PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
With the Rangers and Blue Jays kicking off their series in Toronto tonight, I’m targeting the Texas offense on its first seven innings team total.
While this isn’t technically a player prop, it's a fade of Blue Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi. After a strong start to the season, the southpaw has pitched to a 6.64 ERA over his last 11 appearances.
Over those 11 starts, Blue Jays opponents have cleared this line eight times.
Tonight, Kikuchi is catching the Rangers at the wrong time. After a rough start to the season, Texas’ bats are heating up, especially against lefties.
Over the last six weeks against lefties (283 plate appearances), the Rangers have accrued a 138 wRC+ (fourth-best over that span), .853 OPS (third) and .222 ISO (fifth).
You may ask, why am I playing a first seven innings line as opposed to a full-game team total? Well, I’m looking to capitalize on Kikuchi’s weaker splits the third time through the batting order (.937 OPS allowed).
And we can likely avoid the backend of the Jays’ bullpen, namely Yimi Garcia (2.70 ERA) and Chad Green (1.82 ERA). In fact, the Blue Jays' relievers have pitched to a combined 4.50 ERA / 4.57 xFIP through the seventh inning this season – both ranking in the bottom six.
I love this spot for the hot Rangers bats tonight. I have them projected to score their third run before the end of the sixth inning.
