Eastern Kentucky vs Purdue Odds, Pick
| Eastern Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+29.5 -110 | 154.5 -110o / -110u | +OFF |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-29.5 -110 | 154.5 -110o / -110u | +OFF |
The Purdue Boilermakers host the Eastern Kentucky Colonels on Friday night.
Purdue is among the nation's elite teams behind potential player of the year Zach Edey. The Boilers rank 12th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
Conversely, the Colonels haven't looked too promising this year, with just one D-I win.
However, they still play decent interior defense, which should help keep this game Under the total.
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Eastern Kentucky ranks 224th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 292nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Colonels rank 97th in Adjusted Tempo, averaging 16.5 seconds per possession on offense and 16.4 seconds on defense.
They struggle defending the 3, ranking 219th nationally in Open 3 Rate allowed. Opponents are shooting 45.3% on EKY from deep, which ranks 362nd nationally.
Although the Boilers are shooting well from deep (39.2%), they also rank 216th in 3-point attempt rate and 103rd in Open 3 rate, so they're not getting efficient open looks from deep.
That said, EKU's interior defense is solid. Opponents are shooting just 45.1% from 2-point range, 39th nationally. The Colonels also rank seventh in block rate, so the post-defense is there.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue plays almost exclusively through Edey in the post, ranking ninth nationally in post-up rate.
Eastern Kentucky ranks 38th nationally in at-the-rim points per possession allowed, so even if Edey is a dominant interior presence, look for Isaiah Cozart and Co. to disrupt Purdue's flow and prolong possessions.
Purdue plays slower than EKU, ranking 111th in Adjusted Tempo, averaging 17.1 seconds per possession offensively and 16.2 seconds per possession defensively.
The Boilers turn the ball over more than they should, which is partially why they dropped a game at Northwestern. They rank 103rd in offensive turnover rate.
However, the Colonels don't force turnovers, ranking 324th in defensive turnover rate.
Purdue also ranks 299th in that metric, so don't expect many transition points from either team.
The Boilers are great at getting to the charity stripe, especially Edey. But the Colonels are relatively solid at limiting foul shots, ranking 113th nationally in free-throw rate allowed. Purdue should get some home calls, but perhaps not too many.
Purdue has a huge advantage on the glass, and the Boilers will get their share of put-back buckets. But EKU's interior defense is so solid that the Colonels shouldn't allow second-chance points at will.
Eastern Kentucky vs. Purdue
Betting Pick & Prediction
Alabama cooked this Eastern Kentucky team from the perimeter because that is essentially the entire Alabama offense.
However, Purdue will try to score on the interior, where the Colonels can defend.
The Boilermakers should win by more than 20 points, but since the Colonels are a relatively strong defensive team, the Under should be in play. I also don't expect much fouling at the end of the game in a double-digit Purdue win.
Take the under in this one at 158 and play it to 155.
Pick: Under 158 (Play to 155)
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