The Packers just lost at home to the Panthers. This team must stink, right? Not so fast. Every week in the NFL is a battle, and some results simply won’t make sense. One of the biggest keys in betting this league is forgetting what happened the week before and not letting it skew your opinion the following week. Let’s get into this game. The Packers are a legitimately good football team and have been excellent at home in the Jordan Love era. Lambeau Field is the biggest home field advantage in the NFL, and a nighttime primetime game in Green Bay is a completely different level of atmosphere. It’ll be even louder with the reigning Super Bowl champions coming to town. I usually don’t weigh home field advantage much in the NFL, but in this spot, you simply have to. The Packers are the better team in terms of DVOA, ranking 8th on offense and 7th on defense. The Eagles sit 9th in both. Offensively, Green Bay ranks eight spots higher in EPA/play and fifteen spots higher in success rate. They own the best passing attack in the league by EPA, and Jordan Love is getting sacked only 4% of the time compared to Jalen Hurts at 9.7%. Defensively, the teams are similar, but the Packers still hold the edge in success rate. Philadelphia continues to underwhelm. They sit 5th in our NFL luck rankings and have shown clear flaws. The offensive line and in turn, the run game, has taken a major step back from last year. Their record is pretty deceiving. Five of their six wins have been by one score. A few bounces go the other way and they’re probably sitting at 4–4. Their blowout win against the Giants looks nice on paper, but New York has the worst run defense in the league. It would have been more surprising to see Philly lose both meetings. The Packers loss to Carolina was shocking, but it was a classic look ahead spot to today’s matchup. Matt LaFleur always brings his A-game against quality opponents. We saw it in Week 1 when Green Bay controlled and dominated Detroit, my top rated team in football. LaFleur is also 11-4 ATS at home following a loss. Our model projects a 26.20–22.15 Packers win, giving a fair spread of -4.05. We’re getting a discount on Green Bay after the Panthers loss, while the Eagles remain consistently overvalued because of last year’s success. I’ll gladly fade Philadelphia and buy low on the Packers. Take Green Bay to win.