With NFL, college football and the holidays taking center stage this weekend, college basketball has a much thinner slate than usual on Saturday.
That doesn't mean there isn't betting value, though.
In fact, we have college basketball best bets below, including our staff's three top picks for Saturday, December 23.
College Basketball Best Bets for Saturday
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mississippi State vs. Rutgers
By D.J. James
The battle between the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Mississippi State Bulldogs will be a rock fight on Saturday.
Rutgers ranks 14th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 187th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. This is a massive difference. The Bulldogs are relatively similar, ranking 12th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 73rd Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
Rutgers ranks 237th in Adjusted Tempo, averaging 19.3 seconds per possession on defense. Mississippi State ranks 170th in Adjusted Tempo and averages 18 seconds per possession on offense.
The Bulldogs rank 50th in 3-point attempt rate, while only making 31% from deep. Rutgers ranks 64th in defensive Open 3 Rate, per ShotQuality, while Mississippi State ranks 268th offensively.
On the other end of the floor, Rutgers only can get to the free-throw line, ranking 56th in free-throw attempt rate. But the Scarlet Knights shoot only 31.8% from deep and 46.6% from inside the arc. In addition, they're only hitting 64.2% of free throws, so the Knights may struggle if they get fouled
One concern in this game is the turnover rate for both teams. They're both much more successful on the defensive end.
Other than that, Mississippi State is a superior rebounding team than the Scarlet Knights.
Even still, these teams are slow-paced enough and so inconsistent with making shots that the under should be in play and can be played to 128.
Pick: Under 129.5 (Play to 128)
Villanova vs. DePaul
I love the situational spot for DePaul.
The Demons haven’t played since last Saturday and haven’t left Chicago since Dec. 6. They also have a full week before their next game.
So, they should be well-rested and well-prepared to throw the kitchen sink at Villanova in their Big East opener.
Conversely, Villanova pulled out a miracle double-overtime thriller on the road against Creighton on Wednesday. The ‘Cats managed a 14-point second-half comeback while the Jays shot 5-for-24 from 3.
Saturday is the perfect letdown, sleepy-and-gassed spot for a shorthanded team – Villanova is likely still without starting guard Justin Moore.
It’s also worth mentioning that Kyle Neptune-led teams aren’t good on short rest, with Fordham and Villanova recording a 16-23 ATS record with between one and three days of rest.
From a schematic perspective, I don’t mind the matchup for DePaul.
Tony Stubblefield coaches a ball-screen rim-running attack that heavily utilizes cutters. Meanwhile, Neptune’s defense is poor against the pick-and-roll (.98 PnR PPP allowed, 195th nationally) and against cutters (1.36 PPP allowed, 206th nationally).
Even worse, Villanova will be without its best ball-screen coverage defender – Moore is lights out defending at the point of attack. It’s a good time for Chico Carter Jr. to have a career game (.92 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP, 74th percentile).
On the other end of the court, DePaul is actually solid at running shooters off the 3-point line, ranking 83rd in 3-point rate allowed and 61st in unguarded jumpers per game allowed.
That’ll be huge against a Villanova offense that lives on the perimeter, ranking seventh naturally in 3-point rate.
If DePaul does anything well, it's run shooters off the 3-point line, which could play against 'Nova this weekend #BigEastUpsetspic.twitter.com/1lstGHrEhk
— Tanner McGrath (@tannerstruth) December 21, 2023
But ultimately, the situational spot is too good to pass up. Even if DePaul is an abjectly terrible basketball team, I’m betting the fresh Demons will keep this one within arm’s reach against an exhausted Nova squad.
The ShotQualityBets model projects Villanova as an eight-point road favorite on Wednesday, so I feel good about catching double digits.
Pick: DePaul +11.5 (Play to +8.5)
St. John's vs. UConn
The UConn Huskies' campaign to repeat as national champions was going smoothly until the return of conference play. The Huskies had lost just once, dropping a road game in the near impossible position of playing at Kansas.
The dangers of the Big East take a backseat to no one, striking right away as UConn dropped its conference opener at Seton Hall, and lost Donovan Clingan to an injury in the process.
Those dangers continue to lurk, with coaching legend Rick Pitino off to a 1-0 start in Big East play with his St. John's Red Storm.
Assuming Clingan (ankle) doesn't play, this game looks a lot scarier for the Huskies. Against St. John's, defensive rebounding needs to be a major focus.
Facing the Johnnies without your best rebounder is quite the challenge. Joel Soriano, among the national leaders in defensive rebounding, should be in line for a big game.
Asking St. John's to knock off this UConn team on the road, is a lot to expect — even without Clingan — unless the Huskies have an ice-cold shooting night.
After UConn just did so on the road at Seton Hall, I'm not sure I buy it happening again. I'll resist the urge to nibble on the Johnnies moneyline, instead trusting some Pitino magic to keep it within single digits.
Pick: St. John's +11.5 (Play to +10.5)
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