch.
His fastball was surprisingly mediocre, checking in with a 101 Stuff+ mark, and he struggled to command it a bit. But it’s still checking in over 100 mph on average with a good amount of arm-side break – it’s almost sinker-like. Also, I’m sure he’s working out the early career jitters.
All in all, I remain unfazed about MLB’s next pitching prodigy, even if he’s about to face the same lineup in consecutive starts.
At the minimum, Skenes has a better arm than Kyle Hendricks, who is hurting this season.
His whole game is predicated on pinpoint command and control. He leverages his changeup into whiffs or weak ground-ball outs, feeding the elite middle-infield duo of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner. It’s the only way when your fastball checks in around 88 mph.
But he's shown dubious command and control in the early going. His Location+ has only dropped one point year over year (from 104 to 103), but he’s walked 11 batters across his first 26 innings, a 9% rate that's nearly double his 2023 mark. He walked four Pirates just five days ago, somehow escaping with only one earned run after five innings.
While the changeup’s batted-ball profile looks mainly intact (15% hard-hit rate allowed), the whiff rate on the pitch has dropped eight points (32% in 2023, 24% in 2024). His sinker and four-seam continued to get hammered.
Hendricks has been unlucky — he has a crazy low strand rate (57%) and crazy high BABIP (.357), so his 10.04 ERA is far from reality. Still, his expected indicators (6.12 xERA, 4.45 xFIP, .529 xSLG, .385 xwOBA) suggest a replacement-level arm (-0.6 fWAR).
I give Pittsburgh the bullpen advantage alongside the starting pitching advantage, even if it produced one of the most pathetic performances ever witnessed against this club last week.
The Pirates have amassed 0.9 reliever fWAR this season (14th in MLB), while the Cubs are at 0.4 (21st). A big part of that is Pittsburgh’s 25% reliever strikeout rate, the fourth-highest mark in the majors.
The two have posted nearly identical expected indicators (4.17 to 4.15 bullpen xFIP). But the Cubs are currently without two key relievers, Adbert Alzolay and Yency Almonte, who are both on the 15-day injured list, so they had to rely on Hayden Wesneski and Tyson Miller on Thursday.
It's worth mentioning that de-facto closer Hector Neris is arguably the most overvalued pitcher in the sport. No qualified pitcher has a higher xERA (6.36) minus ERA (3.00). He's walked (14) more batters than he's struck out (13) across his 16 innings.
The Pirates bullpen has underperformed (4.39 ERA), but much of that can be blamed on Hunter Stratton (3.98 ERA, 2.44 xERA) and David Bednar (8.44 ERA, 5.35 xERA) running poorly. I don’t mind this group in the long run, especially when Pittsburgh ranks third among MLB teams in reliever Stuff+ (108).
Both bullpens had to work a bit last night in a nine-inning battle, somewhat neutralizing any potential rest advantages. If anything, it helps the Pirates, given Chicago's current lack of back-end depth.
The Cubs undoubtedly have the offensive advantage, but it’s closer than you’d think. Over the last two weeks, and against right-handed pitching, Chicago’s lineup checks in with a .309 xwOBA, while Pittsburgh is at .299.
The Pirates project poorly against right-handed pitching, but the Cubs still might be unable to compensate for their pitching deficiency — remember, the Bucs dropped 10 runs in this matchup last week. Also, Swanson might still be on the shelf for this game — he hasn’t played since May 7.
The Pirates have a significant pitching advantage across all nine innings on Friday afternoon at Wrigley. That could prove critical, considering the wind is blowing in, potentially turning this game into a pitchers' duel.
Again, I don’t know why the Pirates opened as 'dogs in a projected pitching duel when they have a significant run-prevention advantage. Despite Chicago’s higher-upside offense, BallParkPal’s model still projects the Pirates as whopping -183 favorites.
Let’s hope the bullpen doesn’t let down Skenes again.
Bets: Pirates ML (-104 | Play to -130)
Mets vs. Marlins
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +140 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -165 |
Starting Pitchers: Christian Scott (RHP) vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP)
I’m fortunate to write this column on a day when both Paul Skenes and Christian Scott are pitching — two of baseball's most exciting young arms.
Skenes is a pure power and raw stuff pitcher. Scott is more refined. He undoubtedly has the stuff, but he can pinpoint it.
Across 17 starts at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, Scott posted a 30% strikeout minus walk rate. He uses his lengthy extension (6.9 feet, 83rd percentile) to create a 95-96 mph fastball with an insane vertical approach angle, making it hard to square up. He pounds the top of the zone with it (63% high-location rate, 86th percentile), initiating a strike-heavy approach that allowed him to pitch 6 2/3 innings on only 94 pitches in his Major League debut.
