Houston vs Xavier Odds, Pick
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
| Xavier Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | +380 |
The No. 6 Houston Cougars are off to a 7-0 start to begin the season. All seven wins have been by double digits, including a pair of victories over Utah and Dayton in the Charleston Classic.
On Friday, Houston will head to Cincinnati to battle Xavier as part of the Big East-Big 12 Battle.
Xavier will come in at 4-3 thus far this season. The Musketeers have already taken on one top-10 opponent, losing 83-71 to Purdue on the road. Here, Xavier will be looking to shake off being upset by Oakland as a 14.5-point favorite on Monday.
This will be the first-ever meeting between these two programs. Houston is favored by 7.5 points, however, I'm eyeing the total here.
Houston Cougars
While Houston is No. 6 in the AP Top 25, it's KenPom's No. 1 team.
Once again, Kelvin Sampson has another elite defense. Houston leads the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and in scoring defense, with just 49 points allowed per game. The Cougars have allowed just one opponent to crack 60 points this season.
With its usual relentless pressure, Houston is second nationally in turnover percentage. It's forcing 16.7 turnovers per game, with 11 coming via steals.
However, Houston is also 11th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Baylor transfer LJ Cryer was a big-time scorer in Waco, and that hasn't changed in Houston. He leads the team at 17 points per game.
Houston is shooting a respectable 35% from 3, but it ranks outside the top 100 in effective field goal percentage and 2-point field goal percentage. However, it's 10th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, collecting nearly 40% of its misses.
Forward J'Wan Roberts leads the team with 7.7 rebounds per game, and he's one of five Cougars averaging at least four boards per game.
Houston is also 11th in turnover percentage offensively and averages just 8.1 turnovers per game. Given its slow pace, valuing possessions becomes even more important.
Xavier Musketeers
Xavier has three double-digit scorers, with guard Desmond Claude leading the way. The sophomore has taken a big leap into a larger role, as he's upped his scoring average from 4.7 to 16.7 points per game this season. He's also averaging 3.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists per night.
Guard Quincy Olivari is averaging 13.4 points per game, while Gytis Nemeiksa is putting up 10.1 points a contest. Both are dangerous behind the arc, particularly Nemeiksa, who's shooting 47.1% from deep this season.
Xavier is 57th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Its efficiency inside the arc leads the way, as it's making 54% of its 2-point field goal attempts.
However, like Houston, the Musketeers are better on the defensive end. They're 28th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They're holding opponents to 44.5% on 2-point field goal attempts and 27.1% on 3-point field goal attempts, ranking in the top 50 in both categories.
They're also 20th in effective field goal percentage defense this season.
Xavier averages nearly 40 rebounds per game, and it rebounds as a committee, with six players averaging four boards per game.
However, the Musketeers are helped by their tempo in that regard. They rank outside the top 150 in rebounding percentage on both ends of the floor.
Houston should have the advantage on the glass in this matchup.
Houston vs. Xavier
Betting Pick & Prediction
When Houston takes the floor, you can expect that its opponent will struggle to score. However, in this matchup, the Cougars may struggle putting points on the board themselves.
Both teams rank in the top 30 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and they'll both make it difficult to score around the rim.
A physical game inside could lead to fouls. However, Houston is only shooting 63.6% as a team at the foul line, while Xavier is shooting 67.1% itself. Neither may capitalize on a ton of opportunities at the foul line.
Additionally, the under has hit in six of Houston's first seven games this season. In five games, the total was 136.5 or lower.
Three of Xavier's first six games have gone under as well. In all three games, the total was 142.5 or lower, with two games finishing under 136 points.
At 137.5, I have to back the defenses here.
Pick: Under 137.5 (Play to 135.5)
The new ESPN Sportsbook is now online and you can use Action’s ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS for a new user welcome.
