Week 3 is already off to a better start for our live bets, with our over pick around halftime on Thursday night cashing easily. We'll continue to try to target games with plenty of consistency from last year, since that made the analysis much easier on Thursday.
Weeks 1 and 2 have given us some information about how teams want to play this season, but not enough to draw any firm conclusions, especially in the case of teams that led — or trailed — most of the way. We don't have much of a way to know how they'll behave in the opposite scenario, other than some educated guesses based on what we know about the coaching staff.
Still, we'll be using that information to inform our decisions in Week 3. Here's the spots we're targeting:
The Live Bets We're Targeting on Sunday Night Football in NFL Week 3
Raiders vs. Steelers: Unders With a Raiders Lead (Or Pass)
This is certainly a game we'd be avoiding were it not in a primetime spot, with two slow, ineffectual offenses and no massive pace tendencies.
The one possible exception is if Pittsburgh is playing from behind. That projects as the slowest game flow scenario, as well as a tough one for both offenses. We'd assume more Steelers passing and more Raiders rushing if that happens, and the Steelers ranks 32nd in offensive passing DVOA, while the Raiders rank 32nd in offensive rushing DVOA.
The problem is that both defenses are also bad in that scenario, so we have some easily stoppable forces running into highly movable objects. If this total spikes from the pregame 43.5 thanks to some points from the Raiders we might take a swing, otherwise let's go to bed early and get ready for Monday's doubleheader.
The Week 3 Sunday Live Bets We Targeted for 1 p.m. Games
Browns vs. Titans: Overs With a Titans Lead, Unders With a Browns Lead — LIVE BET MADE, UNDER 35.5 (-112, Points Bet)
We don't love the number — which has dropped to 35.5 — but the scenario is near perfect in Cleveland. As anticipated, the Browns are getting next to nothing on the ground, averaging 1.7 yards per rush. On the other side, Tennessee's passing game is producing around 5yards per attempt. With Cleveland up by 10, we should see more of both those things, and less points. We'll take under 35.5 (-112) on PointsBet.
Here's how we broke down the live betting scenario for this game before kickoff:
It's nice when both the pace splits and the team's strengths and weaknesses align. This is exactly one of those instances, with both defenses set up in a way to point to clear scenarios based on game script.
The Titans are an extremely tough run defense that frequently forces opponents to the air. They rank 2nd in DVOA against the run, but just 23rd against the pass. That makes it tough for opponents to move the ball in "clock killing" mode, which gives Tennessee a chance to catch up when trailing. Unfortunately, they're taking on a Browns team that's much tougher against the pass — ranking 2nd in DVOA themselves.
Therefore, game scripts where Cleveland is running at a higher rate and Tennessee is throwing at a higher rate will limit efficiency for both teams. Based on their play styles, it will also limit the total number of plays. Cleveland played at a below average pace last season with a lead, while the Titans were slower than average from behind. This has carried over into 2023, with Cleveland the second slowest team when up by at least 7 and Tennessee bottom five when trailing — though the sample sizes are relatively small.
The inverse is also true, where both teams should be more efficient if the Browns are throwing and the Titans are feeding Derrick Henry. The pace splits aren't as extreme, but both teams were on the faster side in this scenario last season as well. This is the slightly likelier scenario based on the Browns favored by three, but either one could come about.
Obviously, we're also hoping for corresponding movement on the total with either scenario — that would be an elevated number if Cleveland is in front or a lower one with the Titans in control. We don't need to be super picky on the number if the scenario holds firm, though, since everything lines up so well.
Other fringe options include the Titans to cover the live spread should they fall well behind — since it's hard for the Browns to eat up clock with a lead, especially without Nick Chubb. A close game also should skew under here, although in that case we'll want a much higher total than the pregame 38, as the splits aren't as strong.
NFL Live Betting Afternoon Slate: A Variety of Options
The later slate on Sunday is an ugly one, with two likely blowouts and a Panthers-Seahawks game that looks to be fairly unexciting. We might end up passing on this one entirely, but here's a situation to watch in each game.
Seahawks vs. Panthers: Second Half Overs — LIVE BET MADE, OVER 47.5 (-114, FanDuel)
The Panthers and Seahawks have combined for 25 points, but they have five field goals and a touchdown. Odds are some of those drives will turn into touchdowns in the second half, so let's take over 47.5 (-114) on FanDuel.
Here's how we broke down the live betting scenario for this game before kickoff:
This one is a bit tenuous, but both teams have played considerably quicker in the second halves of games this season. It's a stretch because the Panthers are 0-2, and the Seahawks are 1-1 with a late comeback — both teams have spent the bulk of the second half playing from behind. Still, the Panthers passing attack should be better with Andy Dalton in for Bryce Young.
To bet this one, we'd need some evidence of both teams moving the ball well but not putting up points — drives stalled in the redzone, unfortunate turnovers, etc. — and a total below the pregame 42.
Chiefs vs. Bears: Overs With a Chiefs Lead
Another one where we're reaching a bit, but there just might be an angle. Did you know the Bears traded up to draft Mitch Trubisky over Patrick Mahomes? I bet you did know that — and so does Mahomes. He could pour it on in this one to continue to run that mistake in Chicago's face. The last time these teams met, Kansas City won 26-3.
The other part of this angle is that Kansas City plays man coverage at an above average rate, which traditionally benefits rushing quarterbacks. Justin Fields hasn't gotten much going with his legs this season, but he's faced a heavy dose of zone defense. If Kansas City doesn't switch up their coverage, Chicago could find some more success offensively, especially on called pass plays.
As expected, wait for a better number than the pregame 48.5.
Cardinals vs. Cowboys: Second Half Unders (Assuming Dallas Controls the Game) — LIVE BET MADE, OVER 51.5 (-110, FanDuel)
With the Cardinals getting a first down thanks to a Dallas penalty, we chose to hurry up and lock in the Over in Dallas. The best line was 51.5 (-110) at FanDuel.
Here's how we broke down the live betting scenario for this game before kickoff:
With Dallas favored by a dozen or so points, this one isn't expected to be competitive. I'm anticipating the Cowboys take their foot off the gas if they run away with this one, and probably give lead back Tony Pollard a bit of a rest.
If that happens, it's hard to see where points come from in this one. Arizona is unlikely to get anything going against the Cowboys pass defense that ranks #1 in DVOA in the league (They rank first in run defense, too) and Dallas is better served protecting their starters than running up the score.
The pregame line is 43.5, but we could see it jump up a bit if Dallas has something like a 24-3 lead at the half, in which case we'll take the under.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