His secondary sweeper has induced an 18% swinging-strike rate across his first two starts behind a 120 Stuff+ mark, and he’s been consistently locating it both in and out of the zone.
The advanced pitching models grade his splitter highly (120 Stuff+), but he’s still working out the kinks, struggling to locate the pitch (99 Location+).
Regardless, Scott is a buy candidate. Allowing only four earned runs with a 14:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio against the Braves and the Rays in your first two MLB starts is nothing to balk at. He forced a combined 33 whiffs!
Compared to the Braves and the Rays, the Marlins will be a significant step down in competition. Scott hung tough with Atlanta’s murderer's row and came out mostly unscathed, and he now will face a lineup with a 6% walk rate, 14% swinging-strike rate, 33% chase rate and 50% ground-ball rate against right-handed pitching.
Also, Luis Arraez plays in San Diego now. Scott should see a bump in production after turning down the difficulty.
The Marlins are somewhat turning things around, but it’s mainly been because of their pitching. They won two of three this week in Detroit by a combined score of 3-0, totaling just eight hits.
I hope Jesus Luzardo will be a significant part of Miami’s pitching turnaround, even if I have my reservations.
His 5.97 ERA is inflated from blowup starts against the Braves (5 ER across 5 IP) and Mets (7 ER across 4 2/3 IP), but his 4.45 xERA is an entire run worse than two years ago. His Stuff and Location marks are down slightly across his arsenal (from 104/100 to 100/98), resulting in fewer whiffs, more walks and a four-point decrease in his strikeout-minus-walk rate (16%).
But after a few weeks off and a rehab start at Single-A Jupiter (5 2/3 shutout innings, one hit, six strikeouts, no walks), Luzardo looked much improved against the Phillies (5 2/3 innings, two runs, four hits, eight strikeouts, one walk), forcing a whopping 18 whiffs.
After a rough start in this head-to-head divisional rivalry, Luzardo’s picked it up against the Mets, allowing only three earned runs across his last three starts against New York dating back to late 2022, striking out 21 in 19 innings.
Luzardo should continue that trend on Friday, mainly because the Mets aren’t hitting lefties, posting a league-worst 53 wRC+ against the side over the past month. They’re actually barreling up the side alright (9% barrel rate, 29% line-drive rate), but it’s not equating to production because they’re not pulling anything (39% pull rate, fourth-worst).
Additionally, the Mets had to travel overnight from Philadelphia to Miami after an extra-innings barnburner with the Phillies on Thursday. I wouldn't be surprised if the bats are a tad slow against Luzardo's rugged, upper-90s heater.
As mentioned, Miami is trending up on the mound, which includes the bullpen.
The Marlins are due for positive reliever regression (4.69 ERA, 4.25 xFIP), especially from Andrew Nardi (6.23 ERA, 3.39 xERA). Tanner Scott is still good, and I’ve been impressed with Bryan Hoeing (1.83 ERA in 20 IP) and Declan Cronin (1.33 ERA in 20 IP) in middle-to-high-leverage situations. Also, pulling AJ Puk from the rotation and putting him back in the closer role is the right decision, which he showed in the save against Detroit.
It's also worth mentioning the Marlins had an off-day on Thursday, so their relief corps should be well rested.
Meanwhile, the Mets bullpen is lights out. Getting Edwin Diaz back has been tremendous (25 strikeouts and five saves in 16 appearances), and Adam Ottavino is better in the set-up role. But breakout campaigns from Reed Garrett (0.43 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 21 IP), Jake Diekman (3.46 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 13 IP) and Jorge Lopez (2.66 ERA in 20 IP) have made this unit deep and near-impenetrable. The Mets rank third in reliever ERA (2.98), fourth in reliever fWAR (2.0), first in reliever strikeout rate (29%) and first in reliever Stuff+ (111).
I think Scott will continue his impressive rookie campaign. I expect Luzardo to continue trending up. I don’t believe either lineup will hit. I believe both bullpens will shove.
Still, I’m not quite ready to buy back into Luzardo. I need to see more encouraging results before I discard some of his troublesome underlying metrics.
Additionally, I'm unsure who among Garrett (23 pitches), Ottavino (13), Diaz (25), Lopez (six) and Diekman (22) will be available after grinding through that aforementioned extra-innings win in Philly.
