Illinois vs Purdue Odds, Pick
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 151.5 -110o / -110u | +425 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 151.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
With apologies to the reigning national champions, the game of the night in college basketball on Friday is in West Lafayette, Ind. Preseason Big Ten favorite Purdue hosts Illinois, perhaps the top challenger to the Boilermakers’ throne atop the conference.
Of course, the Illini’s quest to topple Purdue took a major hit over the holidays. The school suspended All-American guard Terrence Shannon Jr. indefinitely for horrific off-court accusations, forcing Coach Brad Underwood to adjust the Illinois approach on the fly.
Shannon is one of the country’s best downhill transition players, and the lefty has become a long-range sniper this year as well. Of course, the Illini smoked Northwestern by 30 without him in arguably their best performance of the year, so perhaps the fallout will not be as dire in Champaign.
Can the new-look Illini go into an incredibly tough environment and win without their star? A dominant Purdue team led by 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey makes that a tall task — both literally and figuratively.
Illinois Fighting Illini
For most teams, losing an All-American talent like Shannon would cripple the offense. He was a prolific weapon with or without the ball. His shooting and ability to get to the free throw line gave the Illini offense an easy out late in the shot clock. However, Illinois has looked terrific in his absence.
Without Shannon, Marcus Domask ascended to stardom against Northwestern. Another 6-foot-6 hybrid wing, Domask’s dazzling array of mid-range fadeaways decimated the Wildcats. He is also a willing passer and can torture smaller defenders in the mid-post.
Luke Goode, Quincy Guerrier and Justin Harmon all increase in impact now, as well. Goode ascended into the starting lineup without Shannon, while Harmon has posted 38 combined points off the bench in the two games since Shannon’s suspension. All three can bury open shots.
The key in this matchup, though, is Coleman Hawkins. Likely drawing the Edey matchup on both ends, Hawkins has the skills to punish Purdue’s defense. Hawkins is a great passer from the top of the key — where Edey will not pressure him — and he can put the ball on the floor.
Most importantly, he can knock down perimeter jumpers via pick-and-pop actions when Edey sinks deep into the paint. That kind of spacing from the five spot can break Purdue’s shell, forcing the Boilers into bad switches or long rotations.
Crucially, Hawkins must stay out of foul trouble on the other end. Edey draws more fouls than anyone else in the country; Illinois must find a way to defend him while keeping Hawkins on the floor.
Expect quick double-teams and significantly more playing time for 270-pound center Dain Dainja, who logged just four minutes against Northwestern. The caveat there is that playing Dainja takes away the offensive spacing advantage.
Purdue Boilermakers
The Purdue offense is a well-oiled machine. Matt Painter runs brilliant half-court sets geared toward getting his guys in their best spots, and most of the attack will focus on setting Edey up on the left block or in the middle of the paint. That allows him to go over his preferred left shoulder for a right half hook while still surveying the floor for double-teams.
When Hawkins is at center, expect Purdue to feed Edey relentlessly, allowing him to attack if the Illini fail to bring enough help or feast on open jumpers if they do. The Boilers know Hawkins’ value, and sending him to the bench with early fouls could tilt this game toward the home squad.
When Dainja shadows the towering big man, look for a ton of high-speed dribble handoffs. That forces the slower-footed Dainja to either move in space with Purdue’s guards or surrender straight line drives while staying attached to Edey.
Those guards have become lethal. Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer are assassins both off the bounce and on the catch, and speedy Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones has given the Boilers another dependable ball-handler. All three can put pressure on defenses in various ways.
Illinois vs. Purdue
Betting Pick & Prediction
These two squared off just once last year. In that contest, Illinois impressively kept it close in West Lafayette in the regular season finale. Purdue jumped out to an early lead, getting to the basket and forcing turnovers, but Illinois settled down and only lost by five.
Both teams are better than they were last year (though, that is arguable for Purdue), but some keys from that meeting remain the same. Illinois confused Edey a bit by mixing hard doubles and single coverage, forcing him to rush some finishes. The Illini also largely kept him off the glass, as the monstrous Canadian snagged only six rebounds. Expect a similar treatment on defense to keep Edey guessing.
On the other end, Purdue forced plenty of turnovers against an Illinois team devoid of a true point guard. That issue remains in 2023-24: Illinois turned it over 15 times against Marquette's ball pressure, and the Illini rank just 157th nationally in turnover rate.
The difference here is the improvement of the Purdue backcourt. Smith and Loyer have blossomed as sophomores, including shredding an Arizona defense that is somewhat similar to Illinois in its switch-ability. And Jones’ speed and ball pressure could be pivotal against an Illini team that can get sloppy with it – especially sans Shannon.
Perhaps a small edge: Purdue’s Jones and Illinois’ Domask played together for four years at Southern Illinois and know each other’s games inside and out. For me, that advantage tilts towards Purdue, as Domask is a much larger part of the Illini offense. Jones should have the scout on how to slow him down.
Laying double-digits in a heated conference game is difficult, but this is a major challenge for the visiting Illini without Shannon. While I do not expect this to be a runaway from the jump, I think Purdue wears down the Illini and extends to double-digits in the second half — similar to what it just did at Maryland.
Pick: Purdue -10 (Play to -11)
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