DePaul vs Villanova Odds
| DePaul Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
DePaul went on its mini-hot streak, knocking off Villanova and Xavier while keeping it within four against Seton Hall.
Alas, the Blue Demons are 0-5 since.
Meanwhile, this is an almost perfect bounce-back scenario for Villanova, as the Wildcats look to snap a three-game win streak in a revenge spot.
But 9.5 points is a lot to lay, especially with a slow-tempo team like Nova. So, what do we do?
Let's dive into the odds and my prediction for Wednesday's Big East game between DePaul and Villanova.
DePaul Blue Demons
DePaul is a pretty easy team to figure out.
The Blue Demons are a heavy pick-and-roll offense that spaces the floor well. Umoja Gibson is a borderline All-Big East guard (maybe a stretch) and Javan Johnson is an effective running mate.
Defensively, DePaul can force turnovers and score in transition with its athleticism.
But DePaul is severely undersized, especially on the interior. The Blue Demons can get cut up by players attacking the rim, and they're one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation.
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Image Credit: CBB Analytics
DePaul wins when Gibson plays all-world basketball and the team hits 3s. Johnson and Philmon Gebrewhit are important in that regard, given they're the two highest-usage and best spot-up players on the roster.
In its win over Villanova earlier this season, DePaul shot 9-for-23 from deep while Villanova shot 7-for-25. Meanwhile, Gibson stuffed the sheet with 10 points, five assists, two steals and a block.
However, Da'Sean Nelson ended up being the difference maker, with 24 points on 8-for-11 2-point shooting.
Nelson is the small-ball five that usually gets DePaul into rebounding trouble. But he's an explosive athlete, a difference-maker on the offensive glass and the X-factor for the Blue Demons.
Da’Sean Nelson dunks never disappoint pic.twitter.com/swwTauua4D
— Jonah (@BlueDemonJonah) January 21, 2023
The Nelson experience is a shaky one. He does so many things poorly — often looking clueless on both offense and defense — but he can win you games you're not supposed to win.
Villanova Wildcats
It's probably smart to buy low on Villanova. The Wildcats have been injury prone, inconsistent and a bit unlucky from a regression standpoint.
Justin Moore finally got back in the lineup just in time for Nova to take on three of the conference's best teams in Providence, Marquette and Creighton.
Finally, Kyle Neptune and Co. will get some reprieve against a bottom-tier team.
Villanova is playing the same old basketball, running a slow pace, 3-point-heavy offense while mixing in Eric Dixon post-ups. The Wildcats are also lights out from the charity stripe and a good defensive rebounding team.
So, yes, Jay Wright is gone. But the foundations of Villanova basketball remain in place.
Unfortunately, the pieces needed mixing and matching.
After missing seven games to start the year, Cam Whitmore stepped in and has largely lived up to his potential. He's slightly underperformed on offense, but he has great off-ball instincts and is currently Villanova's best defender by EvanMiya's DBPR metric.
Cam Whitmore could do all of this in an NBA game tonight.
timely cuts, finds space, runs in transition. those things translate early.
still trying to develop a firm opinion on him as a prospect, but I really enjoy what he does off-ball. pic.twitter.com/3EvSB2YUeu
— Jake Kerr (@jakeeekerr) February 7, 2023
Caleb Daniels has been the de-facto point guard, with most of the offense running through him. We've seen plenty of Chris Arcidiacono (what else is new), although he's been limited recently.
I'm not out on Villanova. There's a lot to like about this team, including a great mix of young talent and veteran presence.
DePaul vs Villanova Betting Pick
Villanova is a more complete team than the one DePaul faced last month, specifically with Moore back in the lineup.
And not only are we getting the bounce-back revenge spot with Nova, but we're also getting a good regression spot.
ShotQuality graded Villanova's loss to DePaul as an analytical win, indicating better luck is ahead.
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Image Credit: CBB Analytics
In a vacuum, I don't particularly like the matchup for DePaul.
The Blue Demons struggle against off-the-dribble 3s, which is Villanova's bread-and-butter. Meanwhile, DePaul will get nothing in the open floor against the conference's top transition defense.
We're about to see a completely different Villanova team — one with a full roster — against a truly inferior opponent in a bounce-back home game. I expect high-level execution and discipline from the Wildcats in a double-digit victory.
The line is already moving, and I'm trying to play the Cats at DraftKings before they get to -10 across the market.
Pick: Villanova -9.5 |
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