MLB Strikeout Props Tonight
Rangers vs. Orioles
Albert Suarez
Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+105)
This 1-2 pitch to Brandon Lowe on May 31st was the only time Albert Suarez has struck out a left-handed hitter with his curveball this season.
The curveball is a pitch I have felt Suarez needs to start throwing more frequently to left-handed hitters, considering he has a 44% whiff rate to LHB with his curve this season. Yet, he only uses it 6.2% of the time.
Therefore, it's been encouraging to see Suarez increase his usage of that curveball to lefties over the last month, and he threw it a season-high 16% of the time last game against the Astros.
Tonight, Suarez will be facing a Rangers lineup that could potentially have six left-handed batters in it, so it will be critical for him to continue to lean on the curveball — especially with two strikes — if he wants to raise is K-rate.
He’s also a pitcher who is due for some positive regression in my Putaway% Luck Rankings, as he likely should have struck out ~8.5 more hitters this year, but simply hasn’t due to bad two-strike luck.
Suarez's four-seam fastball and cutter, specifically, should be able to generate more Ks with two strikes going forward. Combining this with a potential increase in usage of his curveball to left-handed hitters and I think Suarez is a great investment to go over his K prop today.
I'm projecting him closer to a 61% chance to clear 3.5.
Pick: Albert Suarez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
Cubs vs. Brewers
Colin Rea
Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Colin Rea’s approach this season has been to pitch to contact. He leans heavily on his sinker (29% usage) that only generates a 7.5% whiff rate. Over the last month, he’s been leaning on it even more with two strikes (28%) and is a clear sign he’s not necessarily trying to strike hitters out.
It’s been working for him as he’s only allowed a .254 BABIP this season, a number that will surely regress. He’s a pitcher who has seen his K% drop ~3.5% with runners on base throughout his career, so the incoming regression in terms of allowing more base runners should also only lower his K% going forward.
As always, my simulations can highlight sneaky reasons for why I show value on an over or under based on which part of the lineup he’s expected to be pulled from the game. The Cubs will likely have two very tough Ks in the Nos. 1 and 3 spots in the order (Nico Hoerner/Cody Bellinger) with the best part of the order for him to rack up Ks in the 6-9 hitters.
I have him getting pulled right around the 4-5 hitter the third time through the order, meaning he will likely have to face the tough half of the lineup 3 times and the easy part only twice.
It’s one of the reasons I’m showing him with around a 63% chance to stay under 4.5.
Pick: Colin Rea Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120 at BetMGM)
