I've made three college basketball picks tonight in the prop market, including a pair of unders for two key Gonzaga players. Check them out below.
College Basketball Picks: Player Props
In the table below, you'll find each of our college basketball staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | |
| 9 p.m. | |
| 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
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Wagner vs. Merrimack
Keyontae Lewis
Over 5.5 Rebounds (-115)
Saint Mary's, which I'll get to later, ranks first in our overall team rebound ranking. Well, Merrimack ranks as the second-worst rebounding team in the country. The Warriors have one of the lowest offensive rebound rates in the country and also allow a ton of offensive rebounds.
Merrimack is a very good defensive team, and Wagner is an awful shooting team. So, Lewis, who has a top-60 offensive rebound rate in the country, could rack up a handful of offensive boards tonight while also cleaning up on the defensive end.
Lewis tends to get into foul trouble often, which can limit his minutes and upside, but I think he’s less likely to get into foul trouble here because Merrimack shoots a ton of 3s and its two centers that Lewis will be guarding both draw fouls at a very low rate.
I'm projecting Lewis for closer to 6.5 rebounds and a 63% chance he clears 5.5. I love his upside here, and it's worth putting a sprinkle on 10+ rebounds at +950 (DraftKings) since I'm projecting that closer to +730.
Pick: Keyontae Lewis Over 5.5 Rebounds (-115)
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's
Ryan Nembhard
Under 13.5 Points (-115)
Nembhard averaged 13.8 points per game in conference play, so this may seem like a good starting point when setting his prop.
However, Gonzaga has averaged 87 points a game in conference play but has a team total of 71 tonight. It makes sense their team total is that low considering Saint Mary’s plays at one of the slowest paces in the country and has a top-20 defense. It’s also the West Coast Conference championship game, so it’ll be even more of a grind.
Nembhard managed to score 20 on the Gaels 10 days ago, but he shot way above expectation and it would be hard for him to duplicate that.
I'm projecting his median closer to 12 points with a 62% chance he stays under 13.5.
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Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's
Nolan Hickman
Under 2.5 Rebounds (-115)
This is a team predictive analytics favorite prop as Nick Giffen and I have frequently attacked Hickman’s under 2.5 rebound at times this season. He’s stayed under this 59% of the time in conference play. However, this is arguably the toughest matchup possible for him to clear this.
Saint Mary’s ranks first in our overall team rebound ranking that factors in strength of schedule. Not only will it be tough for Hickman to grab a few potential rebounds, but there will also likely be fewer opportunities given Saint Mary’s slow pace of play. Hickman only has one total rebound in these teams' previous games this season.
I'm projecting him closer to two rebounds and a 65% chance to stay under 2.5.
