While college football and the NFL are still taking center stage, we have a monster Saturday of college basketball before the start of 2024.
Dive in below for college basketball best bets and our staff's three top picks for Saturday, December 30.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Virginia vs. Notre Dame
We might be reaching the bottom of the barrel on Notre Dame. You could probably catch a falling knife with the Irish at some point.
I don’t believe Saturday is that point, mainly because I don’t think the Irish match up well with the Cavs.
As everybody should know, Tony Bennett runs a blocker-mover offense. That means copious amounts of down-screens, back-screens and cutters.
Notre Dame allows .89 PPP on handoff sets (35th percentile) and 1.26 to cutters (20th percentile). The Irish have been moderately better against off-ball screen actions, but I don’t think that’ll be enough to stop the Cavs.
Meanwhile, I don’t expect the Irish to score much on Saturday.
Somehow, Micah Shrewsberry’s squad has devolved into a half-court, ball-screen, isolation-heavy squad. That already raises red flags for me, but it’s even worse against Virginia, as Reece Beekman is among the nation’s best ball-screen and isolation defenders.
Behind Beekman, the Cavs are the nation’s fifth-best isolation defense (.73 PPP allowed) and 48th-best ball-screen defense (.92 PPP allowed). Markus Burton and Braeden Shrewsberry can try, but I don’t expect them to score much.
I’ll be betting on Shrewsberry’s Irish soon enough, but for now, I’m betting they get blown out in a brutal schematic matchup. I don’t know how they’ll score against Bennett, Beekman and Co.
Our Action PRO model projects Virginia as an 11.5-point road favorite in South Bend on Saturday, so I’m happy laying anything under double-digits with the Cavs.
Pick: Virginia -9.5 (Play to -10)
UCLA vs. Oregon
By D.J. James
UCLA is one of the slowest teams in all of college basketball. The Bruins rank 314th in KenPom’s Adjusted Tempo. They also average 18.3 seconds per possession on offense and 18.4 seconds per possession on defense.
The Bruins are also in somewhat of a rebuilding year. They haven't yet figured it out on offense, ranking 308th in effective field goal percentage. They're shooting a horrid 31.3% from outside the arc and 45.2% inside the arc.
They do tend to get to the free-throw line (ranking 41st in free-throw attempt rate offensively), but they're only shooting 72.4% collectively from the strike.
Their opponent on Saturday will be Oregon. The Ducks rank 143rd in Adjusted Tempo, so they're slightly quicker than average. The Ducks are better offensively, ranking 66th in effective field goal percentage.
They're shooting a touch under 35% from deep and a little less than 54% from 2-point range. However, even though they get to the line often, they're shooting only 68.2% from there.
Adding on, Oregon just doesn't take efficient shots. The Ducks rank 228th in Open 3 Rate, 154th in Rim-and-3 Rate and 257th in Finishing at the Rim, per ShotQuality. UCLA ranks 195th, 359th and 244th in those same three metrics.
Now, both teams do foul the opposition often, but this can't be the only way to score.
Look for the under to hit in this game, and take it to 135.
Pick: Under 137.5 (Play to 135)
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Penn vs. Houston
In Houston's 12 games, the under is 9-3. In 10 games played at home, the under has hit in seven of eight. That might leave you thinking that the Cougars are due for a high-scoring game.
I'm not so sure.
Any team traveling to play a team as feisty, athletic and lethal as Houston is scared to get into a back-and-forth game.
The Cougars love to play a slow tempo, but their opponents often want to keep that speed as well. At least in a smaller sample size you have a chance to be efficient. With more possessions, you're just giving Houston more chances to smother you.
Penn knows this and will also look to limit possessions. No matter the tempo, it's hard to see a team of Penn's caliber scoring at Houston.
The Cougars have played seven home games against teams outside KenPom's top 150. Those seven teams have more games scoring under 40 (!) points than over 50 points, with an average of just 44 points.
Trust the trend and take the under here, even at such a low number.
