The BYU Cougars take on the Houston Cougars in Houston, TX. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Houston is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -500. The total is set at 132.5 points.
Here’s my BYU vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for January 4, 2025.
BYU vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: BYU +9.5 (Play to +9)
My BYU vs Houston best bet is on the Cougars spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
BYU vs Houston Odds, Lines, Picks
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 132.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -119 | 132.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
- BYU vs Houston spread: Houston -9.5
- BYU vs Houston over/under: 132.5 points
- BYU vs Houston moneyline: Houston -500, BYU +375
- BYU vs Houston best bet: BYU +9.5 (Play to +9)
My BYU vs Houston College Basketball Betting Preview
Houston runs the nation’s most aggressive and athletic ball-screen blitz, sending two to the ball on every screen to force havoc and turnovers. The Cougars also aggressively swarm and over-rotate on the interior, denying the paint and rim at all costs.
The best way to beat the blitz is through five-out spacing, crisp perimeter passing and lights-out weak-side spot-up shooting. Given its aggressive rotational nature, the blitz will undoubtedly allow plenty of 3-point opportunities — Houston ranks 293rd nationally in the 3-point rate allowed.
BYU runs the perfect offense to exploit that weakness.
Kevin Young’s dribble hand-off, zoom-heavy scheme ranks in the top-50 nationally in ShotQuality’s Spacing, Shot Selection and Shot Making metrics. BYU ranks in the top 25 in 3-point rate, shooting 36% from deep on over 30 attempts per game.
BYU will attempt to play inside-out, and if Fousseyni Traore and Egor Demin can invite Houston’s early help before quickly dishing the ball back to the undermanned perimeter, the Cougars will generate plenty of open jumpers on Saturday.
On the other end of the court, Houston still relies on dribble creation, mid-range jumpers and second-chance points. BYU isn't a tremendous mid-range defense, and it’s merely average against ball-screen operators (.78 PPP allowed, 43rd percentile).
However, BYU is elite at preventing second-chance opportunities, leading the nation in defensive rebounding rate and second-chance points per game allowed.
And without those precious put-back opportunities, Houston will be trading low-efficiency 2s (it’s shooting 48% from 2-point range, 272nd nationally) for high-efficiency 3s. That’s our route to a BYU cover.
I'm worried that Houston could light it up from 3, given that BYU runs an uber-compact defense that ranks 339th nationally in 3-point rate allowed. But while Houston is shooting 41% from deep, it still prefers to break defenses down on the interior, and I’d be surprised if that mark doesn’t regress.
Following four consecutive double-digit victories against KenPom sub-100 teams, I’m looking to catch Houston sleeping against an elite perimeter-oriented offense.
