Mike Calabrese and Tanner McGrath are back for another edition of our Pick & Roll. The dynamic duo has college basketball predictions for Saturday.
It’s against our true nature, but Tanner and I have provided our audience with three games on national TV involving four ranked teams.
Luckily, Tanner threw on his hazmat suit and went dumpster diving to pull out a non-conference game between two loser mid-majors, one so obscure that it's the only D-1 program without a conference affiliation in the year of our lord 2023.
And with that, let’s turn to Tom Izzo as an underdog to get things started.
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McGrath's 2 Friday Picks
Why is Sparty struggling so much?
Because they’re getting nothing from their frontcourt.
Zip. Zilch. Zero.
Mady Sissoko is playing awful. Carson Cooper isn’t ready. The two are averaging 7.6 points and 10.6 rebounds per game combined.
Malik Hall has been playing rather admirably at the 4, but he’s not big enough (6-foot-8) to be considered a legitimate interior presence.
So, teams with solid interior presences, like Duke, Arizona, Wisconsin, James Madison, and – to a lesser extent – Nebraska have cooked Sparty inside.
Duke’s Kyle Filipowski dropped 15 on 5-for-9 shooting from 2-point range against Sparty. Arizona shot 22-for-40 (55%) from 2-point range as a team in its six-point win over Michigan State.
The Spartans rank in the 40th percentile of D-I teams in post-up PPP allowed (.88) and the 25th in offensive rebound/put-back PPP allowed (1.18). They’ve also struggled to defend bigger, lengthier wings attacking downhill with no clear rim protection.
Offensively, the Spartans can’t generate enough rim looks, opting for mid-range and weird paint looks instead. And they’re not making their triples, so defenses clog the interior even more against a couple of big men playing lousy hoop.
But here’s the good news for Sparty faithful on Saturday: Baylor’s a guard-heavy team. The Bears have always been a guard-heavy team under Scott Drew.
Yeah, the Bears are experienced down low with Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, and they’re lengthy with 7-footer Yven Missi. They’re also getting decent production from Langston Love, Jayden Nunn and Jalen Bridges on the wing.
But Toledo transfer RayJ Dennis and freshman standout Ja’Kobe Walter run the show. And the Bears post-up on only 2.4% of possessions, the 12th-lowest mark in D-I.
Between Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard, Sparty still has one of the most talented backcourts in the country. These guys can battle with a somewhat inexperienced backcourt playing their first non-home or non-neutral court game (this game is listed as a “semi-away” game for Baylor, being played in Detroit).
It’s time that Michigan State won a big game, and the Spartans should be fired up following two ugly conference losses.
For what it's worth, Tom Izzo generally wakes up when his back is against the wall. It's only happened 12 times, but the legendary coach is 8-4 ATS as a home 'dog in his career, covering the number by an average margin of 4.5 points and generating a 28.7% ROI for bettors.
(I realize this is a semi-home game being played in Detroit rather than East Lansing, but the crowd will be very pro-Sparty on Saturday.)
I also think it’s time that Baylor dropped a game. Yes, the Bears are 9-0 with wins over Auburn, Florida and Seton Hall, but they’ve needed plenty of luck to get there.
If you’re a college basketball fan, I highly recommend subscribing to KenPom’s substack, kenpom’s thoughts. In his latest blurb, the college hoops wizard dove into the five teams that have benefitted the most from 3-point luck this season.
Who tops that list?
Baylor.
The Bears have benefitted from 16.4% 3-point shooting luck between their offense and defense this year.
They’ve made 46% of their 3s this season! The highest nationally by almost four full percentage points! Dennis and Walker have drained 29 of their 67 attempts combined, a 43% clip.
Meanwhile, Baylor opponents have made 27% of 3-point attempts.
For reference, ShotQuality projects those numbers should be around 36% and 34%, respectively.
The Bears are good, but they’re crazy overvalued and due for all sorts of regression.
And the same goes for Sparty, who isn’t going to shoot under 30% from 3 for the remainder of the year. ShotQuality projects that number closer to 35%.
The Spartans are undervalued due to these shooting woes. ShotQuality projects their 4-5 record should be closer to 6-3 based on the “quality” of shot attempts taken and allowed.
It’s a good time for both teams to see two-way shooting regression.
Schematically, I kind of like this matchup for Sparty.
Baylor is among the nation’s heaviest ball-screen teams, letting Walker and Dennis wreak havoc in those sets.
But the Spartans rank ninth nationally in pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed (.46).
Conversely, the Spartans can generate pick-and-roll buckets against a D-I average Baylor ball-screen defense (.70 PPP allowed, 66th percentile).
Also, the Bears' no-middle defensive scheme is best used against dominant wings and big men, as it prevents rim and paint looks, forcing opposing ball-handlers toward baseline isolation opportunities and into dangerous skip passes.
