The Philadelphia Phillies (91-60) and Milwaukee Brewers (87-64) finish their three-game series on Wednesday night at American Family Field. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Philadelphia and Bally Sports Wisconsin.
These are the two of the top three teams in the National League and they split the first two games of this potential NLCS clash. Each of these division leaders is firmly entrenched in their position with a lead of over eight games, but the positioning and seeding between the Phillies, Dodgers and Brewers are only separated by four games. With a week and a half to go, today is a big chance for Philly to extend its best record lead, or for Milwaukee to move just a bit closer to the top. The Brewers, however, have already had a good Wednesday as they clinched the NL Central after the Cubs lost to the Athletics.
In this Wednesday rubber game, the Phillies hand the ball to Aaron Nola, while the Brewers look to Freddy Peralta to help win the series. Let's get into the latest MLB odds, including my Phillies vs Brewers prediction and pick for Wednesday, September 18.
Phillies at Brewers Prediction
- Phillies-Brewers picks: Phillies F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-135 | Play to -145)
My Phillies-Brewers best bet is on the Phillies First Five Innings Team Total Over 1.5 Runs, where I see value at -135. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+100 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | +1.5 -218 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-120 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | -1.5 +180 |
- Phillies-Brewers Moneyline: Phillies +100 | Brewers -120
- Phillies-Brewers Over/Under: 7.5 total runs (-108o / -112u)
- Phillies-Brewers Spread: Phillies +1.5 (-218) | Brewers -1.5 (+180)
Phillies vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) | Stat | RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-8 | W-L | 11-8 |
| 2.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 3.62 / 3.85 | ERA /xERA | 3.75 / 3.98 |
| 4.09 / 3.57 | FIP / xFIP | 4.27 / 4.04 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 1.24 |
| 17.0% | K-BB% | 17.0% |
| 43.8% | GB% | 36.6% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 105 | Location+ | 98 |
Justin Perri’s Phillies vs Brewers Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Closer To Locking in First Seed
The Philadelphia Phillies are the best team in the National League. For the entirety of the season their offensive weapons have produced, their rotation has kept them within range to win games and their bullpen has remained competitive. They are one of the strongest teams against left handed pitching in the majors, first by wRC+ this season, while much more average against righties.
Philly will need every run, as it will not be easy to hold their lead on the best record with the Dodgers just two games back and with one of the easiest schedules possible remaining. They do own the tie break this season, so LA would need to surpass them in the standings, effectively making the lead three games for home field advantage come October. The main difference is that the remaining win percentage for Philly is .514 and for the Dodgers its .434, which is the easiest in the NL by over 30 points.
Regardless of the schedule maker's choices this season, Philly's gotta like its chances, and today against a Brewers team that is looking forward is another great shot to close the door and further lock up their chances to hold that first seed throughout their playoff run.
They'll be handing the ball to Aaron Nola, who is having another solid season at 12-8. He's maybe getting a bit unlucky according to his xFIP numbers, but he's a reliable arm that throws above average stuff with good location. Honestly, this is probably the perfect time to buy in on trusting his abilities, as he's coming off back to back bad starts where the stat lines look bad the underlaying performance looks good.
Nola was throwing a no-hitter into the fifth against the Mets in his last start before an ugly string of singles knocked him out the game and tacked on six runs in one frame. The outing before that he was throwing beautiful curveballs but still somehow stumbling against the Marlins of all teams. This is the exact type of spot where you can likely buy in on Nola for a good price. Velocity is up, curveball is working, it's more likely to work than this bad run might indicate.
The Phills do struggle a bit on the road though, only 39-34 away from home while a strong 52-26 in their own park. They've also only won 12 of 28 games when made the underdog by the market, though those 28 games as dogs have gone over the total frequently, with a 20-6-2 O/U record.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: The Tough Assignment of Facing Motivated Opponents
The Milwaukee Brewers currently have the largest lead over their division out of the six leaders in Major League Baseball, but still sit as the three seed if the playoffs were to start today. They're two games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the second seed but lost the season series against LA this year, so would need to fully overtake them, rather than just tie, to earn a bye in the first round.
The biggest issue that prevents them from that valuable bye is that Milwaukee's late season opponents are equally motivated, they finish this series against Philly today and then take on Wild Card hopeful Arizona starting tomorrow.
