One of the best weeks of the sports calendar is here, as we have college basketball daily from morning through midnight as part of Feast Week.
And no game on Monday's slate is better than Gonzaga vs. Purdue from Hawaii. That's why our staff has Gonzaga vs. Purdue predictions, including their spread and total bets to make for November 20.
Gonzaga vs. Purdue Predictions, Maui Invitational Bets
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Gonzaga vs. Purdue
Under 155.5
By D.J. James
Purdue and Gonzaga have both been playing at a much slower pace than expected to begin the season.
The Boilermakers rank 257th in Adjusted Tempo, while also ranking first in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 12th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They don't turn opponents over much (ranked 245th), however, at the moment, they're holding opponents to 21.8% from deep and 44.3% from inside the arc.
Adding on, Purdue is holding opponents to 17.4 seconds per possession on defense. Sure, the Boilers are only three games in, but this is noteworthy.
With two games under its belt, Gonzaga ranks 80th in Adjusted Tempo. It's holding opponents to 18.7 seconds per possession on defense.
Again, the Bulldogs don't turn others over, or at least, they haven't yet this season. They do limit opponents to 20% on the offensive glass, which should help when playing Zach Edey in the post.
Now, Gonzaga ranked 309th in 3-point attempt rate last season, and this has likely carried over to this season.
Gonzaga’s defense should be a bit sharper this season, too. Braden Huff and Anton Watson should help neutralize the offensive machine that is Purdue. Edey is a force, but they can commit to double teams and force him to pass out of the paint.
Given that this is the case, the under should be in play, despite the high-powered offenses here.
Take this from 155.5, and play it to 154.
Pick: Under 155.5 (Play to 154)
Purdue -4
By Doug Ziefel
Feast Week gives us plenty of marquee matchups, but there may be no bigger one than this.
The Boilermakers have gotten off to a dominant start, which features a double-digit win over Xavier. While this matchup is their first real test, they appear to be up to the task from what we've seen thus far.
However, getting a win over Gonzaga in this spot may be much easier said than done. The Zags may have a very different roster this season, but Mark Few's long track record of success has attracted some great talent from the transfer portal.
Purdue has exhibited excellent ball movement thus far. Edey gets plenty of touches in the post, but the backcourt has executed from the extra attention he needs on the low block. In turn, the Boilermakers are fifth in 3-point percentage and 11th in effective field goal percentage.
They should continue their offensive success in this matchup, as Gonzaga lacks the size to contend with Edey and it's also shown it's susceptible from beyond the arc.
While KenPom has the Boilermakers as two-point favorites, they have the chance to make a statement here.
They have the size to control the paint on both ends and the outside shooting to make the Zags pay on the perimeter if they over-commit to Edey in the paint.
Pick: Purdue -4
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Gonzaga +4.5
By John Feltman
This is a spectacular matchup to kick off Feast Week in Hawaii. Purdue is the current favorite to win the National Championship, but to me, I still have some questions about if the Boilers have the chops to make that happen.
Their first legitimate test will be against the Bulldogs in this spot, and I think the market is being a bit disrespectful towards the Zags. Although I don’t think any team in the nation has the frontcourt to contain the Boilermakers' twin-towers of Edey and Will Berg, there isn’t too much of a talent discrepancy here.
I won’t go as far as saying the Bulldogs are better than this Boilermakers team, but considering this is an early-season matchup, I think the books are being a bit generous. I definitely don’t expect a lot of stops in this game, as the Boilermakers are No. 1 in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
The Zags have been excellent on the offensive end themselves, led by Huff and Graham Ike. The Zags are shooting 37% from 3 and are protecting the basketball exceptionally well.
Bulldogs head coach Mark Few will most likely draw up a lot of screens in order to get Edey moving around as much as possible, and his team has the guards to take advantage of those mismatches. However, I wouldn’t expect many stops from his team on the defensive side.
I expect a track meet here, and I think the Bulldogs could even pull off the upset. I would wait as long as possible to bet this number, as there’s a lot of love in the market for Edey and Edeyettes.
Pick: Gonzaga +4.5 (Play to +2)
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