Chargers vs Chiefs Odds & Spread Pick: Week 7
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
Chargers vs. Chiefs odds for NFL Week 7 were on the move on Sunday, with money coming in on Kansas City. The spread for the Chiefs has settled at -6 at most books after sitting at -5.5 for most of the week — FanDuel and DraftKings are still offering -5.5 as of 4:04 p.m. ET. As for the game total, the over/under is 48.5 at most shops.
Justin Herbert had one of the worst games of his NFL career in a primetime 20-17 Monday Night Football loss to the Cowboys, while Kansas City hasn't been in peak form offensively. Patrick Mahomes, though, is still doing enough to ensure the Chiefs don't drop games to inferior opponents.
These teams have played four times since Brandon Staley took over as Los Angeles' head coach in 2021. The Chargers only have one head-to-head win, but they've been tied or led in the fourth quarter of all four meetings. None of the games were decided by more than one score.
Let's preview this AFC West showdown and make our Chargers vs. Chiefs pick.
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Chargers vs. Chiefs
Matchup Analysis
Even despite the poor game on Monday, Herbert is still top 10 in dropback success rate and dropback EPA. I’m not concerned about him just because he missed a bunch of throws he normally makes.
The Chargers have been able to push the ball downfield more often this year under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, especially when you compare it to the Joe Lombardi version of this offense in 2022.
The run game has also taken solid steps forward with increased volume. The biggest key for the Chargers offense overall has been improvements in the red zone. These metrics can be really noisy in small samples, but it's hard not to notice that the Chargers have shot up the red-zone touchdown percentage leaderboard. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have taken a real step back this season without Moore.
The results in the win/loss column haven’t been great because the Chargers have lost three coin-flip games to the Dolphins, Titans and Cowboys, but they haven’t lost a game by more than three yet. Dating back to last year, the Chargers have only lost two games by six or more points with a healthy Herbert.
Bet Los Angeles vs. Kansas City at FanDuel
The Chiefs offense ranks fifth in yards per drive and sixth in points per drive. It’s not quite peak Chiefs offense, but the defense has shown legitimate improvements, ranking top 10 in yards and points per drive allowed. That’s the reason they’ve covered games as favorites more this year.
One reason the Chiefs have not been at their best is the sloppy play of Mahomes. He has nine big-time throws and nine turnover-worthy plays over the first six weeks.
Last year, Mahomes had a 2:1 ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays and a 4:1 TD-INT ratio. His average yards per attempt is down by almost a full yard this season.
I don't think there's reason to be concerned about Mahomes in the medium to long term, but this could just be an example of growing pains with a new offensive coordinator, or just a classic Super Bowl hangover.
Chargers vs. Chiefs
Betting Picks & Predictions
Justin Herbert is 10-1 against the spread in his career as an underdog of three or more points.
Sometimes narratives develop based solely on small samples, but the Staley/Herbert Chargers have been notorious for playing up and down to the level of their competition. Since 2020, the Chiefs are just 14-27 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 or more.
Kansas City really slows the game down as a favorite when leading in the second half — its second-half unders have been profitable for years under Andy Reid.
The Chiefs are extremely effective at ball control and minimizing possessions for the opponent. This was on full display against the Jets and Broncos, as Kansas City effectively killed off those games with long, methodical drives. That doesn't help their chances of getting margin though, and it's another reason why I'd bet the Chargers at +4 or better.
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