Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction, Pick | Week 18 Odds
My Cowboys vs Commanders prediction and pick is on the spread, which has the Cowboys installed as 13-point favorites at most sportsbooks. The game total over/under is 47 points.
The Cowboys have been afforded a chance to win the NFC East as the Eagles have stumbled down the stretch. Dallas' matchup on Sunday couldn’t possibly tilt any more in its favor, as the Commanders can't stop aggressive passing attacks and their quarterback, Sam Howell, can't handle pressure.
Let's take a closer look at the matchup and dive into my Cowboys vs Commanders pick for Week 18.
Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction, Pick
Cowboys vs Commanders Odds
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -900 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +600 |
Cowboys vs. Commanders Preview
The Commanders defense ranks 31st in yards per play allowed and their inefficiencies may be the hardest to overcome in today's NFL.
Washington can't bother opposing passers and it does not have the personnel in the secondary to cover either. The Commanders are 31st in defensive pressure rate, which has translated to opposing passers having a 104.1 rating against them.
Surface statistics sometimes mislead bettors and fans alike, but when it comes to the Commanders defense, that's not the case. They are 32nd in passing touchdowns allowed and 31st in interceptions for a reason. Washington’s two starting cornerbacks, Emmanuel Forbes and Benjamin St-Juste, rank 86th and 89th, respectively, in Pro Football Focus' coverage grade.
As if Washington's defense wasn’t already outmatched, it will also be without starting defensive tackle Jonathan Allen on Sunday. Allen, a mainstay in the interior, has been one of the few players able to defeat blocks and create pressure, ranking 16th out of all interior defenders in PFF pass rush grade.
Allen's replacement, John Ridgeway, has played 331 snaps and ranks 124th out of 131 interior defensive players, according to PFF. Needless to say, Allen is a significant loss for a defense already lacking playmakers.
When looking at adjusted net yards per attempt allowed, the Commanders pass defense is historically poor. The gap between their defense and the second-worst unit in this metric (Chargers) is the same as the margin between the Chargers and the 11th-ranked Rams.
Against an aggressive Cowboys air attack led by Dak Prescott, this is a recipe for disaster.
Are you in North Carolina? With North Carolina sports betting coming online in 2024, you’ll be able to bet legally at major sportsbooks. Learn more.
Cowboys vs. Commanders Picks | FanDuel
Maximize your Cowboys vs Commanders action with our FanDuel promo code.
The Cowboys throttled the Commanders 45-10 on Thanksgiving (Week 12) as Prescott completed 68.8% of his passes and averaged 15 yards per completion. His four passing scores and zero sacks taken is the type of performance you see when a team is just outmatched in all areas of the matchup.
Sam Howell accounted for only one turnover in that meeting, but there will undoubtedly be plenty of opportunities for the Cowboys defense to multiply that number Sunday.
Howell has been sacked a league-high 61 times, and once again will have to face the incredible 41% pressure rate of the Cowboys' defensive front. Once Dallas' offense gives its defense an early lead, the defense will have the chance to tee off on a quarterback who has not handled pressure well this season.
In what has become commonplace for Dallas in its blowout wins, a late defensive score as the Commanders play catch up seems rather academic.
Cowboys vs. Commanders Pick & Prediction
You should never take away too much from one game, but the Week 12 meeting between these teams displayed how much styles do make fights.
Dallas can exploit the weaknesses of its opponent on both sides of the ball, regardless of schematic adjustments. I expect the Cowboys to steamroll the Commanders en route to locking up the NFC East title.
