The first day without college football is here, and that means one thing: It's time for college basketball to take over the collegiate landscape.
Dive in below for college basketball best bets and our staff's four top picks for Tuesday, January 9.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
| 7 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Houston vs. Iowa State
Under 132
By D.J. James
Houston has shown time and time again that it's been one of the best college basketball programs in the country for the last decade. In what looks like a defensive battle, the Cougars have a true road test on Tuesday against the Iowa State Cyclones.
The Cougars rank 10th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and first in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom. They average 18.5 seconds per possession on offense and 18.2 seconds per possession on defense. This leads to an Adjusted Tempo ranked 324th.
Iowa State ranks 52nd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and fifth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Cyclones average 16 seconds per possession offensively and 18 seconds per possession defensively, leading to an Adjusted Tempo rank of 89th.
Simply put, these are both defensive-minded teams. Even if Houston ranks 10th in efficiency, it's shooting 35.8% from deep and only 49.6% from inside the arc. Adding on, the Cougars rank 205th in free-throw attempt rate, and they're only hitting 66.8% from the strike.
Needless to say, on the road, they shouldn't manufacture many points from the line.
The Cougars also rank 210th in 3-point attempt rate, so even though this is the most efficient portion of their offense, they're taking fewer 3s than average.
Iowa State is shooting 36.7% from 3-point range. Like Houston, the Cyclones don't take many 3s, ranking 309th in 3-point attempt rate.
Free throws may be an issue in this game, as Iowa State ranks 25th in free-throw attempt rate on offense and 173rd defensively. That said, the Cyclones are also shooting under 70% from the line.
Since both teams maintain control over the ball, don't expect many points in transition, either.
Take the under and play it to 130.
Pick: Under 132 (Play to 130)
Iowa State +3.5
By John Feltman
This is the spot of the evening across the landscape of college basketball. The Cyclones are coming off a tough loss on the road at Oklahoma, and they return to Ames in hopes of knocking off the undefeated Houston Cougars.
The Cougars have been hands down the best defensive team in the sport thus far, but the Clones enter this matchup fifth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
According to ShotQuality, the Cougars are due for some negative regression, as the metrics suggest their 14-0 record may be a bit fraudulent. That's not to say they aren’t amongst the elite teams, but it’s safe to say some correction may be in order.
Meanwhile, the Clones are due for some positive regression themselves, and what better way to cash in on that than in a conference home game against an undefeated opponent. The Clones have the physicality and length in order to break through against this Cougars defense.
Freshman forward Milan Momcilovic has been blazing hot from deep, shooting 41% beyond the arc. He’s going to be a key component of this matchup, as I expect the Clones to try and stretch the floor with a Cougars team that's 331st in Average Height.
Although their defense is elite, the Cougars are extremely aggressive on the defensive end. They're allowing their opponents to go to the free-throw line quite frequently.
This is the area the Clones must capitalize on, as they haven't been a great free-throw shooting team thus far. If they’re able to improve those numbers in this contest, they should hang tough until the very end.
Between the matchup and the situational spot, this screams like an upset could be brewing in Ames. At the very least, I expect the Clones to lose a close one, and I’ll happily take my chances with them here.
Pick: Iowa State +3.5 (Play to +2.5)
BYU vs. Baylor
By Greg Waddell
Welcome to Big 12 play, BYU. The Cougars have been a metrics darling all season long, and for good reason — they've blown out every overmatched opponent they've faced. When they win games, they win games by a lot.
None of that helps them on the road at Baylor. BYU is just 1-2 on the season against top-50 opponents. They're 0-1 in true road games and they just lost by 11 at home to Cincinnati.
Baylor has an offense that can keep up with BYU and a defense that limits 3-point attempts. That matters against a BYU team that's so 3-point reliant. Last game, the Cougars attempted 46 3s and just 18 shots from inside the arc.
The Bears win the 3-point battle more often than not — they rank first in all of college basketball, making 45% of their shots from 3. Opponents shoot just 29% from 3 against them. This is a nightmare matchup for a BYU offense that has no answers outside of 3s.
To add to the fun for the home side here, Baylor just opened a new arena, Foster Pavilion in Waco. The home court advantage has never been larger for the Bears program under Scott Drew. They cut the ribbon on the new arena with a 19-point victory over Cornell last week (and a cover). This place will be rocking again on Tuesday.
Baylor is 8-0 at home this year with all eight wins coming by 15 points or more. This is a tough spot for a BYU team coming off its worst performance of the season. This line has already risen from Baylor -2 up to Baylor -4.5.
Any more movement beyond Baylor -5 feels like too much.
Pick: Baylor -4.5 (Play to -5)
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Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech
By Kevin Rogers
Notre Dame didn’t have high expectations coming into this season, but the Fighting Irish have been extremely competitive, especially in ACC play.
The Irish have covered in all four ACC contests, including against Miami, Virginia and Duke. Notre Dame shocked Virginia as a hefty home underdog before coming up short in defeats to NC State and Duke.
Georgia Tech made waves earlier this season with solid home underdog wins over Mississippi State and Duke, but Damon Stoudamire’s team has hit a rough patch of late. The Yellow Jackets are 4-4 in the last eight games, with only one win against a top-100 foe (UMass in Hawaii).
The Ramblin’ Wreck haven't been a trustworthy team as a favorite, most recently coming off a home loss to Boston College. Georgia Tech owns a 1-4 record ATS when laying points this season and looked better in the games in which it was listed as an underdog.
The Irish have posted a strong 6-2 ATS mark as a ‘dog this season, and have allowed 67 points or less in five straight games.
This seems like a bounce-back spot for Georgia Tech, which is coming off consecutive conference losses to Florida State and Boston College, but Notre Dame is playing with confidence and is worth a strong look to cover again tonight in Atlanta.
Pick: Notre Dame +6.5 (Play to +5.5)
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