PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Read below for his player prop pick for Red Sox vs. Yankees on Sunday, July 7.
After a torrid start to the season that had him firmly as the AL Rookie of the Year front-runner, Luis Gil has seemingly hit a wall.
The right-hander has failed to clear this line in each of his last four starts for the Yankees. His control issues have come back to haunt him, as he’s issued 13 walks across his last 14 and 2/3 innings.
Coming off elbow surgery that kept him out of virtually all of last season (he threw 4 innings in single-A), Gil is likely fatigued. At 89 and 2/3 innings, he’s already pitched more than he has since the 2021 season, when he threw 108 and 2/3 innings between all levels.
The Red Sox should serve as a tougher opponent for Gil as well. Not only have they been hitting well of late (115 wRC+ and a .763 OPS versus righties over the last two weeks), but they’ve been patient on the plate. Over the last month, the Sox have the ninth lowest chase rate (per Statcast via Fangraphs).
Gil needed 104 pitches just to finish five innings against the Sox three weeks ago at Fenway Park. I’m expecting similar pitch efficiency issues tonight.
Pick: Luis Gil Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-128) | Play to (-145)
