Purdue vs Iowa Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 165.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 165.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
Editor's Note: Iowa's Patrick McCaffery (ankle) is out today.
The Purdue Boilermakers will head to Carver-Hawkeye Arena for the second leg of their road trip in a matchup against the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Purdue Boilermakers
You can't talk about the Boilermakers without discussing the sheer dominance of 7-foot-4 phenom Zach Edey, who's averaging 22 points and 11 rebounds per game. The star big man has recorded 30-plus points and 14-plus rebounds in consecutive games and now get the most favorable matchup he'll face in conference play. While Iowa freshman Owen Freeman is a promising player, he's an awful post defender. Freeman allows 1.032 points per possession on post-ups, per Synergy. That's a recipe for disaster against Edey, so I'd expect frequent double teams from Iowa.
Dynamic sophomore guard Braden Smith scored only 11 points in the past two games. But Smith tossed 20 assists in the two games as Purdue scored 87 against Indiana and 92 against Penn State. Smith is fully capable of scoring 15-plus, and when that happens, Purdue becomes a totally different monster.
There's no glaring weakness in Purdue's offensive formula. Matt Painter's squad ranks second in offensive efficiency, 14th in effective field goal percentage and shoots 39% from deep. Purdue has all the necessary ingredients to win a national championship, and winning tough Big Ten road games proves how good a team truly is.
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Iowa Hawkeyes
According to just about any bracket projections you'll find, Iowa isn't an NCAA Tournament team right now. The Hawkeyes don't have a single win against a top-50 team in KenPom. However, a win over Purdue would certainly put the Hawkeyes on the NCAA tournament radar.
If you aren't paying attention, you might miss Iowa's lightning-fast offense, which ranks sixth in adjusted tempo. The Hawkeyes play fast but also play under control, ranking 17th in offensive efficiency.
One of the biggest differences is the past three games is the improvement of sophomore Josh Dix. He played decent bench minutes early in the year but is now a starting lineup staple. Dix scored 16 against Nebraska and 21 in the road win over Minnesota, and is a perfect fit for this Iowa team that lacks guard shooting. Tony Perkins is a great downhill initiator, and Dix serves as a reliable catch-and-shoot option.
Coach Fran McCaffery relies on the frontcourt duo of Freeman and Ben Krikke. Freeman is one of the most effective freshman bigs in college hoops, averaging 11 points on 66% shooting in 19 minutes per game. Krikke is a little more versatile than Freeman, with enough range to hit 3s. Iowa must win the frontcourt battle to have a shot at beating Purdue.
Purdue vs. Iowa
Betting Pick & Prediction
The current total of 167 is one of the higher totals I've seen all year. It's not surprising since Iowa ranks 117th in defensive efficiency and boasts an elite offense, while Purdue's offense is equally prolific. Purdue could easily score 85-plus points, like the total is accounting for, but is it likely? The Boilermakers scored 85 or more in three of five conference games, including 87 against Iowa at home. Iowa, however, only scored 68 points in that one despite recording 1.09 points per possession.
This total is about five points too high to me, so I'll gladly take the number at 167 and play that down to 165.