But Sparty doesn't want to score on the interior. They'd rather let Walker create shots in isolation and let Hoggard make those skip passes.
Honestly, I think those two can navigate the no-middle.
But, most importantly, Michigan State can run the floor freely here, as Izzo loves to let his guards rip in the open court (15 fast-break PPG, 92nd percentile), while the Bears rank 323rd nationally in transition PPP allowed (1.14) and allow over 10 fast-break points per game (40th percentile).
Again, we’ll see mostly guard-on-guard crime here, and I like Hoggard/Walker’s chances against Dennis/Walter.
Many larger interior-based teams have exposed the Spartans' frontcourt, but Baylor isn’t that, and the Bears’ less-experienced backcourt is about to face its biggest test of the season. Plus, all of Baylor’s looming regression should hit hard on Saturday in Detroit, especially considering the situational spot screaming Sparty.
So, give me the Spartans over four in a game that ShotQuality and BartTorvik project closer to two.
Pick: Michigan State +4.5 (Play to +2)
What a couple of weeks for Chicago State!
After announcing their impending move to the NEC for 2024-25 – finally ending this strange two-year “independent” run – the Cougars followed it up with a win over ranked Northwestern in Evanston.
Wesley Cardet dropped 30 points, including a few clutch late-game 3s.
Chicago State guard Wesley Cardet absolutely cooked Northwestern tonight:
(36 minutes)
30 points
4 assists
62 FG%Hit clutch shots when it mattered most. Former 4-star recruit. pic.twitter.com/rGmz4Fmqi1
— CBB Content (@CBBcontent) December 14, 2023
While the Cougars should enjoy their moment in the spotlight, you cannot draw up a better letdown spot than this road game at Valpo on Saturday.
Let’s not forget who the Cougars are. They’re a 4-9 independent team ranked No. 321 in KenPom. Aside from the Northwestern win, their three wins came against KenPom No. 336 Southern Indiana, No. 347 Morgan State, and No. 244 Stetson.
They’re big in the backcourt (Cardet is 6-foot-6) but small on the interior (6-foot-7 at the 4 and 5), so their interior defense is non-existent. Opponents are shooting 67% at the rim and 58% from 2.
They can’t shoot from 3 (28.2%) – and aren’t due for much positive regression there because they aren’t generating solid looks – and turn the ball over too often (14 per game).
Now and again, a low-major program will get a career night from their go-to guy and catch a Power Six program sleeping. In the most recent case, the former was Chicago State and Cardet, while the latter was Northwestern off an overtime win over Purdue.
But these low-major teams always crash back to earth, especially the ones with little talent and big problems (i.e., Chicago State).
I’m betting on a letdown game from the high-flying Cougars on Saturday.
Meanwhile, we can buy low on a Valpo team desperate for a win following four consecutive losses, the past three coming on the road. Heading home is precisely what the doctor ordered.
Valpo has only four wins and a semi-lousy loss against Central Michigan on its resume, but the Beacons also have good losses against Virginia Tech, Drake, Illinois, and Belmont. They’ve recently played some tough competition and are due for a big bounce-back performance against a lower competitor.
Even better, they covered the number against the Hokies, Bruins, and Illini. The Beacons are also 3-1 ATS as a favorite this year, so they’re a surprising 6-3 against the number overall.
Valpo is playing some good ball, starting in the backcourt.
JUCO transfer Isaiah Stafford – who won a JUCO national championship at John A. Logan – has stepped into the lead guard role and become a star. His gifted three-level scoring ability is translating, as he’s pouring in over 18 points per night.
Meanwhile, returning guard Darius DeAverio is dishing out over five assists per night, and freshman big man Cooper Schwieger has carved out a role for himself underneath, scoring over 10 points per game between paint and put-back buckets.
First-year head coach Roger Powell comes from the Mark Few coaching tree and runs an off-Few system. The Beacons play with pace on offense, running the floor in transition and utilizing either ball screens or post-up sets in the half-court to generate interior buckets (they rank just 285th nationally in 3-point rate).
So far, they’ve been disgustingly inefficient at running the offense, but I think the Beacons will see some positive regression against a useless Chicago State interior defense.
The Cougars rank 285th nationally in transition PPP allowed (1.09). They rank even worse against ball screens (.84 PPP allowed to ball-handlers and 1.15 to roll-men). And they’re awful against post-up sets (1.02 PPP allowed, 315th nationally).
Again, this is the product of Chicago State’s undersized frontcourt. Valpo’s interior-based offense can take advantage of that.
The last time Valpo faced a severely undersized frontcourt was against Southern on Nov. 25, where the Beacons shot 16-for-31 from 2-point range (51.6%) in a 12-point win – uncoincidentally, their last victory.
I see a similar story unfolding on Saturday.
Remember, the Beacons are working with an entirely new team, including five new starters and a new head coach, and they were immediately thrown to the wolves with a strict non-conference schedule. But the team should improve as the season progresses, which could start on Saturday in their first home game in almost three weeks.
