Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Odds & Betting Predictions - May 23, 2024

Mavericks at Timberwolves

12:30 am • TNT

Dallas Mavericks

4-1

108

108 - 105

Minnesota Timberwolves

1-4

105

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mavericks 4-1	+4.5	+4.5-110	o207-110	+160
Timberwolves 1-4	u207	-4.5-110	u207-110	-191

Thursday 12:30 a.m.

May 23, 2024

Target CenterMinneapolis

MIN +142 (Live)

N.Reid o9.5 Pts (Live)-115

0.87u

Forgot to track collab with Sosa

Over 101.5 (2H)-110

1.1u

L.Doncic o8.5 Ast-105

1.05u

D.Lively o13.5 Pts+Rebs-110

1.5u

DAL +175

1.75u

DAL +5-113

M.Conley o6.5 Ast+120

Under 207-110

R.Gobert o12.5 Rebs-113

1.13u

L.Doncic o28.5 Pts-120

0.5u

#Tailing @JoeDellera

N.Reid o9.5 Pts-122

N.Alexander-Walker o6.5 Pts-110

1.1u

DAL +4.5-110

0.91u

T.Hardaway o5.5 Pts+105

@JayMoneyIsMoney23

DAL +155

1.55u

@HPBasketball

DAL +4.5-110

0.91u

@bryanfonseca

L.Doncic o28.5 Pts-123

0.81u

@TurveyBets

DAL +4.5-110

0.91u

Don't trust the Timberwolves in a favorite's role and Luka Doncic has had a few days to rest up.

K.Towns o28.5 Pts+Rebs-117

1.17u

L.Doncic o8.5 Rebs-120

1.2u

A.Edwards o5.5 Rebs-120

L.Doncic o39.5 Pts+800

0.25u

40 chicken nuggets

DAL +4.5-110

0.91u

Luka is pulling up in braids I hear

K.Towns o19.5 Pts-125

Over 206.5-110

0.91u

L.Doncic o28.5 Pts-120

0.83u

Luka to the moon

P.Washington o5.5 Rebs-129

DAL +4.5-105

0.95u

Under 207-110

Under 206.5-111

R.Gobert o12.5 Rebs-112

M.Conley u6.5 Ast-135

0.74u

P.Washington o5.5 Rebs-120

0.83u

Under 207.5-110

K.Towns u3.5 Ast-140

0.71u

Under 208-110

D.Jones o0.5 Blk-145

1+ block in 10/12 Playoff Games averaged 1.3 this season against Minn with 0, 1, 3

D.Jones o1.5 Blk+300

0.1u

L.Doncic o28.5 Pts-105

0.95u

The Mavericks face off against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals. I’m targeting Luka Doncic to have a big game. Luka’s points prop is set at 28.5 a number he has crushed this season. Overall, Luka has averaged 32.9 ppg but has had some difficulty in the Playoffs scoring just 27.3 ppg. Much of this was due to matchup though. The Clippers could throw a mix of Kawhi and Terrance Mann at him while Oklahoma City deployed Lu Dort. While the Timberwolves have elite wing defenders such as Jaden McDaniels (who I expect to start of Luka), Luka’s size should give him the edge. Also, Luka was seemingly dealing with a knee injury throughout the Oklahoma City series, but got into his stride to finish the series with 31 and 29 point performances. Here, I think Minnesota has better options to defend everyone else on the Mavericks with Ant on Kyrie and Gobert clogging up the interior. Minnesota’s defense is elite, but Luka is a tough cover due to his skill but also because of Minnesota’s personnel. I’ll grab Luka to exceed 28.5 points, especially with him playing on extra rest.

P.Washington o12.5 Pts-110

0.91u

K.Towns o19.5 Pts-125

1.25u

K.Irving o29.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-130

0.77u

L.Doncic o28.5 Pts-105

0.48u

Game one preview pod with Brandon incoming

Over 207.5-110

M.Conley u18.5 Pts+Ast-125

0.5u

#Tailing @PropBomb

M.Conley u18.5 Pts+Ast-125

Veteran leader on the team that’s coming off a season-high 39 minutes after fighting an ankle injury and a game 7 bloodbath vs. the Denver Nuggets. With just two days of rest going into a new series, I am anticipating a looser rotation as teams feel the water, and one player that I expect playing fewer minutes is Mike Conley. For Game 1 vs. Dallas, I’m expecting the minutes to be around 29-33. Unlike in the DEN series where the Wolves needed to put out two bigs to match Jokic/Gordon, we can see a little more NAW playing time as he’ll be needed for help vs. Kyrie Irving. And being that the Mavs are the best remaining PnR BH defense (37% of his FREQ%), getting to his shots with elite defenders contesting won’t be easy. It’s a telling sign with books shoting his 3PT line juiced under 2.5 at -188. As for assists, I really like tackling it on because he’s only getting 36% of his conversions coming from the 3PT. He’s getting a lot of his success from the PnR with Rudy Gobert, but with centers Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford playing drop coverage, those will be tough to come by. Kyrie will be on Ant and PJ Washington should be on KAT, contesting looks at the 3PT line. And as for the historical data, overall, in games where Conley plays 29-34 minutes with the key rotation and only makes 2 3PTs he averages 15.4 PA, going under this line in 11 of the 13 games (85.9% rate). #PlayerProps

DAL +152

3.8u

DAL +4.5-110

R.Gobert o15.5 Rebs+350

0.15u

R.Gobert o15.5 Rebs+350

0.15u

R.Gobert o11.5 Rebs-122

1.5u

Give me all the Rudy boards against Dallas

R.Gobert o11.5 Rebs-122

0.6u

Tailing @JoeDellera

Featured Insight
The Mavericks have shot 38% from three (144/377) in close and late situations this season -- 3rd-best in the NBA; the Timberwolves have allowed opponents to shoot 38% from three in close and late situations this season -- 4th-worst in the NBA.

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Featured Insight
The Timberwolves have shot 39% from three (525/1,358) at home this season -- T-4th-best in the NBA; the Mavericks have allowed opponents to shoot 38% from three on the road this season -- 9th-worst in the NBA.

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NBA Public Betting

Timberwolves are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Timberwolves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Timberwolves are 22-19 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Timberwolves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 24 of Timberwolves' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Timberwolves	39-42-1	17-23-1	22-19	27-36	12-6-1
Mavericks	48-34	21-20	27-14	32-18	15-16

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Timberwolves	44-38	24-17	20-21	32-31	12-7
Mavericks	36-45-1	16-25	20-20-1	22-28	13-17-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Timberwolves	9-6	N/A	N/A	40-23	9-10
Mavericks	13-9	N/A	N/A	37-13	12-19

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 20th	@DEN	W 98-90	+4.5 W	U 201	MIN +162
May 17th	DEN	W 115-70	-2 W	U 205.5	MIN -130
May 15th	@DEN	L 97-112	+4.5 L	O 205	DEN +155
May 13th	DEN	L 107-115	-4 L	O 205	DEN -170
May 11th	DEN	L 90-117	-3.5 L	O 205.5	DEN -158