PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB player prop picks of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Gavin Stone Under 16.5 Outs (-110)
Mariners vs. Dodgers | 10:10 p.m. ET
After an impressive May and June that saw Gavin Stone post a 1.97 ERA, the Dodger’s right-hander has come back down to earth of late. Since the calendar turned to July, Stone has pitched to a 6.12 ERA while allowing a 1.011 OPS.
He’s stayed under this player prop line in six of his seven starts in that span. He’s also been slightly less economical with his pitches, averaging 3.9 per plate appearance (he had been at 3.6 before July).
And the Dodgers are exercising caution with their rookie in the later innings. Opponents have capitalized on seeing Stone a third time through the order, with a .800 OPS.
Dave Roberts pulled the plug on Stone’s outings at less than 90 pitches in six of his past seven starts, including two in which he only had allowed one run through five innings pitched.
The pitch efficiency will be critical here because Stone’s opponent tonight, the Mariners, averages the most pitches per plate appearance (4.02) in baseball. This has only been bolstered by trade deadline acquisitions Justin Turner (4.32) and Randy Arozerana (4.27), who rank third and fifth out of 141 qualified hitters.
The issue with the Mariners, however, has been the inconsistency of their offense. But they’ve been better of late, with a 113 wRC+ and .715 OPS over the last two weeks against righties.
After a solid, six-inning outing from Clayton Kershaw yesterday, the Dodgers bullpen is in decent shape heading into the series against Seattle.
We have several outs (pun intended) to cash this bet. I have Stone projected to get the hook after five innings.
