NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers | Week 11
Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total or with player props.
This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorer (ATD) market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
Here's my look for the NFL Week 11 Anytime Touchdown Scorer market.
Week 11 Anytime Touchdown Previews
The initial instinct was “Evan Engram has the most targets in the NFL without a TD, this is a great spot for him after scoring two TD vs. the Titans last year.” Wrong. While he may score, the Titans in 2023 have been lights-out against tight ends this season, allowing zero touchdowns and the fewest targets in the NFL to the position.
If you’re betting anyone for the Jags, just go with WR Calvin Ridley at +250 again since the Titans still rank 31st in DVOA when covering opposing WR1s.
For the Titans, it’s set it and forget it if sportsbooks continue to offer RB Derrick Henry at plus odds.
In two games against Jacksonville last season, Henry closed at -125 in Jacksonville and -190 in Tennessee. He only scored at home but still saw 31 carries in Week 18 on the road. Henry is the key cog in the Titans offense with a rookie starting at QB.
Part of the reason we're seeing odds this high is that he didn’t score against the Buccaneers last week. I’ll need more evidence to overturn my conviction for an RB who has historically crushed the Jaguars.
Verdict: Derrick Henry +170 (DraftKings) & Calvin Ridley +210 (PointsBet)
You can have a lot of fun betting TD scorers on this Chargers secondary, which ranks 25th in DVOA against the pass and 28th against opposing WR1s. Oh, and Los Angeles has given up 10 TDs to WR this season, which ranks in the bottom five in the NFL.
I’m riding with Packers WR1 Christian Watson and WR2 Romeo Doubs to take us home. Watson hasn’t scored since Week 2 but is in an excellent get-right spot against a Chargers defense that allows all QBs to look like Pro Bowlers. Doubs, on the other hand, leads the team in touchdown catches and red-zone targets, making him an easy selection.
Verdict: Christian Watson +270 (FanDuel) & Romeo Doubs +290 (PointsBet)
Giants vs. Commanders
Look, I bet Saquon Barkley at +240 last week and it had no chance. Now, he’s at +185 this week and while he may break a long one, there's no chance I'm betting another Giants player with Tommy DeVito at QB.
The Giants are broken, average the fewest points in the NFL and have no standout talents to deserve a bet from me. Consider how sportsbooks feel about this offense: Barkley is the first Giants player listed for TD props at +185. The next one is WR Darius Slayton at … +600?! No thanks.
If the weather cooperates in Washington, I want WR Jahan Dotson. Last season, he cooked the Giants for nine catches, 165 yards and two TDs in these teams' two matchups. In Week 7, it was a downpour and neither offense could get going. There’s no rain in the forecast this time around so at +280, I'm willing to go with him.
Verdict: Jahan Dotson +280 (BetMGM)
This might be another one of those 50-burger games from the Dolphins, who are averaging a ridiculous 43.5 points per home game this season (excluding Germany). QB Tua Tagovailoa has 12 TD passes in those games.
Coming off a bye week and facing a mediocre Raiders secondary makes me believe WR Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle could go off, but so could some bigger long shots like WR3 Cedrick Wilson Jr. He’s scored in each of the last two weeks and with how explosive this offense is, anyone above +500 is worth a stab.
Now, you can talk me into the idea of WR Davante Adams at +225 but nothing less than +200. If I’m going for value, I’ll continue to take Raiders WR2 Jakobi Meyers at +300 instead. Meyers leads the team in receiving TDs and has nearly the same amount of red-zone targets as Adams.
Verdict: Jakobi Meyers +300 (Caesars) & Cedrick Wilson Jr. +550 (FanDuel)
Although they pulled out the win, don’t get it twisted: the Cardinals are still pretty bad defensively at nearly every level. Nearly all the top players for the Texans like TE Dalton Schultz or WR Tank Dell are pretty steamed, though, so they're offering little value.
At this stage, the entire Cardinals offense is QB Kyler Murray, so why not embrace it and take his ATD market? He still looked lightning quick running outside the pocket and scored against a tougher Falcons run defense. Murray’s ATD odds last year ranged from +120 to +210, so I'm willing to take a shot again at +240.
Verdict: Kyler Murray +240 (FanDuel)
Playing at home and indoors, the Lions offense is about to feast.
Jared Goff has historically seen his passing numbers increase across the board at Ford Field and has a mouth-watering matchup against a Bears defense that ranks bottom-five in DVOA in nearly every passing category.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is around +110, so next man up is Josh Reynolds, who has eight touchdowns in 30 career games with Detroit, all of which have been scored at home.
As for the Bears, if QB Justin Fields is coming back, we go back to TE Cole Kmet. He scored in both games against Detroit last season, and the Lions have allowed four TDs to the position this season. In a game that could see more than 50 points scored, I’m willing to take a swing on Kmet at reduced odds.
Verdict: Josh Reynolds +390 (DraftKings) & Cole Kmet +260 (bet365)
Look, I know this is the lowest total of the week at 33 points. I know Dorian Thompson-Robinson is starting for the Browns. But, neither of those factors matters for RB Kareem Hunt.
Hunt has six TDs in the last five games. Now, before you mention Deshaun Watson's absence, it’s worth noting that he only played in one of those games.
Also, in each one of those games that saw Hunt score, they all closed with totals below 40, so the low over/under shouldn't deter this bet. The main number that really matters is Hunt's 14 red-zone carries with the Browns. That’s compared to just nine for Jerome Ford and backup Pierre Strong Jr.
Final note: The Steelers stopped being dummies and finally announced Jaylen Warren as their starting running back. If he’s getting the majority of the carries, this is a smash spot at +275.