I am concerned about Valpo’s defense, as Chicago State should be able to crash the offensive boards and score in isolation.
But, ultimately, I’m betting the Cougars come out sleepy and fail to capitalize on their advantages. At the same time, I’m betting the desperate, hungry, battle-tested, fresh-faced Beacons put together a full 40-minute performance in a good matchup in front of their home crowd.
This is also a good revenge spot for the Beacons, given Chicago State won this matchup last year by shooting 10-for-16 from 3 while Valpo shot 2-for-11.
ShotQuality projects Valpo as a six-point home favorite on Saturday, so I’ll lay the four and make six the limit.
Pick: Valpo -4 (Play to -6)
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Calabrese's 2 Friday Picks
I’ve been vocal about Purdue’s offensive transformation this season.
The Boilermakers are no longer snails in the tempo department, and it’s worked wonders for them. They’ve risen up to the top of Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, and Zach Edey is somehow playing even better than he did last season.
Edey has slimmed down, has more gas in the tank on a nightly basis, and is the runaway favorite to win National Player of the Year for the second straight year if you believe in rating systems like Evan Miya’s MVP report. Edey’s grade, according to Miya, is a perfect score, which is 26.4% higher than the next player on the list (Colorado State’s Isaiah Stevens).
Purdue is 7-2-1 ATS and 7-3 to the Over.
But I have a feeling this is a bad matchup for the Boilermakers. While they’ve transitioned to a more uptempo style of play, Arizona is engineered for it.
Once Tommy Lloyd took over at the McKale Center, Arizona instantly became an offensive powerhouse.
In year one, the Wildcats finished seventh in adjusted efficiency on the offensive end and ninth in adjusted tempo.
In year two, they maintained a top-15 rating in both metrics. This season, they're sixth nationally in both.
So far this year, the Wildcats lead the nation in scoring (94 PPG) and are the seventh-most accurate team from the field. Defensively, they continue to improve without sending teams to the foul line. Arizona won’t beat themselves this season with turnovers or overly aggressive play that draws whistles.
I love this play because Purdue will fail to push U-of-A out of their comfort zone.
And in the big man department, we’re at a point where you can only really slow down Edey. You can’t stop him.
But I like Arizona’s assortment of bigs, from Oumar Ballo and Keshad Johnson in the starting lineup to Motiejus Krivas and Paulius Murauskas off the bench. Those bigs have as good a chance as any at coaxing a mortal performance out of Edey.
And when it comes to keeping Edey off the glass, they may be his stiffest challenge yet.
The Wildcats can rebound better than just about any team. Arizona ranks first in defensive rebounding percentage and eighth in offensive rebounding percentage.
If they keep Purdue from feasting on the offensive glass, they’re just one cold shooting night from Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith away from a statement victory.
I think they get it done and would play U-of-A down to +1.
Pick: Arizona +2 (Play to +1)
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A bounce-back spot for the Bluejays?
Don’t mind if I do.
Creighton couldn’t throw it in the ocean against UNLV, shooting 27% from 3-point range. Trey Alexander and Steven Ashworth combined to shoot 2-for-16 from the field.
Ashworth, in particular, is due for a positive regression, given his career accuracy figures. He's a career 40% 3-point shooter but is 0-for-7 in the past two games. Heading home is just what the doctor ordered.
This is Alabama’s first road game of the season, and Nate Oats-led teams have historically been mediocre away from T-Town. Since 2019, Oats is just 22-22 ATS on the road, ranking eighth in the SEC.
Then there’s the matchup.
Alabama has faced three top-30 offenses this season (Clemson, Ohio State, Purdue), and they dropped all three by an average of nine points per.
I’m not ready to throw in the towel on Alabama because they have such tremendous upside offensively. But this defense could be a problem moving forward.
Creighton is far more balanced, ranking in the top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency, 10th in assist-to-turnover ratio, and 10th in opponent shooting efficiency.
I also love this play because of two situational angles.
Firstly, there's the home court, which has been very kind to Greg McDermott since taking over in 2010. He’s the second most profitable coach in the Big East on his home floor ATS.
Secondly, and more importantly, he always gets his kids up after a loss. Among Power Conference programs and since CU joined the Big East in 2013, the Bluejays are the seventh-most profitable team in the country following a loss against the spread.
From a pure “outs” perspective, I could see Kalkbrenner’s size and the Bluejays' excellent team defense slowing down an Alabama team that Clemson threw off just three weeks ago.
PJ Hall swatted four shots, and the Tigers held Alabama to a season-low 77 points.
Creighton could replicate that performance with their now-famed “KalkDrop” scheme or break out of their mini-shooting slump and race past an Alabama defense that is getting more mediocre with each passing game.
I wouldn’t lay more than five, but Creighton is the right side.
Pick: Creighton -5
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