Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has overtaken Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa atop the NFL MVP odds leaderboard.
That's after Tagovailoa dropped from No. 1 in expected points added per play plus completion percentage over expected (EPA/play + CPOE) to his current mark of No. 4 with a disappointing loss to the Eagles on Sunday Night Football. EPA/play + CPOE is the single most important metric in grading MVP candidates.
Meanwhile, Mahomes rose from his previous mark of the No. 4 quarterback so far this season to No. 3 in the NFL.
And despite a No. 2 rank in EPA/play + CPOE, Bills quarterback Josh Allen saw his odds fall from a +700, third-best mark to a +1000, sixth-best clip after a last minute loss to the Patriots on Sunday. Allen had been the NFL MVP favorite as recently as three weeks ago, after the Bills beat the Dolphins 48-20.
The quarterback with the highest EPA/play + CPOE is 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, who plays tonight vs. the Vikings on Monday Night Football. While his status as the best QB in the NFL so far — according to the advanced metrics — should put him higher up the odds board, the second-year Mr. Irrelevant sits as the fifth-best favorite at +900 at FanDuel.
Purdy doesn't make the wow plays, doesn't have the gaudy stats and is nerfed in the public consciousness by his elite skill position players enough to warrant his current role in the pecking order. Do keep in mind that the NFL MVP is awarded by 50 old-timey journalists who care more about narrative than a sharp bettor or data analyst would — by a substantial degree.
By that same ilk, the keys to winning MVP in a world where 50 old guys vote on the award are straightforward: You need to be a quarterback, you need to put up big-time numbers, your team needs to post 13 or 14 wins and the markets typically love repeat winners.
What do big-time numbers mean? Over the last 15 seasons, MVP winners have averaged about 285 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game. Those numbers are even more buoyed if you take out Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton, who racked up numbers on the ground.
And couple that with a win rate of about 14.1 games over a 17-game season. That's, on average, how the last 15 quarterback MVPs (201-41, 83.1 win %) have fared in the regular season. These MVPs have finished as the No. 1 seed 12 of the 15 times, with two times as a No. 2 seed. The only winner outside of these metrics is Peyton Manning in 2008, which may have been a historically bad win.
And unless there's an absolutely standout candidate, this market favors repeat winners. It's not like the NBA, where being the new guy in town helps.
As it stands, Mahomes fills all of those boxes.