Verdict: Kareem Hunt +270 (DraftKings) and Jaylen Warren +275 (bet365)
If Bryce Young and the Panthers aren’t converting third downs, this game will be over by halftime. The Panthers are one of the worst pass-blocking teams in the NFL (ranked 21st), while the Cowboys are first in pass-rush win-rate.
This one is tough because the Panthers DVOA ranks vs. opposingWR1s is bottom-five in the NFL but top-five for WR2 and WR3. The numbers say to take WR CeeDee Lamb and he’s around +110.
The Cowboys, however, are the opposite, ranking third against opposing WR1s but 26th to WR2s. So, let’s throw a dart on D.J. Chark, who has three touchdowns this season, is practicing this week and was playing the WR2 role prior to missing Week 10.
Verdict: CeeDee Lamb +100 (bet365) & D.J. Chark +600 (PointsBet)
Buccaneers vs. 49ers
I’ve bet and cashed a few times on Mike Evans this season but for this matchup, my money is on WR Chris Godwin. He leads the team in red-zone targets with 12 and while he hasn’t scored since Week 8 against the Bills, the 49ers have been getting abused by slot receivers lately.
In the last three games, the Niners let WRs Jordan Addison and Tyler Boyd each score, and those two primarily play in the slot. In last week’s game against the Jaguars, guess who the leading receiver was? Christian Kirk with six catches and 104 yards. Evans may score too because Mayfield consistently looks for him but based on this matchup with the Niners defense, Godwin is the guy I want.
If you’re betting the 49ers, you know Christian McCaffrey is getting the ball near the goal line at least a few times but at -220, he's not the best value for a single bet. Instead, you probably should just keep betting WR Deebo Samuel. He scored last week on a run play while also seeing four targets in his return from injury. We’re in the stretch run of the season now with the Niners, so it’s time for the coaching staff to take the plastic off their toy.
Verdict: Chris Godwin +300 (DraftKings) & Deebo Samuel +155 (FanDuel)
On paper, this looks like a game that could go back and forth with some decent scoring opportunities. Then you realize the quarterbacks are Matthew Stafford and Geno Smith and you start to get uncomfortable knowing a back-breaking interception is coming.
Between them, Stafford and Smith have played 17 games this season. They have a combined 19 passing touchdowns and 14 interceptions. With all the WR talent on these teams, that's a horrible ratio.
That’s why I’d rather just throw a fun dart on Rams WR3 Tutu Atwell at +330 and hope it sticks. The Seahawks' starting corners are going to have their hands full with WR Cooper Kupp and Puka Nakua. Atwell fits the bill to beat the Seahawks on a long pass to the end zone.
Verdict: Tutu Atwell +340 (PointsBet)
I can’t do it. I’m sorry. There’s just no way you can bet on a Jets ATD prop you feel has a legitimate chance to hit or that you’re getting the proper value on the bet. That’s why I can’t endorse WR Garrett Wilson at +210.
Even though the Bills struggle to contain WR1 (25th in DVOA) and their pass defense overall is in shambles, you’re still asking Zach Wilson, who’s completing less than 60% of his passes and only has five passing TDs in nine games, to muster up some offense. Hell, the Jets are only completing 25% of their third-down conversions. Wilson should be at least +300.
Verdict: Hard pass unless you want to bet Dalton Kincaid +200 (FanDuel)
NFL Week 11 ATD Best Bets
Derrick Henry
Anytime Touchdown (+180)
Still the focal point of Tennessee’s offense, Henry has 17 red-zone carries this year and historically gets stronger as the season goes along.
Henry has owned the Jags in his career. In 13 games, he has 1,373 rushing yards and 15 TDs. The most of any player against the Jaguars all time. In two games against the Jags last year, he had 47 carries, 230 yards and one TD.
The Jaguars defense is much stronger this season, but they did give up 144 rushing yards to the Niners last week.
Part of the reason why we're seeing odds this high is because he didn’t score vs the Buccaneers last week.
Chris Godwin
Anytime Touchdown (+300)
Godwin only has one touchdown this season, but he leads the Bucs in red-zone targets (12).
The 49ers have been getting abused by slot receivers lately. In the last three games, here’s how slot receivers have fared:
- Christian Kirk: 6 catches, 11 targets, 104 yards
- Tyler Boyd: 3 catches, 3 targets, 40 yards, TD
- Jordan Addison: 7 catches, 10 targets, 123 yards, 2 TDs
When these teams played last year, Godwin led the Bucs in catches, targets and yards. In a tough, physical game, Godwin is the guy I want.
Davante Adams
2 TDs (+2000)
I’m finally doing it. I’m taking my kick at the can for Adams.
Historically a touchdown machine, Adams still has the most receiving touchdowns in the NFL since 2020. It’s been tough sledding this season – only three touchdowns – due to the Raiders’ poor quarterback play.
Last year through 10 games, Adams had 10 TDs with three games with 2 TDs scored.
The Dolphins defense should be better with Jalen Ramsey, but Adams will see double-digit targets. I have to take a swing at +2000 in a decent matchup.
Josh Allen
2 TDs (+1100)
Allen has logged a rushing touchdown in 7-of-10 games and is currently on a four-game scoring streak. He’s tied with Jalen Hurts for the most rushing TDs for a quarterback (seven).
The Jets defense is one of the best in the league and ranks fourth in defensive pass DVOA. They’ve only allowed one touchdown to a receiver this season – that was all the way back in Week 1 to Stefon Diggs.
Allen leads the league in interceptions, notably throwing three in that Week 1 game. At the goal-line using his legs is the way to go – he has 17 red-zone carries this season.