Ultimately, I expect a low-scoring Mets win. However, I feel most comfortable backing the Mets in the first half behind Scott — while also avoiding managerial uncertainty — and taking the full game under based on struggling lineups and the undervalued Miami bullpen.
Bets: Mets F5 ML (-115 | Play to -125) | Under 7.5 (-105 | Play to -115)
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Tigers vs. Diamondbacks
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-142 | 8 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +108 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 8 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -130 |
Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal (LHP) vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP)
I can’t make an argument for Tarik Skubal regression.
He’s the best pitcher in the American League and the deserved favorite for Cy Young (+225 at BetMGM). Among qualified starting pitchers, Skubal ranks second in ERA (2.02), first in xERA (2.12), third in fWAR (1.8), third in strikeout-minus-walk rate (27%) and second in Pitching+ (108).
He keeps finding more velocity on his fastball, now sitting at almost 97 mph on average. The Stuff+ model finally grades the pitch above average (115), and there’s always been some correlation between his fastball velocity and earned run indicators.
But Skubal is more than just a big arm and a pretty face. I wrote this lengthy preseason piece about him for Pitcher List, diving crazy deep into his rapid developments on his ascension to ace status.
I won’t recap the whole thing here, but here’s a short synopsis:
On top of higher velocity, Skubal has significantly improved his fastball location, shoving it early and often at the top of the zone. In turn, he’s getting ahead early in counts and using his secondary stuff – specifically, a devastating changeup against righties and a rock-solid slider against lefties – to generate two-strike, low-zone whiffs, chases and ground balls.
He’s improved mechanically but also drastically enhanced his pitch mix and decision-making. The art of pitching is about continually evolving, and Skubal personifies that.
As incredible as the Snakes are against southpaws (136 wRC+, second in MLB), I can’t imagine Skubal will blow up. The preseason skepticism surrounding Skubal was that he faced an elementary schedule of offenses during his breakout 2023 campaign.
Well, he's faced some elite lineups during this early season stretch (Astros, Yankees, Rangers, Twins) but he has allowed more than two earned runs in a start only once — ironically, at home against the A's.
For what it's worth, Arizona’s lineup has cooled off against the left side, posting a more reasonable .744 OPS over the last two weeks behind a low walk rate (4%) and high ground-ball rate (46%).
Of greater importance, Ryne Nelson has to be better than his numbers indicate (5.33 ERA, 4.92 xERA, 4.21 xFIP). Among 182 starting pitchers with at least 10 innings this season, the young righty ranks 10th in Pitching+ (108), tied with Tanner Houck and Luis Castillo.
Nelson has four above-average offerings by Stuff+. He’s added a cutter that’s shown encouraging early returns. He’s added a tick to his fastball velocity, upping the Stuff+ mark on that pitch 11 points year over year (102 to 113).
The problem with Nelson is that he’s a hard-throwing, hard-contact guy. He’s always had a horrific batted-ball profile, and this year is no different (92 mph avg. exit velocity, fifth percentile; 47% hard-hit rate, eighth percentile).
Hopefully, a home outing against the slumping Tigers will make Nelson look like a stud. Over the last two weeks and against right-handed pitching, Detroit’s lineup pairs the ninth-highest strikeout rate (25%) with the 11th-highest ground-ball rate (44%), resulting in the seventh-lowest xwOBA (.293).
The Tigers have a solid top-of-the-order core with Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Mark Canha. But the bottom of the order is a disaster, featuring two hitters with an OPS+ below 30 (Javier Baez, Colt Keith) and two more with marks below 80 (Spencer Torkelson, Jake Rogers).
Hopefully they'll hit plenty of grounders toward Arizona's elite defense (fourth in Defensive Runs Saved, second in Outs Above Average), as the Snakes will surely gobble those up.
Besides, we just saw Detroit’s lineup get shoved into a locker by Ryan Weathers and Trevor Rogers. I think Nelson can hang.
I’m iffy on the bullpens, but both will be well rested after an off-day on Thursday.
Regardless, I have so much faith in Skubal and just enough faith in Nelson and the Motor City Kitties' lackluster offense to keep this game under eight runs for nine innings.
Bets: Under 8 (-105 | Play to -115)
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Reds vs. Dodgers
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+180 | 9 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -115 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-198 | 9 +100 / -120 | -1.5 -105 |
Starting Pitchers: Frankie Montas (RHP) vs. James Paxton (LHP)
At least once every summer, I find myself stuck in a vicious cycle of fading a starting pitcher I view as obscenely overvalued and bleeding units because he continues to overperform.
This year, that pitcher is James Paxton.
