College Basketball Best Bets · NCAA Tournament
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:10 p.m. | |
  | 2:40 p.m. | |
  | 5:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
The final day of the NCAA Tournament's first weekend is here, and we're searching for betting value with eight games on the board.
Here's NCAA Tournament best bets and three picks for Sunday's early games, including Duke vs. James Madison.
Colorado vs. Marquette
By John Feltman
The Buffs are on an absolute tear as of late, and the late-game heroics of KJ Simpson has propelled them into a showdown with the Golden Eagles. There’s no way I’m stepping in front of the Buffs' freight train right now, and they draw a decent matchup here.
First off, the Buffs have a significant advantage in the rebounding department. The Golden Eagles rank outside the top 200 in offensive and defensive rebounding.
The Buffs have to be weary of their turnover issues, as that almost cost them the game against Florida on Friday. The Golden Eagles force a lot of turnovers on defense, so if Colorado stays out of trouble, it should be able to hang tough.
Tyler Kolek’s return is massive for the Golden Eagles, but to me, I don’t think he provides enough of a lift to make them much more superior over the Buffs.
The Buffs’ frontcourt draws a nice matchup against a Golden Eagles team that’s been subpar defending inside of the arc.
Between the trio of Eddie Lampkin Jr., Tristan da Silva and Cody Williams, I sense a lot of opportunities for second-chance scoring opportunities.
The Buffs are also shooting 39% from deep, despite not attempting many 3s per game.
Besides their lack of rebounding ability, the Golden Eagles allow a ton of 3-point attempts on defense. That’s terrifying against a team that just torched the Gators for 102 points.
The Buffs also shoot 78% from the charity stripe and get to the line frequently. The Golden Eagles rarely get to the line and are sporting a terrible 71% free-throw percentage.
As long as they clean up the turnovers, the Buffs not only will cover the number, but will march on to the Sweet 16.
Pick: Colorado +4 (Play to +3)
Utah State vs. Purdue
I genuinely believe that Great Osobor can match up with Zach Edey.
If he can on defense, Utah State can pressure Purdue’s backcourt and close out on the Boilermaker shooters, throwing off the flow of Matt Painter’s offense.
On the other end of the court, I genuinely believe Osobor can score on Edey.
Osobor is among the most versatile big men in college hoops. He has multiple ways to attack the rim or set up his teammates.
The key for Osobor and the Aggies is working through short-roll cutters. The Boilermakers are a poor cut defense (1.24 PPP allowed, 280th nationally), so the Aggies can generate offense by slashing around Edey rather than attacking him directly.
At minimum, Osobor and the Aggies can keep it close. Purdue hasn’t proven it can blow out anyone, anyway.
Pick: Utah State +11.5 (Play to +10)
James Madison vs. Duke
By D.J. James
James Madison over Wisconsin was a trendy first-round pick, but this wasn’t without reason. The Dukes are currently ranked 57th in KenPom, despite playing in the Sun Belt. That’s not easy to do, but this team is sneakily well-rounded, and it dominated Wisconsin from tip-to-buzzer.
JMU can score inside and out. From deep, the Dukes are hitting 36.3% of their 3s. The Blue Devils are allowing opponents to shoot over 35% from outside and rank 92nd in defensive Open 3 Rate, per ShotQuality. The Dukes should be able to hit some deep shots to stay in this game.
Duke is efficient from outside, too, hitting 37.6% from distance. James Madison, however, is limiting opponents to under 29% from beyond the arc, so if the Blue Devils are going to score, they’ll need to take the ball inside, where JMU is a tad weaker.
However, JMU ranks 72nd in points per possession at the rim on defense, so it’s a bit better on the inside than Duke is on the perimeter.
JMU can also turn opponents over, as it showed against Wisconsin. The Badgers ranked in the top 50 this season in offensive turnover rate and still fumbled the ball 19 times. Don’t be surprised if JMU’s pressure gets to some of the Duke guards, since JMU is relentless.
This game could come down to the wire. JMU is a good team and has already knocked off Michigan State and Wisconsin this year.
Is Duke next? Maybe not, but 7.5 points is disrespectful.
Take James Madison to +5.5.