The mathematical likelihood of remaining in the third seeded spot is further increased by LA playing eight of their last eleven games against either Miami and Colorado, two of the weakest teams in the league. Thus, one has to wonder about the priorities of this Milwaukee group. Does winning every night really matter as much as staying healthy and managing workloads if their destiny is all but set? Probably not.
Of course, one has to trust players still want to play their hardest to earn their individual contracts and the team will of course look to do their best to attempt a coup on the Dodgers, but I'd bet good money that there's no mobility in Milwaukee's future. They will be the third seed.
That's a lot of talk without much hard analysis, but it's important. I will be looking to isolate my bet on the Phillies side today and likely keep the run scoring of the Brewers out of my wager due to the increased variability of their scenario. We'll analyze Freddy Peralta's form and use that to take a play on Philadelphia's run scoring.
Peralta is coming off a start that, at the surface level looks good. He threw five innings of one-run ball on the road against Arizona, a formidable team, and struck out five en route to a 2-1 Brewers win. If you were left with just that information, you might think it was a start that could predicate future success. In fact, it was the opposite. Peralta walked four, and allowed six hits for the third straight start. He somehow avoided trouble, but every sign points to him giving Philly plenty of chances on the base paths today.
Milwaukee's bats have been about average in their recent few weeks, rating at a 103 wRC+ in the last 30 days with a dip to a 90 wRC+ in the last 14 days. Does that fall off maybe line up with their realization that their best bet for their post season hopes are to get healthy and focus forward? We can only hypothesize. It is worth noting that they are the fourth best team in the NL against right handed pitching this season, so this could be a solid matchup even if their priorities are elsewhere.
Phillies vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
There has been slight movement here towards the Brewers on the money line overnight. The price opened closer to a pick'em at -110 but is around -117 currently depending where you shop. The total has bumped up from 7.5 to 8 this morning as well.
My pick for this game is on the Phillies to score a couple runs early against Peralta. I want to take the performance of the Brewers offense out of my bet and I do not want much to do with bullpen antics, so I'll isolate the Philadelphia offense with a first five inning team total.
Peralta's allowing close to a 2.00 WHIP over his last two starts and stronger offenses have consistently plated multiple runs against him. At O1.5 -135, this isn't a tall ask for a strong Phillies team. If they are able to get 8+ men on base in the first five innings, we have a great chance to get this bet home for a winner.
Pick: Phillies F5 TT O1.5 -135 (Play to -145 | DraftKings)
Moneyline
It's tough for me to recommend any side other than the Phillies today. This is their game and series to lose. They are the team that has more reason to go out there and get a mid week win, their competition has the easiest schedule in the league and they can not allow for any opportunities to be given away, especially with a big series against the Mets on the horizon. If I'm able to understand high likelihood of the Brewers being forward focused, I imagine their analytics department knows better, I doubt the Brewers prove profitable to bet on through this final 10 days of the season. It's Philly or nothing on the ML, I certainly am not laying a price with the Brewers.
Run Line (Spread)
I'll go a bit contrarian here, if you want to bet a spread, your best bet is an alternate spread on the Phillies to win this game handsomely rather than the standard available lines. If you would like to only consider the +1.5 on the dog and the -1.5 on the favorite, I'd likely say to go with the Phillies again and take the +1.5. They're on the road, which means they get their ninth inning at bats regardless of the score, and have every reason to fight tooth and nail in this game. The Brewers have gone 39-46 ATS this season when made the favorite, and the Phillies are 10-18 ATS as the underdog.
Over/Under
I'm looking for a game Under here, which might disagree with my F5 Team Total play a bit, but with both sides having their top bullpen arms due for a day of work, we could see this game really slow up once the starters leave. It's also starting to be that cool time of year across the country; warmer, more humid temperatures that helped totals soar over all summer have subsided and scoring is starting to dip as we head towards the autumn. The Brewers have seen a 3-6-1 O/U record in their last 10 games but a 37-28-8 O/U record when playing at American Family Field this year.
Phillies vs Brewers Betting Trends
- 65% of the bets and 54% of the money are on the Brewers on the moneyline.
- 75% of the bets and 73% of the money are on the over.
- 70% of the bets and 77% of the money are on the Phillies to cover the run line.
Phillies Betting Trends
- Phillies are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Phillies are 34-39 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Phillies' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Phillies' 78 last games at home.
Brewers Betting Trends
- Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Brewers are 41-37 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Brewers' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Brewers' 73 last games at home.
Phillies vs Brewers Weather