I actually think Paxton’s arm is dead. The Big Maple lost two ticks of fastball velocity in the offseason, now sitting at just 93 mph on average. As a result, he’s seen a drastic decrease in his swinging-strike rate (from 12% to 8%) and a drastic increase in his zone-contact rate (from 84% to 90%).
When you can’t miss bats, you’re forced to nibble around the edges more, where Paxton has walked (24) more batters than he’s struck out (22) across 38 innings.
His fastball Stuff+ mark is 25 points lower than last year (from 95 to 70), resulting in a 15-point decrease in his overall Stuff+ rating (74). He pairs it with a reasonably poor batted-ball profile and a three-point year-over-year reduction in his Location+ mark (from 100 to 97).
Paxton pairs a laughable 2.58 ERA with a 5.89 xERA and a 5.60 xFIP. The only pitcher with a higher xERA minus ERA is Neris, who has faced 91 fewer batters.
So, I'm forced to continue riding this fade train, even if it means backing a Reds lineup with a 74 wRC+ against southpaws over the last month.
But over the last two weeks and against left-handed pitching, the Reds lineup pairs the highest walk rate (11%) with the highest pull rate (48%) and 11th-lowest ground-ball rate (42%). When you're remaining disciplined and pulling the ball in the air, you can be sure better days are ahead — especially if Elly De La Cruz starts making elite swing decisions again.
I’m not overly excited to back Frankie Montas, but he’s pieced a few solid outings together. More importantly, his Stuff+ and Location+ marks are up considerably across his entire arsenal year over year (from 85/95 to 101/102).
Additionally, the Reds bullpen is a vastly underrated unit, ranking 11th in reliever fWAR (1.0) and fifth in reliever strikeout rate (15%). Fernando Cruz’s splitter has sent shockwaves through the league, as he’s forced 34 strikeouts in 18 innings, with 29 coming on this pitch:
It might be the best pitch in baseball:
Obviously, the Dodgers have a monster lineup advantage, but even considering that, BallParkPal’s model projects this game as a near pick ‘em (Reds +109), likely because Paxton is due for an overwhelming amount of negative regression.
Bets: Reds ML (+180 | Play to +130)
Quick Hitters From Sean Zerillo
Here are a few wagers from the best baseball handicapper on the planet, who deserves his weekends off after dominating this column from Monday through Thursday.
As taken from The Action Network App:
Red Sox vs. Cardinals
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-115 | 8 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +145 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-105 | 8 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -170 |
Starting Pitchers: Brayan Bello (RHP) vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP)
There are some cheap first-half ML numbers still available for the Red Sox on Wednesday, who will have a significant starting pitching advantage when Brayan Bello (3.13 ERA, 3.77 xERA, 102 Stuff+) battles Kyle Gibson (3.67 ERA, 5.42 xERA, 91 Stuff+).
Bello has a nasty sinker-changeup mix that forces whiffs and ground balls galore, even if he's inconsistent. I'd much rather bet on him than Gibson, among the more overvalued pitchers in baseball.
The Cardinals offense has been red hot lately, boasting the fourth-best wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks (127). While Boston likely projects with the better lineup — especially behind a surging Rafael Devers (143 wRC+, 13% walk rate) — you must get a cheap number to make this play viable.
Don't bother with a full-game side or total here, as Boston's bullpen is cooked after a tough home series with Tampa Bay.
Bets: Red Sox F5 ML (-115 or better)
Rockies vs Giants
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+145 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -150 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-170 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +125 |
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Feltner (RHP) vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP)
Zerillo likes the Rockies ML at +137 or better.
The Rockies have won seven straight games! They just swept the Padres in San Diego!
This series might be a good opportunity for the Rockies to keep the streak alive. The Giants recently lost Patrick Bailey, Nick Ahmed, Michael Conforto, Jung Hoo Lee and Jorge Soler to the IL. They're literally a Triple-A lineup as currently constructed.
Bets: Rockies ML (+145 | Play to +137)
McGrath's Bets for Friday, May 17
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App (@tannerstruth).
- Mets F5 ML (-115 | Play to -125)
- Mets vs Marlins Under 7.5 (-105 | Play to -115)
- Padres vs Braves Under 8.5 (-110 or better)
- Pirates ML (-104 | Play to -130)
- Rangers ML (-164 | Play to -175)
- Red Sox ML (-115 or better)
- Reds ML (+180 | Play to +150)
- Rockies ML (+145 | Play to +137)
- Tigers vs Diamondbacks Under 8 (-105 | Play to -115)
