While the NFL's Divisional Round will take center stage this weekend, that doesn't mean we're going to neglect the great college basketball betting value we have on Saturday.
Dive in below for college basketball best bets, including our staff's six top picks for Saturday, January 20.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 12:30 p.m. | |
  | 2 p.m. | |
| 2 p.m. | |
  | 2:15 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Baylor vs. Texas
Things aren't going well for Rodney Terry and the Texas Longhorns at the moment. Look no further than the “Horns Down” fiasco that broke out following a home loss to UCF on Wednesday.
As a result, I think the recent skid has created a last-stand type of spot for Texas at home against one of the Big 12’s best in Baylor.
The crowd at the Moody Center should be engaged for a top-10 in-state rivalry, and Texas should have some avenues to some offensive success in this one.
Dylan Disu has started to look like his old self after missing the first couple of months earlier this season due to injury. He could be in line for a big day against a mediocre Baylor frontcourt.
The Bears haven't been the same team offensively when on the road, so despite Texas’ recent defensive struggles, it should be able to string together some stops in this one.
I also expect Max Abmas to continue to find his groove in the half-court, and Tyrese Hunter should be in line for some positive shooting regression.
Give me the Horns to show up for this one and find a way to pick up a win in a game they badly need.
Hook ‘Em.
Pick: Texas -1 (Play to -2)
Rhode Island vs. Dayton
The Dayton Flyers (14-2, 4-0) will look to keep a perfect A-10 record alive as they host the Rhode Island Rams (9-8, 3-1) at home on Saturday.
The Flyers enter the game with the second-ranked defense in the conference, allowing just 64.6 points per game. The Rams' offense presents a favorable matchup for the Flyers, ranking 128th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, putting up 108.8 points per 100 possessions
What Dayton does well, especially in conference play, is field goal and free-throw defense. The Flyers rank 49th in the nation in effective field goal defense (46.8%) and third nationally in free-throw rate defense (19.8%).
Look for DaRon Holmes II to be a difference maker on defense for the Flyers. Holmes leads the A-10 in rebounding (7.7 RPG) and has 35 blocks on the season.
On offense, Dayton is actually one of the more efficient teams in the country, but it doesn't score a lot of points. The Flyers rank 11th in the A-10 in scoring with an average of 73.2 points per game, which is one place behind 10th-ranked Rhode Island (73.9 PPG).
The primary reason behind Dayton’s lack of offensive production is tempo. It's one of the slowest-paced teams in the nation, ranking 355th in Adjusted Tempo, with just 63.1 possessions per 40 minutes.
Rhode Island is not a particularly up-tempo team either, ranking 159th in the nation in Adjusted Tempo (68.5). I expect both teams to stick to their game plans and keep the pace of play slow.
My model is projecting the total for this game at 140.5, and I think a bet on the under has value all the way down to 141.5. I like the combination of the stingy Dayton defense and its meticulously paced offense to grind this game out.
Pick: Under 143.5 (Play to 141.5)
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UCF vs. Houston
Houston -16.5
By D.J. James
The Houston Cougars dropped two games in a row last week, and that had not happened since the 2021-2022 season. But Kelvin Sampson had his team ready in its last contest against Texas Tech.
Now the Cougars take on UCF at home, and it could turn out to be a bloodbath.
Houston is the best defensive team in the country. While UCF ranks 17th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, the Cougars are much better at turning opponents over — while maintaining control over the ball on offense — compared to the Knights. This could be a wide discrepancy, and UCF has constant turnover issues offensively.
Adding on, UCF is bad on offense in general, despite beating Kansas and Texas. The Knights are shooting a putrid 31.6% from deep and 49% from inside the perimeter.
Meanwhile, Houston is not just a one-gear team. The Cougars are hitting 50% from inside the arc and 35% from outside. They can get open from 3, while UCF gives up a ton of open 3s defensively. Sure, opponents are shooting 32.4% on the Knights from outside, but they also give up a ton of 3-point attempts.
The only problem area for the Cougars could be fouling, as they get the free-throw line less often than the Knights and tend to foul more often, too. However, with this game being in Houston, it could negate some of those foul calls on the home team.
Lastly, UCF ranks 184th in points per possession at the rim on defense. Houston ranks 60th on offense. Since Houston is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, be prepared for plenty of second chances for the Cougars.
Bet them to -18.5.
Pick: Houston -16.5 (Play to -18.5)
Under 129.5
By John Feltman
Folks, this is what under dreams are made of. Both of these teams are excellent on the defensive side of the ball, and the fact that the Knights will be on letdown watch after their big upset over Texas makes it even more juicy.
The Coogs are the No. 1 defensive team in the country, and the Knights are horrific offensively. Quite frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Knights didn't eclipse 50 points in this game.
The Knights are 17th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, so they're more than capable of slowing down the Coogs’ offense. I have a feeling this is going to be a rock-fight type of basketball game.
The only way I see the game flying over is if the Knights suddenly become elite at free throws and the Coogs force a million turnovers that result in quick buckets. The Coogs will dictate the tempo from the opening tip and will bleed the clock on almost every offensive possession.
I don't blame you for laying the large number with the Cougars because of their advantage on the offensive end; the situational spot fits that narrative. I love the under, so bet this as soon as possible.
Pick: Under 129.5 (Play to 127)
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Northwestern vs. Nebraska
Nebraska -2.5
Saturday is the perfect situational spot for the Cornhuskers.
Northwestern is coming off a tight, three-point home win over Maryland, while Nebraska is looking to bounce back after losing three out of four, with all three losses coming on the road and the most recent one coming in overtime to Rutgers.
Nebraska is 8-4 against the spread at home this year, and a big reason why is sharpshooter Keisei Tominaga. Since the beginning of last year, Tominaga is shooting over 40% from 3 in Big Ten play on 161 attempts.
The Huskers run plenty of secondary actions to pop him open, and he’s delivered time and time again. He’s now posted double-digit scoring performances in five straight, including 28 against Indiana and 19 against Purdue in two outright conference victories.
I see him having a big day on Saturday, primarily because of Northwestern’s defensive scheme.
Chris Collins runs a compact, four-in defense that prioritizes protecting the paint. The Wildcats are an elite post defense because they ensure they’re an elite post defense, dropping deep and hovering over interior scorers while allowing only 26 paint points per game.
That’ll work against interior-based offenses like Purdue and Wisconsin, but problems arise against perimeter-oriented teams like the Huskers.
The Wildcats rank 232nd nationally in 3-point rate allowed and 265th in unguarded catch-and-shoot rate allowed, which means Tominaga will be free to fire all afternoon long.
Meanwhile, Nebraska’s defense might be legit.
The Huskers rank 30th nationally in 2-point shooting allowed (45%). They’ve been rock solid defending ball-screens, cutters, rim-runners and mid-range isolation shooters.
Northwestern’s offense relies heavily on Boo Buie dribble-driving in ball screens and creating in the mid-range, and I don’t see that happening against Nebraska’s much-improved defense.
Even if the Wildcats try to create by using secondary actions to pop open Ty Berry, the Huskers rank well above average in handoff and off-ball-screen PPP allowed.
Combine the situational spot with the schematic matchup, and I’m betting the Huskers post a big win in Lincoln on Saturday.
It’s also worth mentioning that blindly betting on Big Ten home teams is usually a smart investment, adding to Nebraska’s situational edge.
This is over the past eight seasons:
Pick: Nebraska -2.5 (Play to -4)
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Nebraska -2.5
By Brett Pund
In another year where home Big Ten teams are covering the spread at high rates, we get this opportunity to take Nebraska at under three points.
I just can’t pass this up.
This is a Cornhuskers team that's already shown that they're very good at home. In their previous two conference games at Pinnacle Bank Arena, Nebraska beat then No. 1 Purdue and Indiana, both by double digits.
This is also the same squad that defeated Michigan State at home.
Meanwhile, this will be just the fifth game for Northwestern out of the state of Illinois.
I also don’t like the fact that the Wildcats rank 281st in opponent free-throw rate, according to Bart Torvik, and are going up against a team that's second in the conference in shooting from the charity stripe. This isn’t a good recipe against home referees.
The Wildcats have also scored over 50% of their points from inside the arc, which is an area where Nebraska ranks 31st in the country in opponent 2-point shooting.
The Cornhuskers will be without forward Juwan Gary in this game, but I just think the line has shifted too much here for his absence.
I like the home team to cover this small spread.
Pick: Nebraska -2.5 (Play to -5)
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